60 GOP House seats in danger

POLITICO race ratings: 60 GOP House seats in danger

The Senate is a tightrope walk for Democrats.

By STEVEN SHEPARD

Roughly 100 of the 240 Republican-controlled House seats are currently within Democratic reach, posing the most serious threat to the GOP majority since the party won control in 2010.

Despite the GOP’s built-in advantages due to incumbency and redistricting, 60 of those seats are even more precariously positioned, with the Republican nominee either holding just a slight competitive edge, dead even against their Democratic opponent or trailing.

The Senate landscape isn’t so grim for the GOP: Democrats essentially have to run the table of competitive races to reclaim control of the chamber, an exercise in political needle-threading that makes the GOP the current favorites to hold their majority.

These are the findings of POLITICO’s inaugural 2018 race ratings, which reflect extensive reporting on the state of the 23-seat House GOP majority, evaluations of both parties’ strategies, historical trends and polling data.

At present, that analysis suggests the battle for the House is leaning toward Democrats, while Republicans are likely to keep control of the Senate. There are currently 206 seats where Democrats have the advantage, compared to 205 for Republicans. But more of Democrats’ seats are safely in their column when compared to Republicans, and national trends suggest the wind is at Democrats’ back.

For POLITICO’s race ratings, each of the 435 House elections, 36 Senate contests — and 36 governor’s races, too — is rated on a 7-point scale: Solid Democratic, Likely Democratic, Lean Democratic, Toss-Up, Lean Republican, Likely Republican and Solid Republican.

House

The election cycle began with Republicans holding key structural assets in the battle for House control. But over the course of the past year-and-a-half, those advantages have gradually eroded.

Republicans started with a number of entrenched incumbents in seats that swung against the GOP in last year’s presidential election. The problem? Many of them — like Ed Royce and Darrell Issa in Southern California, Rodney Frelinghuysen in New Jersey, Ileana Ros-Lehtinen in South Florida and Dave Reichert in Washington state — chose to retire rather than run for reelection. Since incumbent members typically have more campaign cash in the bank and run stronger than candidates in open seats, it provided Democrats with a more even playing field than they might have otherwise had.

All told, more than 40 House Republicans aren’t seeking reelection, and Democrats already have the advantage in a number of these seats, including those currently held by Issa, Frelinghuysen, Ros-Lehtinen and Reichert.

Many of the GOP incumbents who are running have their own problems. Fifty-six Republican incumbents were outraised by the Democratic challengers in the most recent fundraising quarter, and 16 of them trailed in cash on hand as of the end of June. One reason is that Democrats have been able to raise funds at a greater clip than past minority parties, in large part thanks to an unprecedented online fundraising network. Republicans are in better shape when it comes to outside money — Congressional Leadership Fund, the leading pro-GOP super PAC — had $73.3 million in cash on hand as of mid-July, its latest report with the Federal Election Commission.

Democrats also managed to chip away at another House GOP firewall: the maps under which the elections will be held. Nowhere is that more obvious than Pennsylvania: Republicans held a 13-to-5 advantage in the state’s congressional delegation at the beginning of 2017, but thanks to court-ordered redrawing of the districts, Democrats could capture a majority of the state’s House seats this November.

Then there’s the national environment. Trump — his average approval rating is down to 42 percent — and the GOP are near-toxic at a national level. Democrats’ lead on the generic ballot, on average, is in the high-single digits.

All the math — national and at the district level — boils down to this: Roughly half of the seats Democrats need to pick up are already leaning in their column.

Four seats currently in GOP hands are even classified as Safe or Likely Democratic — New Jersey’s 2nd District and Pennsylvania’s 5th, 6th and 17th districts. In New Jersey, national Republicans have cut loose the party’s nominee, Seth Grossman, over bigoted statements Grossman has made in the past. Pennsylvania’s 5th and 6th districts are poised to move into the Democratic column as a result of new, favorable district lines. In Pennsylvania’s 17th District, Democratic Rep. Conor Lamb has a consistent lead over GOP Rep. Keith Rothfus in a member-vs.-member contest.

Democrats have another 10 Republican seats leaning in their direction — their candidates are currently favored, though not assured of victory. Four GOP incumbents are at least slight underdogs: Barbara Comstock in Northern Virginia, Steve Knight in Southern California, Rod Blum in Eastern Iowa, Andy Barr in Kentucky. And Democrats are also favored to pick up seats where incumbents are retiring: Issa’s San Diego-area seat, Ros-Lehtinen’s Miami seat, Reichert’s Washington state seat, and a seat in southern North Carolina, where GOP Rep. Robert Pittenger lost his primary.

Of the two-dozen seats rated as Toss-Ups, 23 are currently held by Republicans; just one, the southern Minnesota seat Rep. Tim Walz is vacating to run for governor, is held by a Democrat.

Similarly, of the 27 seats rated as Lean Republican, 26 are currently held by the GOP. Republicans’ best pick-up opportunity: the Minnesota Iron Range seat being vacated by retiring Rep. Rick Nolan.

