In their heads... What Tea Party people think...

Inside the GOP: Report on focus groups with Evangelical, Tea Party, and moderate Republicans

 

Stan Greenberg, James Carville, and Erica Seifert

If you want to understand the government shutdown and crisis in Washington, you need to get inside the base of the Republican Party. That is what we are doing in the Republican Party Project and these focus groups with Evangelicals, Tea Party, and moderate Republicans. All the passion, nuances and divisions found expression when we conducted this work in the summer.

Understand that the base thinks they are losing politically and losing control of the country – and their starting reaction is "worried," "discouraged," "scared," and "concerned" about the direction of the country – and a little powerless to change course. They think Obama has im-posed his agenda, while Republicans in DC let him get away with it.

We know that Evangelicals are the largest bloc in the base, with the Tea Party very strong as well. For them, President Obama is a "liar" and "manipulator" who has fooled the country. It is hard to miss the deep disdain—they say the president is a socialist, the "worst president in history," and "anti-American."

For all that, this is a deeply divided base. Moderates are a quarter of those who identify Re-publican, and they are very conscious of their discomfort with other parts of the party base. Their distance begins with social issues, like gay marriage and homosexuality, but it is also evident on immigration and climate change. Fiscal conservatives feel isolated in the party.

Evangelicals who feel most threatened by trends embrace the Tea Party because they are the ones who are fighting back. They are very in tune politically, but the Tea Party base is very libertarian and not very interested in fighting gay marriage.

Republicans shutdown the government to defund or delay Obamacare. This goes to the heart of Republican base thinking about the essential political battle. They think they face a victorious Democratic Party that is intent on expanding government to increase dependency and therefore electoral support. It starts with food stamps and unemployment benefits; expands further if you legalize the illegals; but insuring the uninsured dramatically grows those de-pendent on government. They believe this is an electoral strategy—not just a political ideology or economic philosophy. If Obamacare happens, the Republican Party may be lost, in their view.

And while few explicitly talk about Obama in racial terms, the base supporters are very conscious of being white in a country with growing minorities. Their party is losing to a Democratic Party of big government whose goal is to expand programs that mainly benefit minorities. Race remains very much alive in the politics of the Republican Party.

These are strong common currents in the Republican base, but the thinking and passions are very distinct and telling among the key blocs – and those have consequences for those who seek to lead.

Evangelicals.
Social issues are central for Evangelicals and they feel a deep sense of cultural and political loss. They believe their towns, communities, and schools are suffering from a deep "culture rot" that has invaded from the outside. The central focus here is homosexuality, but also the decline of homogenous small towns. They like the Tea Party because they stand up to the Democrats.
 
Tea Party.
Big government, Obama, the loss of liberty, and decline of responsibility are central to the Tea Party worldview. Obama’s America is an unmitigated evil based on big government, regulations, and dependency. They are not focused on social issues at all. They like the Tea Party because it is getting "back to basics" and believe it has the potential to reshape the GOP.
 
Moderates.
Moderates are deeply concerned with the direction of the country and believe Obama has taken it down the wrong path economically. They are centrally focused on market-based economics, small government, and eliminating waste and inefficiency. They are largely open to progressive social policies, including on gay marriage and immigration. They disdain the Tea Party and have a hard time taking Fox News seriously.
 
When a Macomb County focus group participant shot back, "No wonder they killed him" after I read a statement by Robert Kennedy, that stopped me and led to a whole new analysis of Reagan Democrats – and what were the core blockages to working whites voting Democratic again. These groups with core Republican voters had similar moments – but more important, these emerged as affinity groups where the participants worked through their alienation and isolation, not just from politically correct-liberal dominated media, but other Republicans, family members, and neighbors. If you want to know why Republicans are at war internally, start with their voters who are in turmoil.

While we always reassure people of anonymity to allow open discussion, this was the first time ever in our groups when the participants asked at various points whether the NSA was listening in or whether their handouts were going to the IRS. At the end of the group in Roa-noke, one man left his handout and noted, "It’s probably digital, so you can check it on the NSA files." He laughed, but it was raised multiple times throughout the groups with Evangelicals. Some of the Tea Party men in Raleigh half-joked that the focus group was being moni-tored by the IRS.

Now you’re going to guarantee that what we put down here, we won’t be getting a call from the IRS about an audit or anything like that?  That did cross my mind when I did the first phone call and she was asking all the questions. I said, ‘I’m going to get a call from the IRS when this is done.’

