Takeaways...

6 political takeaways from Biden's decision to step aside

Domenico Montanaro

Maybe it was the Lord Almighty, after all.

Or just Nancy Pelosi.

Whatever the case may be, President Biden on Sunday made the historic announcement that he’s no longer running for reelection. And he endorsed his vice president, Kamala Harris, instead.

Here are six takeaways about what to make of it all:

1. Biden did this because of the polls that led to Democratic and donor pressure

Nothing like this has happened since Lyndon B. Johnson decided against running for reelection in 1968. Even then, LBJ made the announcement in March, not July. Like Biden, LBJ did so because the writing was on the wall. He had health concerns, and he was unpopular because of the Vietnam War.

All politicians want to be the top dog, but the numbers can move things — whether it’s polls or money. And both combined to exert a huge amount of pressure on Biden to reconsider. Money had started to dry up, and he was slipping in swing states after his disastrous June 27 debate.

Biden indicated in an ABC interview that only the “Lord Almighty," polls showing his party losing or maybe some combination of former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, Democratic Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, current House Democratic Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and Rep. Jim Clyburn of South Carolina could get him to step aside.

Pelosi, one of the most savvy political operators in the Democratic Party, appeared to lead the charge. She pays very close attention to the polls and she listens to the swing-state Democrats who had seen a cratering in the numbers in their states and districts. Eventually, Biden got past denial to acceptance.

2. Democrats now have a much-needed pep in their step —and dollars in the bank

This has been among the worst three-and-a-half weeks of any presidential campaign — from the debate to former President Donald Trump’s convention to Biden contracting COVID-19.

But with this announcement, Democrats are smiling and seem energized for the first time since before the debate. It doesn’t mean they’ll win the race, but this has injected them with much-needed enthusiasm — and money. In the hours after Biden’s withdrawal, Democrats donated $46.7 million through ActBlue as of 9 p.m. ET, the largest site that processes Democratic donations. It’s the biggest single day of Democratic donations since the 2020 election.

The campaign has now been reset, and it’s clear Republicans, to this point, don’t quite have the message solidified on how they’re going to run against Harris.

3. This changes the narrative of the race

The Trump campaign, conservative media and Republicans on Capitol Hill have been campaigning against Biden — and the Biden family — for years now.

They’ve charged that Biden was too old, might not know where he is, wasn’t qualified to run the country and he and his son are likely corrupt and have enriched themselves.

Throw that tattered playbook out the window.

If it is indeed Harris who becomes the Democratic Party’s nominee, Republicans will be running against a much younger candidate (Harris is 59), a former prosecutor — who is sure to draw on that experience to contrast herself with the convicted felon — and potentially the first woman to be president, first Black female president and first Asian American president.

That presents all kinds of risks for how Republicans talk about Harris; a Black woman running against two white men brings a different dynamic than another older white man.

It’s not often that Democrats get to troll Republicans, but soon after Biden’s announcement, many were trying to flip the script, saying the country can’t have a president who would be 83 at the end of his term.

Hunter who?

4. Harris is likely going to be the Democratic nominee, but she has a lot to prove

For someone to challenge Harris at the convention they will need the signatures of at least 300 delegates to get on a ballot. For context, Biden has some 3,900 delegates. It’s certainly possible someone challenges Harris, but who?

Many of the big names that have been mentioned as a Biden replacement have come out and endorsed Harris — Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, California Gov. Gavin Newsom, Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and others.

So the stars appear to be aligning for Harris, but she still has work to do.

First, throw out the polls. We are all starting from scratch. Before Sunday, polls had shown Harris polling about the same as Biden. The latest national NPR/PBS News/Marist poll, for example, had Biden up 50% to 48% over Trump, within the margin of error. Harris was also statistically tied, 50% to 49% over Trump.

But that’s when people were thinking of her as a hypothetical candidate. Now that Harris is likely to be the actual nominee, Harris is going to face a whole new level of scrutiny.

