Lukashenko in Belarus

Who can replace Lukashenko in Belarus?

Winning the fight for free elections would just be the beginning.

By MARYIA SADOUSKAYA KOMLACH

Protests in Belarus have sparked feverish debates about a potential transition of power in Minsk. But the question of who would replace the country’s decades-long ruler Alexander Lukashenko and garner support from a majority of Belarusians is far from clear.

After decades of autocratic rule with little to no public political space, Belarus does not yet have an organized pro-democracy political force. That makes it hard to predict who might emerge as a potential leader.

After all, the three most popular opposition figures in the run-up to the August 9 presidential election — Viktor Babariko, Valery Tsepkalo and Sergei Tikhanovsky, later represented by his wife Svetlana — were not considered likely contenders a year ago.

Were Lukashenko to step down or agree to free and fair elections, it would open the door for dozens of other potential candidates.

What's clear, however, is that there are a series of political molds into which any new Belarusian leader would be likely to fit. Here is a breakdown of potential profiles.

The Russophile

The pro-Russian candidate will accuse Lukashenko’s government of trying to turn its back on Moscow even as it enjoyed enormous financial and political support from the Kremlin. They will remind voters that the government in 2005 promised to introduce a common currency with Russia but never delivered, despite continuing to benefit from Russia’s markets and financial subsidies.

They will take aim at pro-Belarusian candidates, labeling nationalists as “Nazis,” and argue that Belarusian should no longer be considered a state language, given that a majority of the population speaks Russian on a daily basis. They will advocate for deeper ties and more immediate cooperation with Moscow and will portray themselves as credible partners for the Kremlin.

The most likely candidates: Oleg Gaidukevich, an acting MP representing the Liberal Democratic Party of Belarus. Although he joined Lukashenko’s reelection campaign, Gaidukevich was critical of authorities’ violent treatment of protesters and opposition members in the election aftermath. He also announced the creation of the People’s Patriotic Movement of Belarus, a party whose main goal is to preserve ties with Russia, and the Collective Security Treaty Organization, a military alliance of post-Soviet states.

Another potential candidate is Elvira Mirsalimova, the deputy chairwoman of the movement Civil Accord, which runs the pro-Kremlin media outlet Politring. She has criticized the Belarusian authorities for failing to strengthen relations with Russia, repeatedly asserted that Belarusians are Russians and called Josef Stalin a “prominent political leader.”

Other candidates: Viktor Babariko is a bank manager with pro-Russian views who intended to run in the presidential election but was barred from entering despite collecting more than 300,000 signatures. Valery Tsepkalo, the presidential hopeful who escaped to Europe via Moscow, is also an option. He penned an open letter to the Russian president asking him to stop supporting Lukashenko (and also appealed to Western leaders to support the protests).

Who would support them? Support for this candidate will likely depend on how close a relationship with Russia they say they want.

According to independent pollster Belarusian Analytical Workroom, pro-Russian attitudes in Belarus have slumped to a 20-year low: Less than 50 percent support further integration with Russian, the December 2019 poll found, and only 3.7 percent of Belarusians support the idea of becoming a subject of the Russian Federation.

Still, the number of those who would want a hard border with Russia is also negligible, at 6.8 percent. Overall, some 42 percent think it is better for Belarus to maintain its union with Russia than to join the European Union, and 76 percent believe the two countries should maintain friendly relations.

The Europhile

Any campaign to replace Lukashenko is likely to include at least one aspiring pro-European leader who will try to appeal to Belarusians’ European identity and play up the country’s proximity to the EU.

Belarus shares a border with three EU countries and is a member of the Eastern Partnership, a joint initiative involving the EU and six Eastern European countries — something that a pro-European candidate will argue gives Minsk the chance to rid itself of its dependency on Russia and seek closer integration with the EU.

The candidate will pledge to seek similar benefits as Ukraine or Georgia: an association agreement, trade benefits, or a visa-free regime for citizens, for example. And as the EU is not keen to open up accession talks for potential new members from Eastern Europe, the Europhile candidate will be able to argue that strengthening ties with the EU doesn’t have to mean pushing Russia away completely.

The most likely candidates: The Europhile is likely to be part of the traditional opposition and to have ties to the European institutions, including the European Parliament’s most powerful groups and factions. Several politicians could be contenders: Andréi Sánnikov, an exiled ex-deputy foreign minister and ex-presidential candidate who is leader of the European Belarus initiative; Alexander Milinkevich, another ex-presidential candidate and leader of the movement For Freedom; and Anatol Lyabedzka, former head of United Civil Party. Another possible contender is Volha Kavalkova, a political figure of the new generation who is serving 10 days in prison for her role in organizing protests and is well connected in Brussels and other European capitals.