The Evangelicals—who seem the most on the defensive when discussing popular culture, demographic trends, changes in the family, and what is happening in their states—wrote post-cards at the conclusion of the groups and commented what a relief it was to be with people who think like they do.  "I’m not alone in the way I view things for the most part. "

"Republicans are not the same as they were 50 years ago and need to go back to their standards."

"Not by myself in thought process. … Thought it was a great conversation and very informative. Thank you for the opportunity."

"Good to be around like minded people. All of the people feel the country is in trouble due to the Democratic Party. Hope and pray that this will turn around."

While our methodology is for groups to be homogenous to encourage free discussion, we discovered here that the focus group became the opportunity to express opinions they feel on the defensive about in real life.

The moderates who are uncomfortable with their own party on social issues used the private post cards at the end of two hours to express surprise there are other Republicans who think like themselves. While we did not use the word "moderate" in the focus group script, they used the word self-consciously in their postcards.

 "Surprised at other females with fiscal conservative values while also being social more moderate. …"

"I was surprised that the group was more moderate on social issues, like I am. It seems that this group focused on the fiscal aspect of Republicanism as the main component. "

"Discussion on "hot button" issues and how people with varying backgrounds seems to have middleground… "

"Many people are moderate because of $ issues & social issues."

"The common desire for a more moderate political party."

Again, we underscore the uniqueness of what is happening in the Republican Party. We conduct homogenous groups to replicate real life homogeneity where people can feel free to talk about their feelings and emotions. We think this is what people say around the water cooler or a family dinner. But for the first time for me, it felt like we were creating a safe space where Republican voters could express feelings freely—and they did.

We expected that in this comfortable setting or in their private written notes, some would make a racial reference or racist slur when talking about the African American President. None did. They know that is deeply non-PC and are conscious about how they are perceived. But focusing on that misses how central is race to the worldview of Republican voters. They have an acute sense that they are white in a country that is becoming increasingly "minority," and their party is getting whooped by a Democratic Party that uses big government programs that benefit mostly minorities, create dependency and a new electoral majority. Barack Obama and Obamacare is a racial flashpoint for many Evangelical and Tea Party voters.

While many voters, even some Democrats, question whether Obama is succeeding and getting his agenda done, Republicans think he has won. The country may think gridlock has won, particularly during a Republican-led government shut down, but Republicans see a president who has fooled and manipulated the public, lied, and gotten his secret socialist-Marxist agenda done. Republicans and their kind of Americans are losing.

Liar’ is virtually the first association in all the groups – from Tea Party to moderates. That is a visceral separation and reason to not listen to him. But in the context of a re-elected president getting his way, it is an expression of deep frustration with the country and people who believe him.

They think he is manipulating words, using props and teleprompters to communicate a false narrative to claim success for his governance.

The Tea Party participants described him as a "spin doctor," "misleading," "slick," "slimy," "untrustworthy," "condescending," and "an SOB."  "He’s even slicker than Clinton." "I just think he’s a little bit slimy."

"He reminds me of a used car salesman. He’s just trying to sell you something regardless of how good it is."

"I had a concussion so they had to ask me a bunch of questions ‘cause my mind wasn’t quite working and they said, ‘who’s the President?’ And I said, ‘an S.O.B.’ and he said, ‘good enough.’ "

They talk about him as though he is a manufactured object, created by great political operatives.

"I think he’s a marketing miracle because he was built. He was constructed by marketing. The logo – what presidential campaign has had that kind of a logo and that kind of a visual – the posters, the colors, the way he was portrayed in the logo."
 
"He can tell every single person exactly how they want to hear what they want to hear."  
"When the teleprompter’s not there, he really falls apart. So I don’t know how much of all of this is him or if it’s his staff or whoever the Democratic Party is – and he’s just the figurehead."

When they watch a TV video of President speaking on the Affordable Care Act, the Evangelical women in Colorado Springs wrote down some pretty harsh and dismissive things: "Spin Dr" and "Chronic liar"; "fake"; "lies"; "just a speech"; "liar," "bullshit." But the moderate men there were almost indistinguishable: "He could grow some items with the B/S he is spewing"; "Lies, lies, Lies, Lies, Lies!!!!!!!"; "lies," "disregards real facts"; "Socialism," "Lies, Lies, Lies"; "Health care lies."

