Wide lead in California

Poll: Feinstein holds wide lead in California Senate race

By JEREMY B. WHITE

When it comes to statewide races, it’s looking increasingly like the California status quo will prevail on Election Day.

A final pre-election poll from the Public Policy Institute of California deems it likely that voters will choose continuity by elevating incumbent Sen. Dianne Feinstein over Democratic challenger Kevin de León, selecting Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom to succeed fellow Democrat Jerry Brown as governor and turning back a pair of ballot initiatives that would repeal controversial laws on rent control and gas taxes.

The findings bear out some of the underlying assumptions in California politics: Feinstein remains in a comfortable position despite an unexpectedly formidable push from de León, the former state Senate leader, and Newsom is poised to become the standard-bearer for California as an alternative and antagonist to Trumpism.

“It’s in keeping with the fact that most people think things are going in the right direction in the state and that they’re expecting good economic times in the state and the country,” said PPIC president Mark Baldassare. “It’s not a change election from that point of view.”

In the Senate race, Feinstein registered a 16-point lead (43 percent to 27 percent) over de León. While de León has sought to harness a rising wave of liberal discontent by excoriating Feinstein from the left — calling her a past-her-time figure of accommodation in a time of crisis — the 85-year-old senator has consistently led in the polls. It’s a reflection of both the power of her incumbency and a fundraising gap that has left de León struggling to introduce himself to voters across California’s expensive media markets.

The race also demonstrates the dwindling options for California conservatives in an era of Democratic hegemony: without a Republican in the contest, a majority of GOP likely voters said they would not vote for either Democrat.

Republicans do have a candidate in the governor’s contest, where businessman John Cox has mounted an underdog campaign against Newsom by highlighting the state’s spiraling affordability crisis. But Newsom continues to look like the frontrunner, boasting an 11-point (49 percent to 38 percent) advantage among likely voters.

Both gubernatorial candidates enjoy commanding support within their party base but Cox has carved out a five-point lead (43 percent to 38 percent) among independents, potentially offering a glimmer of hope to a California Republican Party seeking to appeal to the state’s growing ranks of no-party-preference voters. The unaffiliated category has eclipsed registered Republicans.

More competitive than either the gubernatorial or Senate contests have been a cluster of hotly contested California congressional races, and PPIC found the struggle over California’s House delegation is tighter.

While some polls have suggested Democrats’ national turnout edge is eroding, PPIC found that among likely voters California Democrats are more likely to proclaim enthusiasm about voting in congressional races (67 percent) than their Republican (45 percent) or independent (42 percent) counterparts. That reflects in part Donald Trump’s enduring toxicity for much of California’s electorate: his approval rating sat at 39 percent among likely voters, and more wanted their representatives to push back against Trump than work with him.

On the other hand, likely voters gave a five-point edge to Republicans (49 percent to 44 percent) in competitive races, although the 11 contests PPIC considered in that tally included more conservative-leaning seats like those represented by Republicans Tom McClintock and Duncan Hunter.

“These are districts that, though they’re undergoing demographic and political change, have a lot of Republicans in them,” Baldassare said. “We’re a state that’s very polarized in terms of how Democrats and Republicans see the world.”

Voters are also poised to reject a pair of ballot measures that have collectively drawn tens of millions of dollars.

A seven-point plurality (48 percent to 41 percent) said they would vote against Proposition 6, which would repeal a transit-funding gas tax passed by the legislature last year. Brown and a well-funded front uniting labor and business interests are trying to defend the levy from Republicans who see Proposition 6 as a turnout driver, with prominent members like Rep. Kevin McCarthy and Speaker of the House Paul Ryan spending cash to put it on the ballot.

And Proposition 10, a vehicle for repealing a quarter-century-old state law restricting cities and counties from enacting rent control, was deep underwater with just 25 percent in support versus 60 percent against. While the measure’s proponents call it a needed corrective to soaring rents and displacement — two-thirds of likely voters called housing affordability a big problem — an opposition campaign funded generously by the real estate industry has warned it would suppress construction and push rentals off the market.

“To get voters to agree to change a law that’s been made is very hard because in many ways they feel like — are they qualified to do that?” Baldassare said, adding that the result “really speaks to the fact that even in areas where people think something is wrong, they have to be really convinced that an initiative will make it right.”