Despised...

Is Tom Cotton’s winning streak about to end?

The first-term senator has defeated a series of bills he despises. But he may not be able to stop criminal justice reform.

By BURGESS EVERETT

As a House freshman in 2013, Tom Cotton sat in the Capitol as GOP lawmakers went back and forth on whether to take up immigration reform. When Cotton’s turn came to speak, he ripped the proposal — and helped spark a conservative revolt that killed the bipartisan bill.

Since moving to the Senate two years later, the Arkansas Republican has also helped tank a nuclear deal with Iran, a different immigration reform deal, a border tax plan backed by Paul Ryan and early versions of the GOP’s Obamacare repeal.

Cotton has shown a flair for stopping things he opposes, dictating his party’s agenda to a remarkable degree considering his limited time in Congress. His close alliance with President Donald Trump has further boosted his influence.

But he may have met his match in criminal justice reform — which has been endorsed by Trump and a large bloc of the Senate GOP caucus.

Cotton is trying to use the same hard-edged tactics he deployed in the past to beat back the bill, arguing that Republican supporters will be held accountable if someone let out of prison under the bill’s terms commits a serious crime.

“We shouldn’t release serious and repeat-violence felons, which is what the bill will do. It will be bad for anyone who votes for it,” Cotton said in an interview Wednesday. Political strategists “think this bill will be as toxic as immigration. Or more so. You’re not going to be insulated from it” just because the president backs it.

Still, Cotton’s crusade against the bill, which relaxes some federal sentencing guidelines and encourages anti-recidivism programs, was dealt a serious blow on Tuesday when Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) announced plans to bring it to the floor. Trump and his son-in-law, White House official Jared Kushner, had been leaning on Republican leaders for weeks to bring the prison and sentencing reform bill up.

“We’re getting a lump of coal for Christmas,” said one Cotton political ally.

Yet Cotton is going to continue his opposition, saying he won’t allow quick passage unless he gets votes on amendments that could rupture the bill’s fragile coalition. The government is set to enter a partial shutdown next Friday without bipartisan action, and Cotton could drag out the debate on criminal justice reform until just before that deadline if he so wishes.

“If Democrats and the Republicans that support this bill are too scared to vote on these amendments, maybe they should think twice about bringing up such a dangerous bill in the first place,” he said.

The bill’s backers have accommodated some of Cotton’s critiques, moving to fill potential loopholes that could make violent offenders eligible for earlier release. But now that the bill is finished and moving forward, some of Cotton’s colleagues say he’s already lost and his political arguments are falling flat.

Asked whether Cotton has any hope of derailing the bill, Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) replied: “Uh, no.”

“I like Sen. Cotton but that argument? Taking it to its logical conclusion, you never let anybody out for anything,” Graham said of the idea Republicans will be blamed for early release of repeat offenders.

“I understand that Sen. Cotton feels strongly about this bill. So do a lot of other members … who think this is a good bill that will improve our criminal justice system,” said Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah), who has argued with Cotton about the bill on Twitter. “It’s not a ‘jailbreak.’ It’s not going to result in a crime wave.”

Most of the president’s close allies in the Senate, from Graham to GOP Sens. Rand Paul of Kentucky and David Perdue of Georgia have backed the prison and sentencing reform. But despite their disagreement, a person who knows both Trump and Cotton said it hasn’t yet affected their relationship.

Cotton agreed: “The president is well aware of where I stand on the issue and respects my stance.”

At a minimum, Cotton’s argument holds sway with more than a dozen GOP senators who are undecided or oppose the bill. It’s certainly not enough to stop the bill on a final vote, but it’s a significant number given McConnell’s reluctance to divide his conference on the floor.

Senate Minority Whip Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) conceded of Cotton: “He’s a good stopper.” But Durbin said he can’t imagine him winning this bout.

Even as the bill’s advocates presented whip counts showing more than 70 votes to pass the legislation, the internal GOP fight continued behind closed doors on Wednesday. At a party lunch, Cotton and Lee argued about whether the bill was actually finished and how substantive the changes have been, according to multiple attendees.

Shortly thereafter, the bill was officially released. It immediately hit a roadblock as Sen. John Kennedy (R-La.), a Cotton ally, said he will not allow it to come to the floor quickly. Kennedy hasn’t decided whether he dislikes this version as much as previous iterations that would be improved with a “shredder,” but he needs time to digest it.

“I need to know what’s in the bill before I’m asked to vote on it. And that will undoubtedly upset some people. But they need to call somebody who cares,” Kennedy said.

Kennedy’s move to slow the bill could make it more difficult to complete before the government funding deadline. But advocates say if the Senate has the will to complete the bill, they should work through attacks on the policies and politics.

“We’ve been through this. Painstakingly gone through this start to finish,” Durbin said of their compromise. “But we’ll undoubtedly prevail. And hopefully we can fend off amendments.”

The latest version of the legislation makes more categories of offenders ineligible to earn “good time” credits for early release, though Cotton argues there are still too many gaps in the bill that allow serious criminals to win early release. But the bill’s supporters say it won’t just automatically allow the release of people just because they are eligible.

“It’s not just because there’s an offer of a lower sentence or release that they will be granted that,” said Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa), a sponsor of the bill.

But some Senate Republicans are still caught between Cotton’s argument and that of the pro-reform crowd.

“We have too many nonviolent people that are sent to prison and come out a criminal. But I want to protect the streets from violent criminals,” said Sen. Richard Shelby (R-Ala.), one of a handful of Republicans still agonizing over the bill.

Added Sen. Deb Fischer (R-Neb.): “It’s obvious Sen. Cotton doesn’t like the bill. It’s very clear. I’m waiting to see what’s in the bill.”

Cotton says he’s seen enough to know he hates it, blasting out news releases identifying 35 types of violent criminals he says are still eligible for release. And in the interview, he said even if he doesn’t win the fight, he’s still made his foes respond to his latest campaign.

“They’ve already yielded to a lot of my proposals even though they suggested at the time they were wrong or fake news,” Cotton said. “Every proposal I am making would make the bill less dangerous to public safety, whether it passes or whether it fails.”