No-deal Brexit

Michel Barnier says no-deal Brexit ‘very likely’

The EU negotiator says MPs’ failure to agree a way forward is ‘a matter of disappointment to us all.’

By LILI BAYER

A no-deal Brexit is now "very likely," the EU's chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier told a European Parliament hearing Tuesday.

Speaking to European and national lawmakers in Brussels following yet another round of inconclusive votes in the British House of Commons,  Barnier said that "as things stand now, the option of no-deal is very likely, I have to be very sincere with you."

Barnier also told the parliamentarians that the House of Commons' indecision is “a matter of disappointment to us all" and that any possible extension to the Article 50 negotiating period — to be decided on by EU leaders at a special summit next Wednesday — would require the U.K. to explain why, and to participate in the European Parliament election.

The chief negotiator also discussed the security implications of a no-deal Brexit, warning that a no-deal scenario could lead to disruptions in intelligence pooling and prevent the U.K. from participating in EU-led defense structures.

Like Barnier, some officials in EU capitals see no-deal as an increasingly likely possibility.

The “House of Commons wanted to take full control over Brexit process," Konrad Szymański, Poland's state secretary for EU Affairs, told POLITICO on Tuesday. "It is not fully successful ... it is [a] paradoxical situation — almost no one wants no-deal, but it is more and more [the] dominant option on the horizon," he added.

Some European diplomats believe that the U.K. parliament is simply too divided for a solution.

“The March of folly continues," said one EU diplomat. "Whilst the House is leaning towards a soft Brexit, the divides between them point only in the direction of a no deal. So we’re not holding our breath.”

Officials from the EU27 states are increasingly frustrated.

The message from Brussels to London is "get your act together before its to late," said a second EU diplomat.

A third diplomat described the mood as "fatigue."

Some officials see a European Parliament election in the U.K. as a necessity to avoid London crashing out of the bloc.

"Now we are seriously heading towards a no deal," said a fourth EU diplomat. "This can only be avoided if [the] U.K. calls EP elections."