Other candidates: Pavel Latushko, a former culture minister and the former ambassador to Poland and France. He openly came out against Lukashenko following the August election and has become a prominent figure in the protests as well as a member of the presidium of the opposition’s Coordination Council.

Who would support them? According to the BAW study, some 32 percent of Belarusians believe their lives would be improved if Belarus struck a partnership with the EU rather than stay in its union with Russia. This base has the potential to grow significantly, a poll commissioned last year by the EU Neighbours East project found: Some 89 percent of Belarusians have either a positive or a neutral image of the EU and 51 percent of people in Belarus trust the EU.

If the Europhile candidate can keep friendly or neutral relations with Russia while seeking more cooperation with the EU, they may even garner support from Russophiles — especially if the EU actively supports the position that Belarus, for now, does not need to choose between Russia and the EU.

The Nationalist

Under other circumstances, this candidate would be called a “patriot.” But after decades of Russian-language dominance in education, business and government, anyone advocating for Belarusian identity and language is likely to be portrayed as an extremist (or in the language of some pro-Kremlin figures, a “Nazi”).

This candidate will seek to represent Belarusian speakers who felt excluded and discriminated against by the previous government. Their values could range from conservatism to neo-liberalism, but their main focus will be on restoring the status of the Belarusian language and scrapping the official recognition of Russian, which became the second state language in a 1995 referendum.

The most likely candidates: Exiled politician Zianon Pazniak could be a leading contender (if laws are changed to allow those who have lived outside the country for more than 10 years to run for president). Vehemently anti-Russia, Pazniak sees the hand of the Kremlin in most of the current opposition movements and figureheads.

Another potential candidate is Pavel Seviarynets, a charismatic and well-known Christian democrat who has played an active role in pro-Belarusian movements since the mid-1990s and ran in the 2010 presidential election. Arrested before election day this August, he now faces up to 15 years in prison on charges of rioting and has already served more than 75 days for participating in unsanctioned public gatherings.

Other candidates: Former MP and deputy chairwoman of the Society of the Belarusian Language Alena Anisim is a vocal advocate for the issue and has openly challenged Lukashenko’s position on it.

Who would support them? Support for these candidates will likely come from an educated minority of Belarusian-speakers across the country. Activists have already been successful in pushing for Belarusian-language education for their children and expanding the official use of Belarusian.

(Some 60 percent of Belarusians consider Belarusian to be their mother tongue, according to state-run ONT TV. Official surveys put the figure closer to 47 percent, with the same number considering both Russian and Belarusian their mother tongue.)

If the nationalist candidate is too conservative on minority rights — for example arguing gay people should be excluded from pro-democratic movements and calling homosexuality a disease, as Seviarynets has done — some of their potential supporters could choose the Europhile candidate instead. Or, what's perhaps more likely, they could ramp up pressure on all candidates to commit to supporting the revival of the Belarusian language instead.

The ‘democratic’ Lukashenko

Given how long Lukashenko was in power, it’ll come as no surprise to see at least one candidate who will seek to maintain some of the more popular pillars of the Lukashenko regime, such as its pensions and social security schemes, its heavy hand in the economy and its support for the official status of the Russian language.

They will promise a more relaxed grip in other areas, for example allowing a greater level of free speech and political participation. They will also be advocates of a very gradual economic reform but will keep up the Lukashenko strategy of playing the EU and Russia off each other when it comes to foreign policy.

The most likely candidates: Current or recent government officials, such as ex-Prime Minister Sergey Rumas or current Foreign Minister Vladimir Makey. Both have been named as possible contenders before but, unsurprisingly, denied all rumors about their political ambitions.

Other candidates: It is an unlikely scenario, but Lukashenko could bow to pressure to become a more moderate ruler in order to stay in office.

Who will support them? Many Belarusians are worried about their economic prospects and could be swayed to vote for an establishment figure if they pledge to keep the country’s economy on track and protect people’s livelihoods.

According to a survey by the Washington Post, “more than 60 percent of respondents mentioned rising prices and inflation as their top concerns, followed by low wages and unemployment.” If a candidate can guarantee the government will not start firing workers en masse in outdated industries and will maintain salaries and pensions at a decent level — all while looking and sounding like a more progressive politician — they have a solid chance of winning hearts and minds.