Are you even surprised?????

Trump’s EU arms sales boast doesn’t add up

The bloc already buys almost two-thirds of its weapons from the U.S. — there’s little chance the new trade deal will shift that by much.

By Chris Lunday and Laura Kayali

The European Union let Donald Trump claim a political win on defense — but it’s unlikely the trade deal will boost U.S. weapons purchases by EU countries more than originally planned. 

After the U.S. president emerged from Sunday's transatlantic trade talks boasting that the EU would buy “vast amounts" of American weapons worth "hundreds of billions,” European officials quietly clarified nothing concrete on arms had been agreed. 

“Arms procurement is not a matter for the Commission,” one senior EU official told reporters on Monday. “This was more an expression of expectation on the part of President Trump that the increased defense expenditure would benefit U.S. defense companies … But it was not calculated in any way into the figures we talked about.”

The agreement was sealed Sunday evening at Trump’s Turnberry golf resort in Scotland, where he met European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen to finalize the deal, ending intense months of tariff negotiations between Brussels and Washington.

American arms

There’s no doubt Europe remains heavily reliant on U.S. weapons, with countries buying everything from advanced Lockheed Martin F-35 jets to Patriot air defense systems, Black Hawk helicopters and Abrams tanks. Last year's report on EU competitiveness by former European Central Bank chief Mario Draghi found that 78 percent of the €75 billion EU countries spent on defense between June 2022 and June 2023 went outside the bloc, with 63 percent going to the U.S.

Although EU leaders and industry are pushing to boost homegrown defense capabilities — a shift partly driven by doubts over Trump’s commitment to NATO and long-term U.S. support for European security — there is little prospect of European militaries ending their dependence on U.S. weapons anytime soon.

And Trump's headline-grabbing rhetoric did stir unease among Europe’s arms-makers. Industry officials warn that those vague pledges risk undermining efforts to strengthen the continent’s own defense sector.

Brussels-based aerospace and defense industry association ASD stressed that defense procurement “remains a member state prerogative,” and procurement decisions should be evaluated based on their long-term consequences to avoid critical dependencies and safeguard Europe’s security. 

“Only by investing in its own defense industry can Europe guarantee its security and strengthen its freedom of action over the long term,” ASD spokesperson Adrian Schmitz said. 

The same tune came from EU countries such as Germany.

“Especially in a tense geopolitical environment, we must secure our own technological and production capabilities in Europe, particularly in military aviation,” Marie-Christine von Hahn, managing director of the German aerospace and defense association BDLI, said in a statement on Monday. 

BDLI representatives were among a group of industry lobbyists who met with German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius last week to raise concerns that any effort to ease transatlantic trade tensions could come at the cost of ramping up purchases of American weapons, three people familiar with the talks told POLITICO. 

No real commitment

In reality, however, no specific figure was attached to potential U.S. weapons purchases in the U.S.-EU trade deal. And while the EU pledged to buy $750 billion worth of American energy and invest an additional $600 billion in the U.S. economy, the Commission has already conceded it has no control over those investments, which would come entirely from the private sector. 

Brussels, which negotiated the deal on behalf of EU capitals, also lacks any legal competence in military procurement and therefore has no binding way of actually making governments rethink their armament programs.

Aside from that, some EU programs — including the loans-for-weapons SAFE scheme — also have meaningful Buy European clauses enshrined in law that limit the use of EU cash for American weaponry.

The new NATO spending target, agreed in The Hague last month, of 5 percent of GDP on defense, including 3.5 percent on purely military items, was already expected to benefit U.S. industry — something unrelated to the trade deal. In letting Trump claim otherwise, the EU is giving him a rhetorical win. 

“On the back of the NATO summit in The Hague, there is, of course, an understanding that our member states, with the Commission’s very active support, [are] increasing defense spending, and therefore that will directly or indirectly benefit the United States,” the EU official said.

According to analysts, the U.S.-EU trade deal is unlikely to meaningfully change European capitals’ procurement decisions or deflect their push to boost local industries. 

“Germany’s defense modernization plan includes buying some F-35s and Patriot systems, but it will rely on German firms for armor and naval vessels,” wrote Byron Callan from Capital Alpha Partners in a note. Sweden isn’t going to cancel orders for home-made Gripen fighter jets and Poland is already diversifying with purchases from South Korea, he added. 

“We expect that there will continue to be support within the EU to develop European defense capabilities,” the note continues. “An open question remains how much incremental demand could there be for U.S. equipment above and beyond what it is now known.”