Democrats make bid for Great Plains

Democrats make late bid for governorships in deep-red Great Plains

Democrats in Kansas, Oklahoma and South Dakota are within striking distance of shocking gubernatorial wins on Election Day.

By DANIEL STRAUSS

Democrats are making a surprise play for a trio of governorships deep in the heart of Trump country.

South Dakota hasn’t elected a Democratic governor since the 1970s, and Kansas and Oklahoma have swung hard toward Republicans since they last elected Democratic governors in 2006. It’s been more than a half-century since any of the Great Plains states have gone Democratic at the presidential level. But Democratic candidates in all three states have latched onto local issues and cast themselves as outsiders separate from their national party, and public polling has shown margins in all three races in the single digits, with South Dakota and Kansas looking particularly close.

The Republican candidates in Oklahoma and Kansas have been weighed down by unpopular predecessors and local schisms — Oklahoma Gov. Mary Fallin is possibly the most unpopular governor in the country, while former Kansas Gov. Sam Brownback was a controversial figure in his state and even within his party. And in South Dakota, Democratic nominee Billie Sutton, a paraplegic former cowboy, has hammered GOP Rep. Kristi Noem as a Washington insider.

The unexpectedly competitive races highlight an unusual gubernatorial landscape, with Republicans in command in a number of usually blue East Coast states but Democrats challenging GOP control in the Midwest — and now the Great Plains.

"There's always been an opportunity for candidates in these states to be competitive under the right set of circumstances," said former Sen. Tom Daschle (D-S.D.), who has raised money for Sutton. "In this case, you've got candidates who can win that magic formula,” Daschle continued — persuading independents and a number of Republican-leaning voters.

The Democratic candidates have played off tensions in the state Republican parties, especially after tough primaries for all three GOP candidates earlier this year. Noem overcame state Attorney General Marty Jackley in a close primary in South Dakota, while in Kansas, Secretary of State Kris Kobach narrowly defeated sitting GOP Gov. Jeff Colyer for the nomination. And in Oklahoma, GOP nominee Kevin Stitt had to fight through a crowded primary and then a long runoff against the former mayor of Oklahoma City.

Stitt's GOP opponents "hammered Stitt on stuff that wasn't accurate in the primary," said former Sen. Tom Coburn (R-Okla.), pointing out that Lt. Gov. Todd Lamb never endorsed Stitt after losing the nomination. "So what you have is spoiled children in the Republican Party not coming together."

Coburn, who nevertheless predicted that Stitt will win comfortably next week, blamed the Oklahoma Republican Party and Fallin's tenure as governor for weighing down Stitt's chances.

"Stitt and Fallin are polar opposites. I mean, she really is a [big-spending] Republican, and he really is a smart businessman that knows how to cut costs and make money," Coburn said. "That, I think, is the division. But she's created a terrible reputation for Republicans."

Laura Kelly, the Democratic nominee in Kansas, has steadily rolled out endorsements from former Republican governors while linking Kobach to Brownback's tax policies.

"Over the last four years, the Democrats and really the media have just hammered Brownback for a lot of his policy issues,” Kansas Republican Party Chairman Kelly Arnold said. “They try to tout that tax issues were bad under Brownback, and the Democrats are trying to stick that blame on our candidate.”

Republicans have fired back by trying to stick Hillary Clinton and other national figures to the Democrats.

The Republican Governors Association group supporting Stitt in Oklahoma has aired ads saying Democrat Drew Edmondson, a former state attorney general, "stood with Hillary.” The ad also accuses Edmondson of complicity in former President Barack Obama’s “takeover of health care" before noting that President Donald Trump has endorsed Stitt.

In South Dakota, Noem's campaign has started airing ads featuring neighbors saying that Sutton "will campaign as a conservative and then turn around and govern as a liberal."

The ads reflect the Republican-leaning reality in all three states, where the Democrats have campaigned knowing they can’t rely only on a fired-up party base to win. Chris Wilson, a Republican consultant, said that watching Edmondson’s TV ads, “you’d think the guy was a Republican.”

"No Democrat can win a statewide office in the state of Kansas with only Democratic votes," Kelly said in an interview. “The math just doesn't work.”

Edmondson, in an interview, said he doesn't need to win the majority of Republican votes to win the race — but he needs to peel off some of them.

"It doesn't have to be 50 percent. But it needs to be a good 10 percent, plus the lion's share of independents," for a Democrat to win Oklahoma, Edmondson said.

South Dakota, where Sutton’s internal polling has shown him with narrow single-digit leads, according to a Democrat with knowledge of the surveys, may be the most troubling race for Republicans. Public polling has been close in Kansas, but independent Greg Orman’s presence on the ballot could siphon anti-Kobach votes away from Kelly, while Oklahoma is arguably the reddest state of the three and a tough target for Edmondson.

But on Tuesday, Kelly got an unusual boost when Orman’s campaign treasurer resigned from his job and endorsed the Democrat. The treasurer, Tim Owens, said in his resignation letter that Kobach would be “one of the worst things that could happen to our state.”

Kansas Democrats also hope that Kelly could benefit from “reverse coattails” from two competitive congressional campaigns. Sharice Davids and Paul Davis are running to represent a pair of GOP-held battleground districts.

“We have two very competitive congressional races, which have drawn national resources and national attention,” said former Kansas Gov. Kathleen Sebelius, a Democrat. “So for the first time in a long time, we have somebody at the top of the ticket who doesn’t have to carry the whole field by herself.”