Losing the Trust

Is Putin Losing the Trust of Russians?

He’s facing embarrassing failures at home and abroad, and the Russian public is pushing back.

By FRIDA GHITIS

Every year, Russian President Vladimir Putin stars in a big show, an hours-long televised question-and-answer marathon in which the president hears the people’s complaints, promises to tackle their problems and explains his views on a wide range of subjects. With more than a million questions submitted, organizers can choose carefully. But there was a hitch with this year’s annual extravaganza. On Thursday, somehow, the wrong questions got on the air—like one that flashed on the screen, “Only one question: When will you go away?”

To many Americans incensed by Russia’s role in the 2016 U.S. election and by President Donald Trump’s attitude toward Russia since then, Putin seems like a master manipulator. At home, however, it doesn’t quite look that way. After nearly two decades in power, Putin is under pressure. The Russian public is less impressed with his swaggering on the global stage and is running out of patience with the stagnant economy at home, rising poverty, rampant corruption, repression and widespread abuses of power, according to Russian opinion surveys.

Putin remains firmly in command, without an imminent threat to his rule. But recent events now suggest a possible tipping point: On a number of fronts, at home and abroad, Putin has faced embarrassing failures, and the population, disenchanted, has lost trust in him, becoming restless enough to challenge his authority boldly. At the very least, this is a trying time for the Russian president. Retrospectively, we may find that it marked the end of his peak power—the results of which would surely reverberate across the world.

What does the Putin pushback look like in Russia? In one remarkable turn of events last week, authorities came under so much pressure after arresting investigative journalist Ivan Golunov and fabricating charges against him, that they ended up dropping all charges and releasing him. In a country where journalists who publish material critical of the Kremlin turn up dead, the government’s reaction to the growing wave of protests reveals a regime nervous about the public.

Just as noteworthy was the passion that drove the backlash against Golunov’s arrest. Journalists and other Russians took enormous risks, massing in front of the police headquarters to demand his release. Three major newspapers, normally faithful to the Kremlin, published banner headlines proclaiming, “We Are Ivan Golunov.” Putin perhaps worried about appearing weak before ordering that the charges against Golunov be dropped—but he had good reason to fear an emboldened populace.

Meanwhile, the Russian economy, though out of recession, is barely growing. The economic boom that fueled Putin’s popularity faded after oil prices collapsed years ago. Living standards are falling, and the government’s efforts to curb expenses have sparked a furious reaction. Ever since last year’s move to raise the retirement age to just below the life expectancy of the average Russian man, Russians have been protesting with more fervor. Anti-corruption activists, despite repeated arrests, find their message resonating with protesters too. It’s easier to tolerate the sight of Putin’s friends becoming billionaires when your life is improving. Not now. While Putin’s bold moves across Russia’s borders once boosted Russians’ sense of patriotism, the cost of foreign adventures is taking a toll on family budgets.

Growth this year is expected to remain anemic, around 1 percent, with disposable income dropping. The government plans major infrastructure spending, but the mixture of corruption and international sanctions is not helping. Foreign investment has all but vanished. The sanctions, imposed after Putin forcibly annexed Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula in 2014 and intervened in eastern Ukraine—and later expanded by the Obama administration in response to Russia’s intervention in the U.S. election—have shaved about only 1 percent off GDP, according to the International Monetary Fund. But the sense of lawlessness, the arrests, the corruption, have scared away investors.

The economic stagnation is eroding Putin’s once-stratospheric approval ratings. The leader who strode bare-chested across Siberia is now trusted by just 31.7 percent of Russians, according to state pollster VTsIOM, down from more than 71 percent in 2015, after the Crimea invasion. (After that 31.7 percent was reported earlier this year, the Kremlin demanded an explanation. The pollster revised its methodology, and the poll leapt back to 72 percent.) Putin’s approval rating, a slightly different measure, remains at 60 percent—respectable but sharply lower than his near-90 percent a few years ago.

For years, Russian activists have told Westerners that their image of Putin as a mustache-twirling evil genius is far off the mark. Sure, Putin intervened in Syria and helped to save Bashar Assad, and his brazen campaign to help elect Trump managed to fool American voters. Trump is president and remains curiously reluctant to criticize Putin, delaying and resisting the imposition of U.S. sanctions even after Congress approved them with veto-proof majorities.

But if Putin expected Trump to lift sanctions, that has not panned out. As he told Russian viewers on the call-in show, “Even if [Trump] wants to take some steps forward … there are plenty of restrictions coming from other state structures.”

Putin’s ploys have gone off the rails elsewhere. Last year, Greece expelled Russian diplomats, accusing them of working to sabotage a plan to end a decades-old dispute over Macedonia’s name. The dispute had blocked Macedonia from joining NATO, so Moscow did not want it resolved. Intercepted communications identified Kremlin agents spreading disinformation and paying off Greek protesters to reject an agreement between Greece and Macedonia. The deal succeeded despite Moscow’s efforts. Russia’s geopolitical goal was thwarted, and its intelligence ploy failed.

In Sudan, Russia reportedly worked late last year to try to quash pro-democracy protests aimed at toppling the regime of dictator Omar al-Bashir, who had just visited the Kremlin. Documents uncovered by the Dossier Center, headed by the formerly imprisoned Putin critic Mikhail Khodorkovsky from London and shown to CNN, found that Kremlin-linked figures had advised Bashir on how to crack down on demonstrators. (Experts say Russia views Sudan as key to its plan for expanded influence and business activities in Africa.) The plan to save Bashir apparently failed—protesters managed to topple him—though the military remains in power.

If Putin feels his hold on power is slipping, it could affect his international behavior. He might seek to regain the initiative with a renewed challenge to U.S. power, or he might retrench, refocusing at home. Either way, the results of his actions will be felt across the West, where Moscow has been actively fomenting discord. U.S. intelligence officials believe he still plans to interfere in the 2020 elections. And the nationalist wave in Europe has brought like-minded politicians to power, eager to improve relations—which could help block any further moves by the European Union to curb Putin’s behavior.

Putin’s current term runs until 2024. He has the time and tools to firm his grip. But his seeming cloak of invincibility is torn, particularly at home. Almost two decades after he came to power, Russians have lost faith in his skills and are wondering if he has lost his touch. Critics, managing to ask on television when he will go, wonder if they might push him out any sooner, or at least pressure him to make reforms.