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The Renewable Energy Revolution Is Unstoppable

Yes, even under Donald Trump.

Eric Holthaus

There’s no question that the forthcoming return of Donald Trump and his willful disregard for science, truth, and basic empathy is a massive step backward in the struggle toward a world built on justice, equity, and a stable climate. Trump has promised to re-exit the Paris Climate Accord, all but ending any realistic hope of a truly global climate effort before the world reaches the 1.5 C threshold.

Here at home, Trump’s plans for the environment range from heavy-handed (massively downsizing the Federal Emergency Management Agency, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and NASA) to selfish (creating tax breaks for oil companies in exchange for campaign contributions) to downright bizarre (abolishing regulations for low-flow showerheads). As veteran climate champion Bill McKibben said in a statement on Wednesday, the consequences of this election will likely be measured in geological time.

And yet: I think it’s important to say that all the collective work pushing for a greener world for the past 50 years has also measurably altered the trajectory of our civilization away from a worst-case climate scenario and toward a more verdant world. Along the way, there have been many other huge steps backward—some that came well before the first national park was established, or the first Earth Day was celebrated. Like I told my kids the morning after the election, when you’re going on a long walk in the woods, sometimes you get lost.

While Trump was elected on a “burn it all to the ground” platform, he will not be able to undo everything we’ve gained on climate. A particular bright spot is the global surge in renewable energy: I don’t think it is at risk of slowing anytime soon—no matter what Trump does.

Trump may gut environmental regulations, but even without them wind and solar are now the cheapest source of new energy in the world, period. Even in China and India, wind and solar are now much cheaper than coal. China alone is on pace to add twice as much wind and solar this year as the rest of the world combined.

Wind and solar now make up 15 percent of the world’s energy mix, up from just 1 percent only 10 years ago. They are now consistently eating away at the share held by fossil fuels—a trend that will continue all the way to net zero. Basically: We did it. We’ve secured a clean energy future for ourselves. The only question remaining is how fast this future will become reality.

With years of major wind and solar projects in the pipeline and with renewable-friendly policies designed to last, these facts will continue to be even more true in the future, even if Trump tries to undo Biden’s signature climate laws. Clean energy tax credits are in place until 2030; they will stick. The vast majority will continue going to Republican districts, which will help protect them into the future.

I recently spent six months selling solar door-to-door, partly to learn more about the industry, partly out of desperation as an underemployed writer. Here’s what I saw: On the fast-growing outskirts of Minneapolis, most new-build neighborhoods had energy-efficient features that were designed to reduce energy costs and keep families safe and comfortable during the long Minnesota winters. These brand-new developments were flooded with folks working from home, wanting to live near nature, and just trying to make ends meet.

The conversations I had were fascinating. There were plenty of libertarians aspiring to live off the grid, but also many recent immigrants living in multigenerational homes, and newlyweds just starting out and wanting to focus on their work and their family.

And they all wanted solar.

In my training, there was no mention of climate at all. Solar is now all about saving money. People buy rooftop solar because it’s cheaper, period.

The even better news is that utility-scale solar and wind farms are even cheaper to operate than rooftop systems. Scale that fact up from neighborhoods to cities, corporations, and the military, and you can quickly get why, in the words of Kamala Harris, we are not going back.

That’s a good thing for climate: The renewable energy boom has become something much more than just a way to reduce carbon emissions. It has become a pathway to prosperity. Now that renewable energy is the world’s cheapest energy source, it transforms the politics around a key piece of climate action. Wind and solar are not just for fringe environmentalists. They’re for everyone. The renewable revolution is inevitable.

Now, the focus for activists will be on making sure this happens as quickly as possible. There’s no time to waste in speeding the transition to a zero-carbon global economy. This year is now virtually certain to end up as the hottest year in human history yet again, and what’s more, there’s fresh evidence that long-feared climate tipping points are finally arriving. New data show that not only did global forests absorb very little carbon last year, but also wetlands are now emitting methane—a greenhouse gas dozens of times more powerful than carbon dioxide.

There will be plenty of opportunities to mourn environmental losses under Trump, but climate warriors should be unquestionably praised for the fruits of their years of efforts. Because literally every solar panel and wind turbine matters more now than ever before.