TACO Trump and the many concessions........

The many concessions for Iran in Trump's deal

Story by Brendan Cole

The agreement to end the Iran war has faced criticism for offering Tehran too many concessions while extracting little from the Islamic Republic in return. 

President Donald Trump signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) on Wednesday at the Palace of Versailles in France, saying it would ease the economic turbulence caused by Iran’s blockading of the Strait of Hormuz. 

But critics point to it giving Iran too much and leaving unanswered questions over the purpose of the war, which started on February 28 with joint strikes by American and Israeli forces on Iran. 

The framework to end sanctions linked to Iran’s nuclear program and free up billions in unfrozen funds for Tehran offers “a significant boon for Tehran,” Osamah Khalil, a Middle East expert at Syracuse University, told Newsweek. 

More will be hammered out over the next 60 days, but the deal so far has raised questions over the purpose of the 111-day conflict, which has killed at least 2,211 people, including 14 U.S. troops, and cost the U.S. government an estimated $50 billion.

“Washington seems to have paid in advance for promises that still need to be negotiated, verified and enforced,” Aurélien Colson, the academic co-director of the ESSEC Business School Institute for Geopolitics & Business, told Newsweek on Thursday. “That is always dangerous, but especially so with Iran.”  

What The Deal Does 

Trump said the agreement would immediately reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which Tehran had in essence blockaded for three months, upending global energy markets. But there is a lack of clarity about how it addresses Iran’s control of the critical waterway through which one-fifth of the world’s energy transits. 

Iran has charged a toll for ships to use the waterway, and even if maritime traffic were restored, messaging from Tehran indicates it will not relinquish control. The framework would waive passage charges through the strait for 60 days, but what happens afterward is unclear.  

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)-affiliated Fars News reported that changes to an earlier deal included references to a joint Iranian-Omani administration of the waterway. Iranian officials have signaled that Tehran would keep control over the strait and that vessels transiting it should pay service fees in the future, presenting a scenario worse than before February 28.

The agreement would also see the U.S. terminate all types of sanctions, make available frozen or restricted funds and assets and end the American naval blockade of Iran’s ports, which has hit the Islamic Republic’s critical exports hard. 

This would provide vital funds for the sanctions-hit economy. State news outlet Mehr reported on Tuesday that Tehran would soon gain access to part of its frozen assets, have its oil sanctions suspended, and gain free access to oil revenue. This could see Iran earn up to $10 billion from 60 days of oil sales, with total revenue during this period exceeding $30 billion, according to Mehr. 

Khalil from Syracuse University said Iran “will be able to conduct unhindered trade globally and invite investments into the country,” adding that, “without the shadow of the nuclear program and U.S. regime change efforts, there should also be a significant reduction in regional tensions.”

Meanwhile, the deal would also see the U.S. work with regional partners to develop a plan with at least $300 billion for Iran’s reconstruction and economic development, although there is no commitment for U.S. funds.  

This prospect has been criticized.  

In an op-ed for the Times of Israel, David Horovitz wrote this: “will doubtless utilize to help keep its restive population in line, to massively fund Hezbollah, Hamas and its other terrorist proxies, and to spend as needed on its nuclear and ballistic missile programs.” 

In its assessment on Wednesday, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said Iran will likely use renewed economic access to reconstitute the Axis of Resistance of regional proxies, particularly Hezbollah in Lebanon, during the 60-day negotiation period.  

“Iran has already told Hezbollah that Iran will increase its funding as soon as possible once the United States unfreezes Iranian assets,” the Washington, D.C.-based think tank said.  

Colson said: “From a negotiation perspective, this is not sequencing: it is front-loading concessions. While a proper interim agreement should buy time while preserving pressure, this one appears to buy time by spending most of the pressure upfront.“

What The Deal Doesn’t Do 

Trump entered the war with Iran with maximalist goals like eliminating its nuclear program, destroying its ballistic missile program and ending its support for regional proxies such as Hezbollah and Hamas. While Trump has said that Iran’s nuclear capabilities have been depleted, reaching these aims has not been categorically addressed in the framework deal.

Iran will not be able to procure or develop nuclear weapons under the deal, and both sides would agree to discuss Tehran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium, which Washington says can be made into a nuclear weapon.  

But the fate of what Trump calls “nuclear dust” will rest for the second-phase talks over the next 60 days. 

Tehran has been successful in separating the nuclear question from the 60-day negotiation period,  Manuel Herrera, from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) Monitor project at the security think tank BASIC, told Newsweek.

“This is quite skillful because this gives them leverage and time to address their main priorities regarding the nuclear file,” he said.  

Lebanon 

The deal also affirms Lebanon’s territorial integrity in the face of Israel’s invasion against the Hezbollah group, which entered the war when it fired rockets into northern Israel on March 2 in sympathy with Iran, its main backer.  

But the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) said Thursday it would continue operating in southern Lebanon in the territory it has occupied since the start of the war. Israel has conducted a bombing campaign across Lebanon and invaded a significant part of the country’s south.

