Iowa is tenuous

Insiders: Trump’s grip on Iowa is tenuous

POLITICO Caucus shows Cruz gaining ground and Clinton pushing Sanders aside in the early voting states.

By Steven Shepard

After months of waiting for Donald Trump’s decline, Republican insiders now concede the poll leader could take two of the first four early voting states, though they caution his hold on Iowa is weak.

That’s according to the POLITICO Caucus, our weekly poll of the top strategists, operatives and activists in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada.

For this Thanksgiving holiday week, POLITICO analyzed seven months-worth of responses to our weekly benchmark question – who would win your state if the voting were today. The result offers a snapshot of the current state of primary play – with Trump, Cruz, and Rubio grappling for wins in the early states – and chronicles Republicans’ slow acceptance of the real estate mogul as a contender with staying power.

Roughly three-in-four GOP insiders in New Hampshire and South Carolina, many of whom have been repeatedly and consistently skeptical of Trump’s chances, now say he would win their states if their primaries were held today.

“For the first time, I think the Trump phenomenon is becoming real,” a South Carolina Republican said.

“I do not think the media or the party establishment have a real grasp on how deep the anger and frustration is around the country,” that insider said when most recently surveyed last week. “After what have been ‘missteps’ by Trump in comparison of previous elections, he seems to have only strengthened. I still do not know if he can sustain it into the New Year – but after the Paris attacks, his stance on illegal immigration and unverified people coming into our nation has real impact.”

But his hold on Iowa and Nevada is more tenuous, according to insiders who note those states’ caucuses require significant organizational muscle to produce a win.

GOP insiders now have Cruz nudging Trump out of the lead in Iowa. That prediction came even before a Quinnipiac University poll this week showed the Texan running neck-and-neck with Trump. Neurosurgeon Ben Carson was the only other candidate to register significantly on this question. It’s the first time Cruz has led on this measure – after months of Trump and, briefly, Carson in front.

“I remain skeptical that Donald Trump's organization could turn out enough supporters today to win, and Ben Carson is fading on growing concerns that he's simply not up for the job,” said an Iowa Republican. “Cruz has been building – and continues to build – a solid organization. I'm not saying it won't change, although I've thought for some time now that Ted Cruz will win the Iowa caucuses – but this is the first week I'd put him on top in Iowa.”

Still, the third of Iowa insiders who said Trump would win insisted he has built the campaign infrastructure to turn out his voters, even if they aren’t traditional caucus-goers. “Trump still has the best ground game and organization in the state,” one insider said.

In Nevada, insiders were divided between Trump and Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, who has an organization in the state built somewhat on his appeal among Mormon voters, who made up about a quarter of the electorate, according to entrance polls. Rubio has consistently polled second in Nevada among GOP insiders since The POLITICO Caucus expanded there in early October.

“[Rubio] continues to have the best structure in the state that will actually turn people out on caucus-day,” said one Nevada Republican.

Trump wasn’t always in such a dominating position. Before Trump entered the race in June, Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, who ended his campaign in September, was the odds-on favorite in neighboring Iowa: In weekly surveys from mid-April through the end of June, Walker was picked as the winner of the Iowa caucuses by more than 70 percent of Republican insiders. In New Hampshire, Bush was picked by two-thirds of insiders over the same time period.

The Caucus expanded to South Carolina and Nevada in early October – well after Trump’s surge to the top of the polls. But results have consistently shown Trump stronger in South Carolina – more than three-in-five insiders in October said he would win there at the time – than in Nevada, where a smaller plurality, about 45 percent, picked Trump.

Hillary Clinton has stymied Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders’ summer surge, according to Democratic insiders in the same four early states surveyed by POLITICO. Insiders said overwhelmingly in all four states that Clinton would win if the caucuses or primaries were held today.

While members of The POLITICO Caucus have always leaned more than the public opinion polls toward Clinton, Sanders had closed the gap – especially in New Hampshire – over the summer. In late June and early July, roughly a quarter of New Hampshire said Sanders would win the first-in-the-nation primary there if it were held that day.

But now only a handful of insiders say Sanders would win today in their states. “Hillary's organization in Nevada is large and very competent in its work preparing for our caucus,” said one Democrat. “Bernie might actually be more popular among active Democrats.”

A small fraction of insiders said the fervor of Sanders’ supporters will carry the day. “Sanders has a lot of working class support,” said an Iowa Democrat. “The proof of his support, though, will be evident at the precinct caucuses.”

Back in New Hampshire, where Sanders had posted his strongest leads in the polls, Democratic insiders are convinced Clinton has halted Sanders’ ascent.

“Sanders has lost momentum,” said one Democratic insider. “The race has become about more than income inequality, and his more limited focus/message – in contrast to Clinton's breadth and depth – has become a weakness. Also, as voters get more engaged and serious, the electability factor is also starting to become more important, helping Clinton [and] hurting Sanders.”

Another Democrat in New Hampshire was even more blunt, writing simply: “It is so over.”