Primary falls flat

‘The West barely exists’: California primary falls flat

“We do not deserve to be the caboose on the presidential train,” says former Gov. Gray Davis.

By DAVID SIDERS and JEREMY B. WHITE

Kamala Harris is running a distant fourth in her home state of California. Julián Castro, who rested much of his candidacy on making inroads in Nevada, remains a polling asterisk there. Three Westerners — former Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper, Washington Gov. Jay Inslee and California Rep. Eric Swalwell — have already dropped out of the Democratic presidential primary, and two more — Montana Gov. Steve Bullock and Colorado Sen. Michael Bennet — are still trying to find their footing.

In their wake, the region’s marquee contests in Nevada and California — one small early state, and one massive, Super Tuesday primary — have emerged as wide-open races. And the promise of an early California primary tilting the balance of the Democratic primary westward has fallen short.

Most campaigns are still spending far more time — and resources — in Iowa, the first caucus state, leaving Westerners to watch the campaign unfold primarily on TV. When Harris joked last month that she was “f---ing moving to Iowa,” it only underscored the uncertainty about what role — if any — the West will play in determining the nominee.

For the purposes of the presidential election, said Jerry Brown, California’s former governor and a three-time presidential candidate, right now, “The West barely exists.”

“Iowa and New Hampshire and then South Carolina — that is going to reshape the race, or shape it in some way,” Brown said, adding that the overall contest has not yet “sharpened in the way that those early elections sharpen it.”

With its massive delegate haul and its decision to move its primary next year up to Super Tuesday, in early March, California had once expected to hold a firmer grip on the early nominating contest. Democratic candidates began preliminary outreach in the state last year. Candidates not only started raising money, but rallying voters in the state since ballots will begin being mailed to millions of California voters about the same day Iowa Democrats hold their caucus.

“Iowa and New Hampshire and then South Carolina — that is going to reshape the race, or shape it in some way."

- Former California Gov. Jerry Brown.

But the primary landscape has remained tilted, as it always has, toward Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, in part because the competition in the West has been so ill-defined. Joe Biden, Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders are running nearly even in California and Nevada, with their campaigns yet to develop to the point of separation here. That’s a departure from other early states such as Iowa, where Warren has pulled ahead, or South Carolina, where Biden remains dominant.

“There were certain kinds of common wisdoms going into California — there’s lots of Latinos, and Kamala Harris or [Los Angeles Mayor] Eric Garcetti might have a base here. Those kinds of thoughts were really prevalent, and they’ve all been really put on the back burner right now, with more of the tried, true, traditional Iowa, New Hampshire,” said Paul Mitchell of Political Data Inc., the voter data firm used by both Democrats and Republicans in California. “The current narrative around the presidential race has almost forgotten that there’s a big California contest.”

Given the high cost of advertising in California’s massive media markets, he said, “I don’t think anybody can afford to make California anything but a shorter window. … In retrospect, the smart strategy is to focus on the less expensive targets for this long winter of the campaign, and make sure you have the fuel to come around and explode in California.”

The lack of a favorite in California and Nevada has reduced pressure on campaigns to spend money early in the two states, or to devote anything close to the amount of time they are spending in other early states. Biden has not held a single public event in California this year, though he has raised money in California and is expected to campaign in the state in November.

“We are totally wide open,” said Annette Magnus, executive director of the progressive group Battle Born Progress in Nevada. “There’s so much potential in a state like Nevada — and it’s a relatively small investment that you can make here, and you get a lot of bang for your buck.”

Candidates are laying groundwork to exploit that opportunity — eventually. Biden has nearly 40 staffers in Nevada. Warren has had a presence in Nevada since January and now has more than 50 staffers spread across nine offices in the state. Sanders, who narrowly lost the Nevada caucuses to Hillary Clinton in 2016, has 70 staffers in the state. In neighboring California, where Sanders spent weeks campaigning in a losing effort in 2016, the Vermont senator has 24 paid staffers.

South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg has 56 staffers in Nevada and campaigned in the state last week. And California has seen a spate of town halls, rallies and forums in the state. Tom Steyer, a Californian, was in Los Angeles planting an apple and an avocado tree last week, and national Democrats announced Friday that they will hold the year’s sixth presidential primary debate, in December, in Los Angeles.

Doug Herman, a Democratic strategist in California, described the campaigns’ efforts in the state as “still rudimentary, and they should be at this point. … None of what happens in a Super Tuesday state prior to Iowa and New Hampshire is relevant unless it’s an error.”

But in Nevada, the contest has taken on a greater urgency because of its earlier place on the calendar. And despite its small size, staffing requirements can be significant because of the difficulties campaigning in a state with a large shift-work and transient population.

“Nevada is a place where there’s no playbook in how to win,” said Alana Mounce, the Nevada State Democratic Party’s executive director.

Nevada has held its early caucuses only since 2008, and unlike in Iowa — with its state fair, fundraising dinners and other traditional candidate cattle calls — campaigning in Nevada is less prescribed.

“Since there is no formula, it’s hard to say who has the leg up here, because there are not those certain boxes you have to check to demonstrate that there’s momentum,” Mounce said.

For a candidate who fails to win Iowa or New Hampshire, Nevada — caucusing just before South Carolina — could be a campaign-saving state. But it could also be a death knell for a candidate who cannot appeal to nonwhite voters, with the largest Latino population — 29 percent — of any of the early-voting states.

In particular, Nevada stands to challenge Buttigieg’s attempt to join the campaign’s top tier. Despite his massive fundraising and large staffing, he continues to struggle with nonwhite voters. Michael Ceraso, his former New Hampshire director, said he is “not resonating with communities of color,” a shortcoming that could be first exposed in Nevada.

Jason Frierson, Nevada’s Assembly speaker, suggested Nevada still presents an opportunity for Buttigieg or any other candidate to grow. Nevadans, he said, are still “waiting to assess the candidates.”

“I think that there are some candidates who have put a lot of sweat equity into Nevada early, and every single one of them that has reached out to me, I’ve told them that we are a small state, but we are an early state, and our folks remember those one-on-one relationships,” he said. “Our folks remember that candidate’s presence here.”

And by Super Tuesday, Californians likely will, as well. Gray Davis, a former Democratic governor, said it is possible that California’s effort to play a more significant role in the nominating process “may not play itself out in this election, it may not play itself out in the next election.”

However, he said, it has a better chance of being significant now than it did when it held its primary in June.

“Look, California is the fifth-largest economy in the world,” Davis said. “That means only the United States, China, Japan and Germany have a larger economy. We do not deserve to be the caboose on the presidential train.”