Florida

UNF poll: Gillum edging DeSantis, Nelson and Scott tied

By MARC CAPUTO

Democrat Andrew Gillum is maintaining a slight lead over Republican Ron DeSantis in Florida’s race for governor, while the U.S. Senate contest between Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson and Republican Gov. Rick Scott is tied, according to the latest poll from the University of North Florida.

The UNF poll also shows that 71 percent of likely Florida voters back a proposed state constitutional amendment to restore the voting rights of former felons, except for murderers and sex offenders. An amendment needs 60 percent support to pass.

In showing a tied Senate race while finding that likely voters favor Gillum over DeSantis by 4 percentage points — just outside the poll’s error margin — the UNF survey reflects recent polls showing that a Democratic “blue wave” might not be strong enough to carry Nelson to a fourth term.

UNF pollster Michael Binder said the big difference between the two contests comes down to buzz and work ethic. Gillum has both right now and Nelson doesn’t.

“Gillum has been campaigning. And there’s more excitement and enthusiasm for Gillum,” Binder said. “He has a lot of press. He’s out there. He’s doing things. I’m not sure I can say the same of Bill Nelson.”

Nelson’s campaign disputes the notion he’s been too dormant on the campaign trail, but Binder’s sentiment is widely shared by political insiders and observers.

In the Senate race, the Democrats and Nelson’s campaign have also been outspent on TV by Scott and his Republican allies, by $8.4 million to $11.3 million since the Aug. 28 primary, according to NBC News. On Monday, Scott’s campaign will begin running an ad calling his opponent “No Show Nelson” for missing committee hearings as the governor tries to make the case that Nelson’s career is long on years but short on accomplishments.

Despite the spending disparity, Nelson is tied with Scott at 45 percent.

Among Democrats, Nelson is supported by 78 percent and Scott by 9 percent. Among Republicans, 83 percent say they’ll back Scott and 12 percent favor Nelson. Put another way, Democrats support Nelson over Scott by 69 percentage points and Republicans back Scott by 71 points.

Nelson’s big advantage: independents. He leads this group by 17 points, 52-35 percent.

Independents also favor Gillum in the UNF poll by 13 points, 47-34 percent.

Independents account for about 20 percent of the poll, Republicans were about 41 percent of the sample and Democrats almost 40 percent.

Among Republicans, DeSantis leads Gillum 81-11 percent, an advantage of 71 percent that’s on par with Scott’s support. But among Democrats, Gillum does better than Nelson — he beats DeSantis by a margin of 79 points, 85-6 percent.

Overall, Gillum leads DeSantis 47-43 percent in the poll of 605 likely voters, completed Wednesday, that has an error margin of 3.9 percentage points.

As the first African-American candidate for governor nominated by the Florida Democratic Party, Gillum is receiving 80 percent of the black vote to DeSantis’s 5 percent. And, as word continues to spread of his candidacy, it’s expected to grow higher still. The intensity of his Democratic support might also be higher than Nelson’s because Gillum has campaigned as the most liberal candidate ever nominated by the party, which has drifted farther left in recent years just as the Republican Party has drifted right. Nelson doesn’t embrace many of Gillum’s positions, from a “Medicare for all” plan to raising the minimum wage to $15.

“Nelson wants no part of any of that but. But he’ll take the votes Gillum brings,” Binder said. “Having Gillum win that primary is the best thing that happened to Bill Nelson.”