By MICHAEL R. GORDON and ERIC SCHMITT
With Russian-backed separatists pressing their attacks in Ukraine, NATO’s military commander, Gen. Philip M. Breedlove, now supports providing defensive weapons and equipment to Kiev’s beleaguered forces, and an array of administration and military officials appear to be edging toward that position, American officials said Sunday.
President Obama has made no decisions on
providing such lethal assistance. But after a series of striking reversals that
Ukraine’s forces have suffered in recent weeks, the Obama administration is
taking a fresh look at the question of military aid.
Secretary of State John Kerry, who plans to
visit Kiev on Thursday, is open to new discussions about providing lethal
assistance, as is Gen. Martin E. Dempsey, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of
Staff, officials said. Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel, who is leaving his post
soon, backs sending defensive weapons to the Ukrainian forces.
Fearing that the provision of defensive
weapons might tempt President Vladimir
V. Putin of Russia
to raise the stakes, the White House has limited American aid to “non-lethal”
items, including body armor, night-vision goggles, first aid kits and
engineering equipment.
But the failure of economic sanctions to
dissuade Russia from sending heavy weapons and military personnel to eastern
Ukraine is pushing the issue of defensive weapons back into discussion.
“Although our focus remains on pursuing a
solution through diplomatic means, we are always evaluating other options that
will help create space for a negotiated solution to the crisis,” said Bernadette
Meehan, a spokeswoman for the National Security Council.
Fueling the broader debate over policy is an
independent report to be issued Monday by eight former senior American
officials, who urge the United States to send $3 billion in defensive arms and
equipment to Ukraine, including anti-armor missiles, reconnaissance drones,
armored Humvees and radars that can determine the location of enemy rocket and
artillery fire.
Michèle A. Flournoy, a former senior Pentagon
official who is a leading candidate to serve as defense secretary if Hillary
Rodham Clinton is elected president, joined in preparing
the report. Others include James G. Stavridis, a retired admiral who served
as the top NATO military commander, and Ivo Daalder, the ambassador to NATO
during Mr. Obama’s first term.
“The West needs to bolster deterrence in
Ukraine by raising the risks and costs to Russia of any renewed major
offensive,” the report says. “That requires providing direct military assistance
— in far larger amounts than provided to date and including lethal defensive
arms.”
In his State
of the Union address last month, Mr. Obama noted that the sanctions imposed
by the United States and its allies had hurt the Russian economy.
But American officials acknowledge that
Russia has repeatedly violated an agreement, reached in Minsk in September. The
agreement called for an immediate cease-fire in Ukraine, the removal of foreign
forces and the establishment of monitoring arrangements to ensure that the
border between Ukraine and Russia would be respected.
In recent weeks, Russia has shipped a large
number of heavy weapons to support the separatists’ offensive in eastern
Ukraine, including T-80 and T-72 tanks, multiple-launch rocket systems,
artillery and armored personnel carriers, Western officials say.
Some of the weapons are too sophisticated to
be used by hastily trained separatists, a Western official said. NATO officials
estimate that about 1,000 Russian military and intelligence personnel are
supporting the separatist offensive while Ukrainian officials insist that the
number is much higher.
Supported by the Russians, the separatists
have captured the airport at Donetsk and are pressing to take Debaltseve, a town
that sits aside a critical rail junction.
All told, the separatists have captured 500
square kilometers — about 193 square miles — of additional territory in the past
four months, NATO says. The assessment of some senior Western officials is that
the Kremlin’s goal is to replace the Minsk agreement with an accord that would
be more favorable to the Kremlin’s interests and would leave the separatists
with a more economically viable enclave.
The administration’s deliberations were
described by a range of senior Pentagon, administration and Western officials,
who spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were talking about internal
discussions.
A spokesman for General Breedlove declined to
comment on his view on providing defensive weapons, which was disclosed by
United States officials privy to confidential discussions.
“General Breedlove has repeatedly stated he
supports the pursuit of a diplomatic solution as well as considering practical
means of support to the government of Ukraine in its struggle against
Russian-backed separatists,” the spokesman, Capt. Gregory L. Hicks of the Navy,
said. But a Pentagon official familiar with the views of General Dempsey and
Adm. James A. Winnefeld Jr., the vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff,
said they believed the issue of defensive weapons should be
reconsidered.
“A comprehensive approach is warranted, and
we agree that defensive equipment and weapons should be part of that
discussion.” the Pentagon official said.
Russian casualties remain an unusually delicate
political issue for Mr. Putin, who has denied that Russian troops have been
ordered to fight in Ukraine.
The report by Ms. Flournoy and the other
former officials argues that the United States and its allies should capitalize
on this fact to dissuade the Russians and the separatists from expanding their
offensive.
“One of the best ways to deter Russia from
supporting the rebels in taking more territory and stepping up the conflict is
to increase the cost that the Russians or their surrogates would incur,” Ms.
Flournoy said in an interview.
The current stock of Ukrainian anti-armor
missiles, the report notes, is at least two decades old, and most of them are
out of commission. So the report recommends that the United States provide the
Ukrainian military with light anti-armor missiles, which might include Javelin
antitank missiles.
”Providing the Ukrainians with something that
can stop an armored assault and that puts at risk Russian or Russian-backed
forces that are in armored vehicles, I think, is the most important aspect of
this,” she added.
The Obama administration has provided radars
that can locate the source of mortars. But the report urges the United States to
also provide radars that can pinpoint the location of longer-range rocket and
artillery fire. Enemy rocket and artillery attacks account for 70 percent of the
Ukrainian military’s casualties, the report says.
Ukraine, the report notes, also needs
reconnaissance drones, especially since the Ukrainian military has stopped all
flights over eastern Ukraine because of the separatists’ use of antiaircraft
missiles supplied by Russia.
The report also urged the United States to
provide military communications equipment that cannot be intercepted by Russian
intelligence.
Poland, the Baltic States, Canada and
Britain, the report says, might also provide defensive weapons if the United
States takes the lead.
The report was issued jointly by the Atlantic
Council, the Brookings Institution and the Chicago Council on Global Affairs.
The other officials who prepared it are Strobe Talbott, who served as deputy
secretary of state in the Clinton administration; Charles F. Wald, a retired Air
Force general who served as deputy commander of the United States European
Command; Jan M. Lodal, a former Pentagon official; and two former ambassadors to
Ukraine, John Herbst and Steven Pifer.
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