He’s going to do it?

‘He’s going to do it … He’s got a theory’

Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper is gearing up for an unconventional 2020 presidential run.

By DAVID SIDERS

Gov. John Hickenlooper is methodically moving toward a 2020 presidential bid that would cut against the leftward grain of the Democratic Party’s base and draw on elements of John McCain’s 2000 campaign blueprint.

With the rollout of a new political action committee and ramped up campaign travel, the two-term Colorado governor is burnishing his national profile and attempting to develop a theory of the case for his candidacy, according to Democrats with whom he has spoken.

Hickenlooper himself volunteers he is “working with how to talk about” his centrist political profile in a Democratic presidential primary where the grassroots energy will be on the left and progressive women and non-white candidates will capture the interest of the party base as never before.

“Look at all these primaries, right?” he said in an interview, referring to this year’s historic gains by women candidates and progressives. “People like me have been casualties along the side of the road in many of these cases.”

On issues such as the environment and health care, he argues, Democrats’ differences are often overstated.

“There’s a lot of commotion about whether one person or another is pure enough,” he said. “And yet, you step back and look at views on climate change, views on environmental issues, health care, public safety, judicial reform … There are differences in style and process, how you plan to go from one place to another. But most Democrats share a certain strong commonality.”

“If I’m right, and there is — and I don’t know if I’m right. That’s what I’m trying to figure out,” he said. “I’m still trying to look at if there is a lane for someone like me, which I think is an absolutely fair question.”

Hickenlooper is enamored of images of McCain’s “Straight Talk Express” and the governor would likely need the media attention that unrelenting media access could provide. A former pub owner and Denver mayor, Hickenlooper was among several Democrats considered by Hillary Clinton for her running mate in 2016. But like other governors and mayors mulling 2020 campaigns, Hickenlooper will start with a relatively light footprint nationally.

“The challenge for a Hickenlooper, or for that matter many of the other candidates, is how do you raise the resources in order to be competitive,” said former Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack, who briefly ran for president in 2008 and whose advice Hickenlooper sought this year. “Either you have your own money … or you have to have 1 million Twitter followers or Facebook followers like Elizabeth Warren has, so they’re sending you two or three dollars every month. The challenge for a governor is how do you get the resources that allows you to create the traction that leads to 1 million Twitter followers.”

Vilsack, a former secretary of agriculture in the Obama administration, said, “I think what Hickenlooper’s going to try to figure out is how do I just totally approach this thing differently … I think he’ll figure out a way to convey his difference in ads.”

In Colorado, Hickenlooper’s attention-grabbing ads are legendary. As mayor of Denver in 2005, he parachuted in his suit and tie from a plane for an advertisement supporting a pair of ballot measures related to state spending (“Actually John Hickenlooper,” the caption read. “Actually at 13,000 feet.”).

Running for governor in 2010, he cut an ad in a shower in full dress, decrying negative ads, saying, “Every time I see one, I feel like I need to take a shower.”

Hickenlooper opened a political action committee, Giddy Up PAC, last week, turning a phrase that he often uses into a vehicle for 2020 maneuvering. But even if he can draw attention to himself, it is unclear that his message will resonate outside the moderate confines of Colorado.

If he runs, Hickenlooper is expected to place heavy emphasis on economic development, especially in rural America — an issue that appears better suited for a general election audience than the Democratic base.

“His biggest hurdle I think is this: He has been able to be a moderate in Colorado because it’s a purple state,” said Gary Hart, the former Colorado senator and two-time presidential candidate who spoke with Hickenlooper at length about a potential campaign. “But that’s a world of difference [from] running in primaries in partisan Democratic caucuses and primaries. The turnout there are people who care deeply about certain issues, the [Brett] Kavanaugh nomination or climate change or whatever. If he moderates, if he runs a general election campaign in those deep-breathing Democratic states, he will not get the nomination.”

In their meeting, Hart said, Hickenlooper took notes about the mechanics of a presidential campaign.

“He’s a very honest guy,” Hart said. “He’s blunt to a fault. By that I mean, he’ll just say exactly what’s on his mind. There’s very little guile or trickery, if any. That’s what his appeal has been here.”

But even Hickenlooper can see the difficulty he would face in a party that has moved leftward since he won election to the first of two terms as governor in 2010.

In recent years, he has taken steps to become more progressive. He opposed legalizing recreational marijuana before softening his view, telling Bloomberg News that “it’s becoming clear that this is a better system than the old system.” In his 2016 book “The Opposite of Woe,” Hickenlooper described his changing views on the death penalty, as well, writing, “I am against the death penalty. Well, first I was for it. But now I am against it.”

But Hickenlooper has been criticized by environmentalists for his permissive approach to hydraulic fracturing, despite supporting ambitious climate change policies. And he remains more moderate fiscally than many Democrats.

“I think he has a lane: that lane is of a pragmatic, pro-trade business oriented Democrat who has a very progressive social record, and a more centrist view of economic issues,” said Alan Salazar, a former Hickenlooper strategist in Colorado.

Salazar acknowledged that “primary politics doesn’t lend itself to that kind of message.” But he said, “If Democrats are smart, and I hope we are, we’ll be open to the John Hickenloopers of the world.”

Hickenlooper, who is termed out of the governor’s office, runs almost no political risk in running for president. If unsuccessful, he could still position himself for a Cabinet position in a Democratic administration, or for a future U.S. Senate run.

“I think he understands that he’s a long-shot,” said Floyd Ciruli, a Denver-based pollster. Ciruli said Hickenlooper’s candidacy will likely depend on a large field of more progressive candidates gridlocking.

“His goal is to start early and see if he can become the leader of the outside governors, moderates,” Ciruli said. “He’s going to do it … He’s got a theory.”

Hickenlooper’s own view of the emerging field appears to support that assessment.

“I think there’s going to be a few superstars that are self-funded, and therefore they’re probably not going to suck up all the money,” Hickenlooper said. “You’re going to have a bunch of very liberal, very progressive people that have maybe a different strategy of how we’re going to get to the next stage.”

Then, he added, “We’ll probably have … several people like myself. I won’t be the only one.”