Bet on his own future?

Mike Pompeo’s dilemma: Stick with Trump or bet on his own future

The secretary of State is quietly weighing a Senate campaign that could pave the way for a future White House run.

By BURGESS EVERETT and ELIANA JOHNSON

Mike Pompeo is the GOP’s best shot at keeping a must-win Senate seat in Republican hands. But he’s also the most stable national security voice in an administration that’s constantly on the verge of cracking up — setting up a high-stakes dilemma for the secretary of State and his party.

Pompeo said in February that he had “ruled out” a Senate run in 2020 but several of his confidants say that is simply not the case and that he is quietly evaluating the next steps in his political career.

Over the coming months, the former GOP congressman will have to decide whether to stay as one of President Donald Trump’s most trusted advisers — something many Trump allies say is his patriotic duty amid myriad international crises — or seek a Senate seat in Kansas that could lay the groundwork for a presidential run of his own.

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell is pushing hard for Pompeo to choose the latter.

“He’s still my first choice,” the Kentucky Republican, who talks to Trump frequently, said in an interview. “I doubt that the president would agree with that. But he’s my first choice” for the Kansas Senate seat.

Few GOP politicians have more ambition or the prospect of upward mobility than Pompeo, whom senior Republicans would back without hesitation if he entered the race to succeed retiring Sen. Pat Roberts (R-Kan.).

For Pompeo, a Senate run could be a prelude to a presidential run in 2024. At the least, a spot in the Senate would keep him politically relevant regardless of Trump’s fate in 2020. Still, some senators said privately that the gravitas of the secretary of State post would position him better for a White House run than if he were one of the most junior senators in the building.

Pompeo himself has spoken privately about the prospect of a presidential run. He and his friend Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) attended a private dinner at the American Enterprise Institute’s annual retreat in Sea Island, Ga., this spring.

Asked whether he’s considered running for president, Pompeo responded, “I have,” and then pointed at Cotton and joked: “And I might be running against that guy,” according to one attendee.

A spokesperson for Pompeo declined to comment.

But senators and associates stress that Pompeo is consumed with his current responsibilities, particularly as potential for conflict with Iran looms, and will take his time in assessing whether the Senate is the right move for both him and the GOP.

“He’s totally committed to his current job, which is 24/7,” Roberts said. “He can wait awhile.”

McConnell’s interest in Pompeo is straightforward. He’s the best bet to keep the seat and avoid a nightmare scenario: Kansas primary voters nominate arch-conservative Kris Kobach while former Gov. Kathleen Sebelius becomes the Democratic nominee, and the race turns into an instant toss-up.

Pompeo’s entry would clear the field and dissuade Sebelius from running, Republicans say, and prevent the party from having to drain millions in a deep-red state to defend their narrow Senate majority. Kobach, who has already expressed interest in a Senate run, lost to a Democrat just last year in Kansas’ gubernatorial race.

Republican Rep. Roger Marshall is considering entering the race, but the GOP believes Pompeo would be far stronger. Pompeo flirted with a Senate primary challenge in 2016 when Republican Sen. Jerry Moran briefly endorsed the idea of holding a confirmation hearing for Merrick Garland, Barack Obama's Supreme Court nominee.

The prospect of a Senate run first surfaced last winter, shortly after Roberts announced his retirement in January. McConnell and his allies pressed Pompeo to run for the seat, but Pompeo told NBC News’ “Today Show” that he would not run.

“I love Kansas. I’m going to be the secretary of State as long as President Trump gives me the opportunity,” Pompeo said in February. “I love doing what I’m doing.”

Influential outside groups, however, are still holding out hope. The conservative Club for Growth earlier this month circulated the results of a poll indicating that Trump-linked lobbyist Matt Schlapp is its preferred candidate for the seat — if Pompeo does not run.

In early June, the Club also polled, but did not release, Pompeo’s favorability rating. Among registered voters in Kansas, 70 percent had a positive impression of the secretary of State while 10 percent had a negative view, according to results shared by Club for Growth President David McIntosh. It was the highest of any potential GOP contender polled.

But the implosion of Patrick Shanahan’s Defense secretary nomination and the long-term instability in key national security positions have made Pompeo’s job as secretary of State all the more important to Republicans concerned about Trump administration turmoil.

Pompeo is a survivor in Trump’s White House reality show, winning bipartisan backing as CIA director then leaping to the State Department to clean up the mess left behind by the ousted Rex Tillerson.

“We could use him in the Senate. But he’s also serving a really important role at State. He likes politics. My guess is it’s a little bit of a struggle as he tries to figure out how he can best serve the country,” said Sen. Roy Blunt (R-Mo.), the No. 4 GOP leader. “Maybe that’s by staying as secretary of State.”

If Pompeo left months before the 2020 election, it could create yet another acting Cabinet head in a critical department with the state of U.S. foreign policy unsettled. And friends and associates of Pompeo expressed concern about a Senate run that would leave the Trump administration without an important hand steadying a ship of state that could easily veer off course — with one confidante suggesting it would be “irresponsible” for Pompeo to leave.

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“This Administration has a *very* thin bench,” emailed Stephen Biddle, an adjunct senior fellow for defense policy at the Council on Foreign Relations. “The odds that they can find an experienced, capable SECSTATE who'd be influential with Trump are poor.”

Even some of his would-be colleagues in the Senate Republican conference are pushing for him to stay, as are some Democrats.

“We need to see stability. And I think that’s a really good signal, not only to our allies but our adversaries that we have a really well-organized, well-run government,” said Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa). “If Pompeo chooses to run for Senate, I’m all on board. But I also think he’s very well suited to continue to take us in the right direction at the State Department.”

“He brings a certain amount of credibility and he has a certain amount of strength within the eyes of the president to be able to speak truth to power maybe more than most,” said Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) one of the few Democrats who supported Pompeo for his current position. “So I’m hopeful, for that reason, that Mike will stay where he is.”

Those concerns deepened in the wake of the administration’s withdrawal of Shanahan’s nomination to take on the position permanently and his subsequent resignation as acting secretary following the revelation of a messy domestic dispute years ago.

The episode, which played out in the midst of heightened tensions with Iran, renewed concerns that the Trump administration lacks capable people to serve at the highest levels, and that it can’t adequately vet them ahead of a potential Senate confirmation.

The Department of Defense has been without a permanent leader since the resignation of James Mattis in December, and the administration has struggled to find somebody to take his place, with multiple people bowing out of the search before Trump eventually settled on Shanahan. Pompeo’s departure would inevitably set off a similarly frantic search, and Senate Republicans are in no mood for another difficult confirmation battle.

But a Senate run would help Pompeo avoid the dilemma faced by U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, who left the Trump administration this winter. Though she founded an issue-advocacy group, she lacks an obvious platform to stay in the mix on daily issues.

Pompeo has the luxury of time. The filing deadline for the primary is June 2020, allowing him to try and find a graceful exit strategy if he decides to get in.

“Many people will want him to declare earlier than that, but Pompeo can wait,” the Club for Growth’s McIntosh said. “I think you see the continued speculation because the calendar gives him that option to change his mind.”