Why Europe doesn’t trust Trump’s latest Ukraine reversal
US allies in Europe are worried that American support for Ukraine is fickle, and that the Trump administration will cut its troop posture on the continent.
By Paul McLeary
Ukraine’s allies in Europe are finally hearing the tough-on-Russia message they’d been hoping for from President Donald Trump. But they don’t trust it.
Across European capitals, there’s a feeling of whiplash over the administration’s recent Ukraine policy reversals and confusion about who is calling the shots at the Pentagon. As a result, governments are preparing for multiple scenarios — making it difficult to design any Ukraine strategy while Trump’s foreign policy appears to change at a whim. Trump may, for example, take more actions against Russia, or once again halt the flow of weapons to Ukraine or even pull out U.S. troops that undergird Europe’s defenses.
“Nothing surprises anymore; we have to be ready for anything,” said one diplomat from a NATO nation. The individual, like others interviewed for this story, was granted anonymity to discuss ongoing internal deliberations.
Many foreign allies were blindsided last week when the Pentagon ordered a surprise stop to air defenses and lethal military aid to Kyiv. Then this week, Trump made an abrupt U-turn and pledged more air defenses to the embattled Ukrainian forces while saying he was sick of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s “bullshit.” But it’s unclear whether that will translate into action.
One reason for the confusion is a lack of communication from Washington.
The Ukrainians have been trying to get Defense Minister Rustem Umerov in touch with Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth since July 1, when the shipment of air defense missiles and precision weapons ready to be shipped to Ukraine was halted without warning. But two people familiar with the effort said Hegseth’s staff has yet to agree to a call.
It is “hard to know what’s happening” inside the administration, a European official said, especially given that “Trump has started to sound more consistent in his support for Ukraine,” while his Pentagon leadership has taken a different view.
The continent is also worried about more than just the immediate issue of weapons to Ukraine. A major review of American force posture in Europe is looming large for many NATO allies. If the U.S. were to substantially reduce its troop presence in Europe, it would make it harder to counter Russian aggression in the long term or fend off future threats.
A second European official said “the broad impression in Europe is that the administration has been pretty uncoordinated” on Ukraine, and many in NATO capitals are simply trying to keep up with the changing moods in Washington.
The White House argues that the administration has not changed strategies or policies.
“There is nothing more consistent than President Trump’s foreign policy. He will always put America First, and he wants peace in Ukraine and around the world,” White House spokesperson Anna Kelly said in a statement. “After a DOD review to ensure all foreign military aid aligns with American interests, the president decided to send Ukraine additional defensive munitions to help stop the killing in this brutal war.”
The Pentagon did not respond to a request for comment.
Defense Department policy chief Elbridge Colby is leading the review of the Pentagon’s global force posture and has said he expects to release its recommendations in August. Given his views on moving American focus away from Europe toward the Indo-Pacific, European allies expect to lose some U.S. forces.
None of the officials asked about the issue could point to any discussions with Colby’s team about the review, leaving countries like Germany, Poland, Italy and the U.K. — all with significant American troops and hardware stationed on their soil — in the dark about the future.
On Tuesday, Trump hinted at some frustration with Germany and South Korea in particular on how expensive it is to house American troops there.
“We have 45,000 soldiers in South Korea. We have 45,000 soldiers in Germany, 52,000 actually. And you know, that’s a huge economic development for them. That’s tremendous money for them and it’s a tremendous loss for us,” he said before a Cabinet meeting.
While the study being conducted by the Pentagon is something that every administration has undertaken, Colby’s central role in canceling Ukraine’s military aid and his long history of skepticism of U.S. presence in Europe has raised concerns in Europe.
The Senate Foreign Relations Committee’s top Democrat, Sen. Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire, said she was proposing legislation for the annual defense policy bill to put guardrails around potential troop drawdowns.
Some allies say they feel Hegseth isn’t a dependable interlocutor on Ukraine strategy or broader issues like the U.S. presence in Europe. It’s unclear to many how involved he is in making policy decisions and whether he’s deferring to Colby or others with more experience in government.
“There’s a lot of unpredictability in terms of the administration’s policies,” the first European official observed. “It’s a lot of chaos, and honestly a lack of proper management from the top.”
The few times Hegseth has spoken off-the-cuff to allies haven’t always gone well, starting with his first trip to Europe in February, where he angered the White House by laying down preconditions for Ukraine to negotiate a ceasefire with Russia while addressing NATO defense ministers. He spent the rest of his European trip defending his remarks.
Hegseth has seen some of his public appearances curtailed over the past few months. His solo trips to the Middle East and Europe were canceled by the White House, which preferred him to travel with the president and have little, if any, interaction with allies.
The nervousness and frustration in Europe stand in contrast to the brief flush of optimism after the June NATO summit, at which Trump threw his support behind increased NATO defense spending and the re-arming of the alliance. The president’s positive meetings with fellow heads of state and his shelving of usual criticisms of alliance members were precisely the thaw that many nations had hoped.
Now, those looking to arm Ukraine are just watching to see if the promised weapons actually arrive.
“It was confusing to hear [Trump] sound very sympathetic to Ukraine [at the NATO summit] and then hear that the Pentagon is stopping weapons … we hope that gets restarted soon,” the first European official said.
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