More than 3,800 people have been killed in Lebanon, according to the country’s health ministry, while Israeli authorities say 30 soldiers and four civilians have been killed on both sides of the border. Over one million people have been displaced, and the fate of Lebanon is a tricky obstacle to lasting peace.

“The real risk is that this MoU produces a pause rather than a settlement,” said Colson. “Iran gains relief, the U.S. trumpets diplomatic success, Israel contests the Lebanon provisions, but the hard questions are pushed into a 60-day framework that may not be strong enough to carry them.”

Full Text of the 14-Point Draft Agreement 

The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran has jointly agreed in good faith on the following: 

1. The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran and their allies in the current war, by signing this MOU declare the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon, and undertake from now on not to initiate any war or any military operation against each other, and to refrain from the threat or use of force against each other, and ensuring the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Lebanon. The final deal will confirm the permanent termination of the war on all fronts, including in Lebanon and other provisions of this paragraph. 
2. The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran undertake to respect each other’s sovereignty and territorial integrity and to refrain from interfering in each other’s internal affairs. 
3. The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran commit to negotiating and achieving the final deal in maximum 60 days extendable with mutual consent. 
4. Immediately upon the signing of this MOU, the United States of America will begin the removal of its naval blockade and any disturbances or impediments against the Islamic Republic of Iran, and will fully end the naval blockade within 30 days. During this period, the traffic of vessels will be in proportion to the numbers of pre-war traffic being restored by the Islamic Republic of Iran. The United States of America further undertakes to remove its forces from the proximity of the Islamic Republic of Iran within 30 days after the final deal.
5. Upon the signing of this MOU, the Islamic Republic of Iran will make arrangements using its best efforts for the safe passage of commercial vessels with no charge for 60 days only from the Persian Gulf to the Sea of Oman and vice versa. The traffic of commercial vessels will immediately start, and considering the need for removing the technical and military obstacles and demining by the Islamic Republic of Iran will be instated within 30 days. The Islamic Republic of Iran will conduct dialogue with the Sultanate of Oman to define the future administration and maritime services in the Strait of Hormuz in discussion with other Persian Gulf with Oil states in line with the applicable international law and the sovereign rights of coastal states of the Strait of Hormuz.
6. The United States of America undertakes with regional partners to develop a definitive, mutually agreed plan with at least USD $300 billion for the reconstruction and economic development of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The mechanism for the implementation of this plan will be finalized as part of a final deal within 60 days. All required licenses, waivers, and permissions needed for the relevant financial transactions will be granted by the United States of America. 
7. The United States of America undertakes to terminate all types of sanctions against the Islamic Republic of Iran, including the United Nations Security Council resolutions, i.e. 
8. IAEA Board of Governors resolutions, and all unilateral US sanctions, primary and secondary, in an agreed upon schedule as part of the final deal. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States of America acknowledge the critical importance of the sanctions termination issue above mentioned, and expressed their intentions to immediately address these issues in the negotiations in order to achieve mutual agreement on them. 
9. The Islamic Republic of Iran reaffirms that it shall not procure or develop nuclear weapons. The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran have agreed to resolve the disposition of stockpile enriched material pursuant to a mechanism that will be mutually agreed upon in accordance with the schedule mentioned in paragraph seven with the minimum methodology to be down blending on site under the supervision of the IAEA. The two parties also agreed to discuss the issue of enrichment and other mutually agreed matters related to the Islamic Republic of Iran’s nuclear needs, based on a satisfactory framework being agreed upon in the final deal. The final deal will confirm the provisions of this paragraph. The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran acknowledge the critical importance of the nuclear issues above mentioned, and express their intention to immediately address these issues in the negotiations in order to achieve mutual agreement on them. 
10. Pending the final deal, the United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran agree to maintain the status quo. The Islamic Republic of Iran will maintain the current status quo of its nuclear program, and the United States of America will not impose any new sanctions, and will not deploy additional forces in the region. 
11. The United States of America undertakes that immediately upon the signing of this MOU, and until the termination of sanctions, the US Department of Treasury will issue waivers for the export of Iranian crude oil, petroleum products, and derivatives, and all associated services, including banking transactions, insurances, transportation, etc. 
12. The United States of America undertakes to make fully available for use the frozen or restricted funds and assets of the Islamic Republic of Iran upon the implementation of this MOU. The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran will mutually agree on the procedures related to the release of these funds during the negotiations. Such funds, whether retained in the original account or transferred, shall be made fully usable for payment to any ultimate beneficiary designated by the Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The United States of America undertakes to issue all necessary licenses and authorizations accordingly. 
13. The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran agree that an executive mechanism will be established to monitor the successful implementation of this MOU and the future compliance of the final deal. 
14. After signing this MOU and subject to the beginning of the implementation of paragraphs 1,4,5,10, and 11 of this MOU and the continuing implementation of these measures, the United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran will start negotiations regarding the final deal exclusively on the other paragraphs. The final deal will be endorsed by a binding UNSC resolution.