Billions in arms deals

NATO allies to pledge billions in arms deals, Ukraine aid at Ankara summit 

They are also considering references to the U.S. war in Iran as part of the draft summit declaration, NATO diplomats told POLITICO.

By Laura Kayali and Victor Jack

NATO allies are expected to pledge billions of dollars in new arms contracts and more weapons production at the alliance’s summit in Ankara next month, five NATO diplomats told POLITICO. 

Despite U.S. President Donald Trump repeatedly browbeating NATO since returning to office last year, allies are also expected to reaffirm their commitment to the alliance’s Article 5 mutual defense clause in the joint declaration, they said — and to again describe Russia as a long-term threat.

NATO leaders, including Trump, will gather in the Turkish capital on July 7-8, amid U.S. criticism that European allies have not backed Washington in the war on Iran. Like last year, the joint statement will be short, said the diplomats who detailed the contents of the draft statement to POLITICO. They were all granted anonymity to speak freely on the sensitive matter.

NATO ambassadors are currently negotiating the details of the leaders’ declaration, which is subject to change until the last minute. Country heads of state and government will then sign off on the statement in Ankara. The exact amount for arms contracts hasn’t been settled yet, and at least some of the procurement deals are likely to be pre-agreed and repackaged. 

The alliance’s Secretary-General Mark Rutte wants to focus the summit primarily on ramping up defense industrial production, in part because he seeks a unifying topic that can help paper over NATO’s internal rifts.

The focus on scaling up alliance-wide production reflects the challenge of getting European industry to move away from high-value arms and toward rapid mass production. But promising new defense deals that benefit the U.S. will also allow Rutte to make an economic case for NATO that resonates with Trump.

Last week Rutte said that overall, European allies and Canada pumped $139 billion more into their defense last year than in 2024, after allies agreed to spend 3.5 percent of their GDP on defense by 2035.

In the draft statement, NATO allies also vow to bolster Ukraine with €70 billion in military support and promise a sum that is at least equivalent for next year, said the diplomats. POLITICO first reported the financing target, which the U.S. is not expected to participate in.

One of the diplomats cited above said support for Ukraine would likely be the most contentious point. But overall, talks on the draft declaration are “going smoothly,” said a sixth senior NATO diplomat.

Transatlantic tussle

Europe's effort take on more responsibility for the continent's deterrence and defense as the U.S. pivots to other priorities — dubbed burden-shifting — is also set to take center stage in the declaration.

Last week, U.S. defense chief Pete Hegseth announced a six-month review of the American military presence in Europe in a bid to pressure countries to spend more on defense. The assessment came just weeks after Washington told its allies it would immediately be allocating less battlefield kit, such as aircraft, submarines and drones, to the pool of capabilities NATO can draw on in times of war.

In the draft statement, European allies pledge greater involvement in the continent’s defenses, specifically citing investment in deep strike capabilities, air defense systems and drones, said the diplomats.

Deep-strike capabilities — long-range missiles able to hit the enemy behind the front line — have become contentious between the U.S. and Europe. While the Europeans are keen to develop these capabilities in order to deter Russia, Washington is reluctant to let them operate such weapons. The Pentagon recently refused to send Tomahawk missiles to Germany, arguing Moscow could perceive the move as escalation. 

NATO allies also seek to ease another key source of tension between Europe and Washington: the war in Iran. Although the U.S. has signed a preliminary agreement to end the conflict, European officials fear lingering issues, like reopening the Strait of Hormuz, could become a focal point of Ankara gathering.  

In a move that will likely be seen as an olive branch to Trump despite a strong internal split over the war, in the draft statement the allies call on Iran to uphold freedom of navigation in the critical trade artery, the NATO diplomats said. The text also notes that Iran should never acquire a nuclear weapon, they added.