Not surprisingly, all the groups think Obama is about big government and big wasteful spend-ing. But in Evangelical and Tea Party groups participants think he is trying to fool the middle class with a more palatable patina while pursuing a darker, secret, socialist agenda.

"Even when he’s trying his hardest to appease conservative capitalist-oriented people…he still is spouting pure Marxist philosophy. He can’t get away from it… I don’t know if he can…even find a speechwriter that can help him sound like he’s actually an American capitalist."
"Obama’s…just pure distilled Marxism."

"We’re not on his agenda. And he thinks these are things he should say to appease us, because we’re middle class. We want jobs. We care about energy. We care about whatever his talking points are. And yet…he can’t stop the ultra-liberal Marxist bleeding through what he’s trying to say. "

And when asked what is going right in the country, a Tea Party woman in Roanoke joked, "Well, we’re not a communist nation.... yetThey think President Obama is on the verge of using his powers to pursue his agenda without limits. That is evident in the frequent discussions about executive orders and action: "When Congress is gone…he just does an Executive Order. He’s going to get anything he wants. And there’s nobody there that will have the guts enough to stand up to him"; "There’s so many secret things that go on – that are – bills are passed and regulations are passed – we never know about."

Much more troubling was the fear of NSA and IRS being turned against the Republican opponents of the government,
 
"That’s a big thing right now is when they were spying on us and looking at all the stuff and you know I mean years ago my parents were talking about it. They’re not like crazy and nuts or anything but I mean they always talked about it and I kind of tried to, no they’re not but now we’re finding out more and more information that everything we do you know, every Google search you make they know about."

Unifying all Republicans is their revulsion toward big government. That revulsion involves three distinct strands of thinking – two of which take the Republican Party into realms of preoccupation that threaten to marginalize the party.

The first strand is big programs, spending, and regulations that undermine business. That is pretty straightforward and is hardly surprising. That is probably the dominant strand among the moderates who long for a fiscally conservative and focused Republican Party. Their first associations with government are: "big"; "waste"; "Regulations. Inefficient"; "Red tape, that’s all." They think big programs go hand-in-hand with special interest groups and lobbyists who buy off politicians and push up spending.  Their objections pointedly do not put increased dependency centerstage.

The moderates are very opposed to Obamacare because it is big spending; it won’t work; it will hurt business and employment. Their first associations are: "Stupidity"; "Job killer"; "And I say debt, D-E-B-T"; "Job killer."

The second strand is a concern with intrusive government that invades their privacy, diminishes their rights and freedoms, and threatens the Constitution. Those worries are dominant among the Tea Party, though not exclusively. In both Tea Party groups, they immediately associate the word government with the phrase "too big." This is followed by "out of con-trol," "wasteful," "corrupt," "Obama," and "Democrats."

And the third is the most important and elicits the most passions among Evangelicals and Tea Party Republicans – that big government is meant to create rights and dependency and electoral support from mostly minorities who will reward the Democratic Party with their votes. The Democratic Party exists to create programs and dependency – the food stamp hammock, entitlements, the 47 percent. And on the horizon—comprehensive immigration reform and Obamacare. Citizenship for 12 million illegals and tens of million getting free health care is the end of the road.

These participants are very conscious of being white and valuing communities that are more likeminded; they freely describe these programs as meant to benefit minorities. This is about a Democratic Party expanding dependency among African Americans and Latinos, with electoral intent. That is why Obama and the Democrats are prevailing nationally and why the future of the Republic is so at risk.

They associate the Democrats with government dependence and talk pointedly about welfare recipients who demand too much and take advantage of the system.
 
"And the entitlement. Everybody seems to feel – And I volunteer at a food pantry…And the thought of entitlement – I didn't get my food stamps, and I need my TANF and I have to get my disability and I have to get my housing."

"Abused…It’s too easy to get on it. People who can work won’t work, because they’re receiving too many government benefits, and it’s easier to stay home and cash in on the unemployment and the food stamps."

"They eat better than I do."

"That’s the whole problem with the whole unemployment and the food stamps: people have taken advantage of it…. Now… It’s a way of living. And that's the problem."

"I work at Sam’s Club…lady comes in all the time. All of them: first, fourth, seventh, ninth. "I’m tired of ribeye steaks. Where’s your lobster tails? Where’s your seafood?" And they’re putting it in an Escalade…It’s disgusting…it’s full of graft. It’s full of fraud. It’s full of abuse."


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