She has tremendous strengths and weaknesses. Harris is younger than Biden and can (likely) prosecute the case better than he can, though she is going to have to prove that in the court of public opinion. Harris has the potential to fire up key portions of the Democratic base — Black voters and younger voters, two groups with whom Biden was struggling. She’s also seemed to find her voice during this campaign when talking about abortion rights, in particular.

But on the flip side, she was not a very good candidate in 2019 when she ran for the Democratic nomination. She struggled to convey her core values, instead saying she saw herself as a problem solver. She has been caricatured by the right as a California liberal, while also facing criticism from the left as being too tough on crime as the state’s attorney general. She’s struggled with messaging at times as vice president, including on immigration, one of the areas Biden put her in charge of early on.

People close to Harris contend that she’s improved since those early days.

“Kamala Harris will be the next president of the United States,” said Jamal Simmons, who was Harris’ communications director in the second year of the administration. “She’s a better candidate than she was, with a great position on the most important issue to the Democratic coalition and a majority of Americans who are anti-MAGA.”

This is going to be a hyper-compressed and closely watched campaign. It will be crucial how Harris deals with the spotlight, not just because of the shortened amount of time, but also because she has to prove she’s a better messenger than Biden and reassure Democrats they’re making the right choice before next month’s Democratic National Convention in Chicago.

5. Democrats could gain geographic or ideological balance with the VP pick

Looking ahead to Harris’ potential vice-presidential pick, if she indeed is the nominee, she has a plethora of choices.

And she has the opportunity to rejigger the electoral map. There are risks and rewards with each of these candidates, but some of the names floated include lots of white, male moderates like Pennsylvania’s Shapiro, North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper, Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear and Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly, as well as Whitmer, a swing-state governor.

Shapiro, 51, is a popular pick in Democratic circles because he’s generally well-liked, has handled thorny issues competently and is from Pennsylvania. Pennsylvania has seen more ad money than any state this election. The Trump campaign knows it has to take one of the blocks out of the Blue Wall — Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. They’ve targeted Pennsylvania more than any other swing state, and, as of Sunday morning, were holding onto a narrow lead there in an average of the polls.

Cooper is also from a swing state, but one that is a little bit more of a reach for Democrats. Plus, he’s 67 years old.

Beshear, 46, is a popular Democrat. He’s won praise from both sides of the aisle for how he’s worked with both parties, but he’s in a Republican presidential state.

Kelly, 60, is also from a swing state. He’s an astronaut married to former Rep. Gabby Giffords, who was shot in 2011 at a constituent event; he’s shown he can raise a lot of money for Democrats, and he could help, to a degree, blunt Republicans’ immigration attacks since he is from a border state and has separated himself some from Biden on border policy. He isn’t from a swing state with as many delegates as Pennsylvania or North Carolina, though.

Whitmer would help with Michigan, but there has never been two women on a major party presidential ticket.

6. This decision will be a capstone on Biden’s legacy

Biden has been in public life since 1972, when he won election to the U.S. Senate as a 29-year-old. He wasn’t even old enough to serve in the Senate at the time. He turned 30 two weeks after his election.

This is all Biden has ever known. He won seven terms to the Senate from Delaware, and then was vice president. He ran for the presidency twice before winning. He dropped out in disgrace in 1987 after a plagiarism scandal and did not get many votes in his 2008 campaign before being plucked by Barack Obama to be his running mate.

He has always wanted to be president and has been told by plenty of people in his life that he couldn’t do a lot of things. In 2020, he defeated Trump, and Democrats credit him with saving democracy. But now, reality set in that the path forward was narrowing, or potentially nonexistent.

Many Democrats are calling Biden’s concession patriotic and selfless, in part an attempt to draw a contrast with Trump. This would be a hard decision for any president, especially for someone who has been around as long as Biden has.

“As a historical matter, very, very few people do this,” historian Jon Meacham, who has helped in writing speeches for Biden, including his 2023 State of the Union address, told NBC News on Sunday, “and in an era where so many of us privilege power over principle, where a lot of us would rather take than give, I think it’s a moment for the country to consider that the president has given us a lesson: that our own wishes, our own immediate desires, should not always be controlling.”