Suffered worst quarter......

U.S. suffered worst quarterly contraction on record as virus ravages economy

When the economy was tumbling in the second quarter, Trump pumped up the third quarter. Now the high hopes are slowly deflating.

By BEN WHITE

The U.S. economy crashed in historic fashion this year — shrinking at a nearly 33 percent annualized pace in the second quarter — as the coronavirus pandemic ravaged businesses and sent joblessness soaring. The question now for President Donald Trump, trailing in the polls and facing a daunting reelection effort, is just how much conditions can snap back in the months leading up to Election Day.

At least for the moment, the spike in Covid-19 cases, the potential for fresh trouble this fall and a bitter fight over how to pump more federal money into the ailing economy suggest the sharp bounce-back Trump is counting on may not show up in a way he envisions.

And the potential for another leg of the downturn hangs over a president who once counted the economy as by far his strongest selling point to voters.

“This is obviously the ugliest quarter we’ve ever seen in our history,” Edward Moya, senior analyst at currency trading firm OANDA, said of the Commerce Department’s initial estimate of second-quarter gross domestic product, which showed the economy contracting 32.9 percent on an annualized basis, the biggest drop in more than seven decades of records.

“A couple of weeks ago there was a lot more optimism that we would see a strong V-shaped recovery,” Moya said. But right now “there is a lot of bad news about how some areas are handling the virus. And every day we don’t have a new stimulus agreement in place is hurting the economy.”

The only thing perfectly clear so far is that the economy took a massive gut punch in the second quarter as restaurants, bars, stores and other businesses shut down, many for good, and many Americans remained largely shuttered in their homes. The GDP estimate showed massive drops in both personal consumption, down 34.6 percent, and private domestic investment, down 49 percent.

Thursday also brought a fresh weekly look at initial jobless claims, which began declining from a high of 6.9 million in March but jumped back up to 1.4 million last week, the first increase in nearly four months. Claims jumped again to 1.43 on Thursday, suggesting a softening in the pace of labor market recovery.

What is far less clear is how fitful re-opening efforts, the quest for a Covid-19 vaccine, a potential second wave of the virus and the bitter debate over more federal rescue money will impact the ability of the economy to recover from this deep hole. And the answer to that question will play a substantial role in whether Trump can overcome his significant polling deficit versus former Vice President Joe Biden.

“A lot of these higher infection rates are coming in swing states,” said Rubeela Farooqi, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics. For Trump, she said, “it really depends on the strength of the labor market. And if we don’t have more fiscal support very quickly it’s going to be a really big hit.”

Here are three scenarios that could play out in the coming months.

The V-shaped recovery arrives

The dream scenario for the White House is that the recent surge in virus cases and rollbacks in some re-opening efforts are not enough to keep the economy from bouncing back by 20 percent or more in the third and fourth quarters. Under this scenario, the unemployment rate keeps dropping from its current 11.1 percent thanks to continued rehiring in states that got the virus under control early. Trump himself talks up the possibility every chance he gets — avoiding talk about the states that reversed their reopening.

“We’re going to have a great year next year. We’re going to have a great third quarter,” Trump recently told Fox News. “And the nice thing about the third quarter is that the results are going to come out before the election.” Those numbers are in fact due on October 29, just five days before Election Day.

Some data suggest Trump and top advisers including Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and National Economic Council Director Larry Kudlow could be right about the third-quarter snap back.

Pending home sales rebounded strongly in May and June amid declining mortgage rates. Existing home sales also rose sharply in June. Soaring jobless claims began declining in March as states started to reopen and the unemployment rate declined from a high of 14.7 percent in April. But the increase last week suggested the fresh wave of virus cases and a return to stricter lockdown orders in some states has dented the labor market comeback.

Economists say a great deal has to go right for this rosiest of scenarios to play out including swift passage of further enhanced jobless benefits, rapid progress in vaccine development and the survival of thousands of businesses that are unlikely to make it through further lockdowns.

Not many are confident that all of this will come together.

“To me it seems like a pipe dream. I cannot image a V-shaped recovery in the offing any time soon,” said Beth Ann Bovino, chief U.S. economist at Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services. “Aside from the fact that Covid-19 doesn’t seem to be under control, this is a $22 trillion economy. You can’t turn it off and on like a light bulb.”

The economy recovers but more slowly

The most likely scenario painted by economists is that a significant bounce back does arrive in the third quarter given the depth of the drop in the second. But the persistence of the virus, reluctance of Americans to go back to their offices or go out to shop and eat and spend money keeps a lid on the scale of the recovery.

Under this scenario, the unemployment rate could stagnate or even rise again before the election as fresh lockdowns cause more businesses to lay off workers and widespread uncertainty over the future keeps a lid on business investment.

Any significant lapse in expanded jobless benefits, which officially expire July 31 but have already run out for many, could also put a major dent in spending and lead to increases in defaults on mortgages, credit cards, automobiles and other loans.

“We still have a large part of the population that still depend on these benefits,” Moya said. “And it’s not easy to be optimistic about large swaths of the labor market. I once thought we might see the unemployment rate drop to around 8 percent this year but now it looks like it will probably be higher.”

Moya added that good vaccine news probably won’t arrive until October or November with the completion of the first Phase III trials. And that means Americans will probably remain hesitant to engage in a lot of normal economic activity. “The work-from-home economy will remain resilient but you aren’t going to see a widespread return to normalcy very quickly.”

Evidence of a slowing recovery pace is also piling up. Consumer confidence sank to 92.6 in July from 98.3, according to the Conference Board, amid mounting fears of rising virus cases. The index hit a near 20-year high of 132.6 in February before the virus slammed the U.S.. Retail sales bounced in July but could fade again as virus cases mount. “Further virus-driven declines in consumer activity are likely,” Goldman Sachs analysts wrote in a recent note. “We estimate that if all states currently tightening policy imposed stricter measures similar to those just imposed in California, this would reduce U.S. consumption back to the June level.”

The economy falls off a cliff again

The doomsday scenario would feature Covid-19 raging out of control again without enough good news from Phase III vaccine trials coming this fall. It would also feature Congress failing to extend jobless benefits and pump enough streams of cash into the economy through direct payments and more aid to individuals, small businesses and state and local governments. In essence this would be a return to fiscal austerity at a time when over 30 million are receiving jobless aid and the virus remains unchecked.

Under this scenario, the jobless rate would begin rising again by August and September and the fourth quarter would see a much smaller GDP gain and perhaps even a return to contraction.

“Several things could turn this already slow recovery into a nosedive including bad health outcomes and a premature return to fiscal austerity,” said Bovino. Her team’s worst-case scenario with the virus going out of control would show a GDP drop of 8.7 percent for 2020 and 14.6 overall from the peak of the economic cycle to the trough.

A rising jobless rate, widespread new lockdowns and increased Covid-19 deaths could make Trump’s reelection prospects close to impossible. The president once enjoyed a solid lead on the economy over Biden. But recent polls show that lead has essentially evaporated. It’s likely to go negative if the economy goes in the tank again. And while not the most likely scenario, it could certainly happen.

“The worst case is we reverse all the job gains and any progress in terms of economic activity,” said Farooqi. “And that sort of spreads from the service side of the economy to manufacturing. And then instead of a strong rebound we get a slower pace of growth or even a return to contraction.”