Scale of Trump’s political blunder......

The scale of Trump’s political blunder in Iran is coming into focus

Analysis by Aaron Blake

The first major poll conducted since the Trump administration signed a memorandum of understanding with Iran has a point that seems like good news for Trump: Americans overwhelmingly agree he should end the war rather than push for more concessions.

But it’s not because they actually like the agreement; it’s because they think the war is a debacle, and they just want to be done with it.

A new CBS News-YouGov poll shows that even as Americans get their first glimpse — however tentative — of the finish line, it hasn’t improved their views of the war one iota.

And as the administration enters a new phase in this process, it’s worth a check-in on where the politics stand and how they could impact what comes next.

Americans think it’s a bad deal

The poll shows 78% of Americans said they’d prefer to end the war now, while just 22% wanted to hold out — to “continue … until Iran gives up more.”

At least one Trump political adviser was celebrating that finding on Sunday. He suggested it showed the American people were on Trump and Vice President JD Vance’s side on the accord with Iran.

But the rest of the poll makes it abundantly clear that’s not true.

When asked to actually review the agreement, just 22% of Americans said it’s better for the United States than Iran, while significantly more — 37% — said it’s better for Iran. (The other 41% said it was about equal.)

The percentage who said it’s better for the US included just 39% of Republicans. So just to underscore, only about 4 in 10 members of Trump’s own party think his administration negotiated a win here.

Americans also said 45%-29% that the war hasn’t been successful from a strategic standpoint.

They’re accepting a strategic loss

But that last finding might undersell how much of a strategic defeat Americans see this as.

Perhaps nothing drives that home like polling on the nuclear issue — Trump’s most critical goal.

While Trump has repeatedly asserted his aim was to permanently stop Iran’s nuclear program, the CBS poll shows 69% of Americans and even 45% of Republicans said this agreement, if finalized to bring the war to a conclusion, won’t accomplish that.

This echoes a Fox News poll conducted the weekend the framework was being negotiated in mid-June. It showed registered voters said 64%-35% that it was unlikely a peace agreement would stop Iran from producing nuclear weapons.

Notably, the agreement leaves many details for later, so there are still plenty of issues to iron out on the nuclear front.

But the Trump administration appears to be walking back some of its goals, and these findings get at the rank pessimism that exists in the American public.

The new CBS poll also shows:

• 68% said the agreement, if finalized, won’t have stopped Iran from threatening other countries. Nearly half (48%) of polled Republicans agreed with that statement.
• 79% said it hasn’t made Iran’s leaders more pro-US.
• 74% said it hasn’t made Iran’s people safe and free, which Trump had said was one of his goals earlier this year.

They think the war was counterproductive

A striking and consistent detail in polling on the Iran war are findings that suggest the war is not only viewed as a failure, but as counterproductive.

And that continues today.

Trump claims the war has destroyed Iran militarily and pulverized its nuclear program. But just 37% of Americans say Iran is weaker today than before the war began.

More than 6 in 10 say Iran is as strong as it was before (38%) or stronger (25%).

While Iran has surely suffered major military losses, it has also demonstrated significant leverage via its now-proven ability to lock down the Strait of Hormuz and jeopardize the world economy.

Speaking of which, Americans think the war is likely to continue exacting a toll in the months and years to come.

A clear 57% majority said the war has actually “created more problems than it solved.” That’s nearly three times the 21% who said it had solved more problems than it created.

They think Trump was caught off-guard

And when it comes to that impact, Americans seem to think Trump simply didn’t understand what he was getting himself into.

The poll asked whether people thought the Trump administration understood the impact the war would have on the world economy.

Fully 64% thought the war impacted the world economy more than the administration expected. That includes 51% of polled Republicans.

Of course, there’s plenty to back that up — both from Trump’s own public comments as well as reporting. CNN reported in March that the administration underestimated Iran’s willingness to try and close the Strait of Hormuz.

Americans are just anxious for it to be over — and think Trump is, too

The last big lesson is that Americans are on the same page with Trump in a way: They just want it to be over, and they think Trump does, too.

The Fox News poll in mid-June had shown 70% of registered voters said they were concerned the war would become a long-term commitment. And 87% said it was important to avoid a prolonged war.

That likely helps explain why people might be willing to accept a suboptimal agreement. The administration said the war was likely to last about four to six weeks, and it’s now dragged on for nearly four months.

Americans haven’t seen many deliverables during that time. And given they didn’t see much reason to go to war in the first place, it’s not a big logical leap that they would decide to cut bait.

And perhaps most tellingly, that’s what they think Trump is doing right now — trying to cut bait.

The CBS poll asked whether Americans thought the Trump administration was reaching this agreement because it had met all of its goals, or because it “wants the conflict to be over.”

Two-thirds of Americans said it was because the administration just wants to wrap it up.