There are some self-inflicted wounds for Republicans on the House map. Blum, whose seat is rated Lean Democratic, is facing an investigation by the House ethics committee. Virginia Rep. Scott Taylor’s campaign is under investigation for allegedly forging signatures on the qualification papers of an independent candidate that could siphon votes away from Elaine Luria, the Democratic nominee.

Two GOP incumbents are under federal indictments: New York Rep. Chris Collins and California Rep. Duncan Hunter. Republicans are trying to replace Collins — who said he doesn’t want to run again, even though he is the GOP nominee — on the ballot, but Democrats have promised to fight his removal. Hunter, meanwhile, is full-steam-ahead on his reelection bid in what would have otherwise been a safe GOP district.

All is not lost for Republicans: Some of their incumbents are in better-than-expected shape, given the Democratic lean of their districts. Reps. Carlos Curbelo (Florida), Will Hurd (Texas) and John Katko (New York) are favored to win reelection.

Democrats will make gains on Election Day, and a “wave election” is possible — though not yet guaranteed. An improvement in the national environment — combined with GOP outside groups’ hand-to-hand combat in some of these districts — can still result in Republicans’ saving their House majority.

With two months to go until Election Day, the House is rated as Lean Democratic.

Senate

Republicans control 51 of the chamber’s 100 seats — or at least they will when former Sen. Jon Kyl takes the seat of late Arizona Sen. John McCain — and Democrats would need to net two seats in order to win back control. (Because Vice President Mike Pence breaks any ties in the chamber, a 50-50 Senate would still be controlled by Republicans.)

There are far more GOP opportunities on the board than chances for Democrats to pick up seats. Ten Democratic incumbents are seeking reelection in states Trump carried in 2016, while only Nevada Sen. Dean Heller is protecting a GOP-held seat in a Clinton state.

Of the Democrats, North Dakota Sen. Heidi Heitkamp is the most vulnerable. Trump carried the state by 36 percentage points in 2016, and Republicans are confident Rep. Kevin Cramer will defeat her this fall. North Dakota is rated as Lean Republican.

The GOP also likes its chances to topple Indiana Sen. Joe Donnelly and Missouri Sen. Claire McCaskill. Trump carried both states by just under 20 points. An NBC News/Marist poll out this week showed McCaskill deadlocked with her GOP challenger, state Attorney General Josh Hawley. Both races are rated as Toss Ups.

The Florida Senate race — which pits Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson against GOP Gov. Rick Scott — is also rated a Toss Up. As of early August, Scott had already spent $27.9 million on his campaign, and Democrats fear Nelson isn’t keeping pace. But Scott only won narrow victories in 2010 and 2014 — in great environments for Republicans — and the two candidates are still neck-and-neck, despite Scott’s early barrage.

Democrats are looking a little better in Montana and West Virginia — two other solid Trump states. In Montana, Sen. Jon Tester is ahead of state Auditor Matt Rosendale, though Republicans hope Trump can help peel voters away from Tester.

That’s also true in West Virginia, where the president is expected to travel frequently before November. But Sen. Joe Manchin leads state Attorney General Patrick Morrisey in the latest polling. Both Montana and West Virginia are rated as Lean Democratic.

Wisconsin Sen. Tammy Baldwin’s race against GOP state Sen. Leah Vukmir is rated as Lean Democratic, while three other Rust Belt Democrats are in the Likely Democratic column: Sens. Debbie Stabenow (Mich.), Bob Casey (Pa.) and Sherrod Brown (Ohio).

As for Democratic pick-up opportunities, two GOP-held seats are rated as Toss Ups: Arizona and Nevada. In Arizona — a state trending more Democratic over the past decade — the race between Democratic Rep. Kyrsten Sinema and GOP Rep. Martha McSally is likely to go down to the wire.

Meanwhile, in Nevada, Heller has held his own with Democratic Rep. Jacky Rosen thus far, polls show.

Two GOP-held seats are rated as Lean Republican: Tennessee, where popular former Gov. Phil Bredesen is running against GOP Rep. Marsha Blackburn, and Texas, with Democratic Rep. Beto O’Rourke’s high-profile challenge of GOP Sen. Ted Cruz.

Bredesen is running roughly even with Blackburn in Tennessee, but Trump carried the state by 26 points in 2016. In Texas, Cruz is fully engaged and taking O’Rourke seriously.

Reclaiming the Senate requires Democrats to win all of the Toss Ups — and hold Heitkamp’s North Dakota seat. Or the party could lose North Dakota, but win all the Toss Ups and either Tennessee or Texas. Either way, it’s a tightrope walk at this point in the cycle. The Senate is rated as Likely Republican.

Governors

Democrats are likely to make gains in the number of governorships the party controls, a key pillar of the party’s plan to have more influence in policy-making — and the redrawing of political maps after the 2020 Census.

Two states that currently have GOP governors are now rated as Likely Democratic: Illinois and New Mexico. In Illinois, incumbent GOP Gov. Bruce Rauner is trailing Democrat J.B. Pritzker by a wide margin.

The race to replace Michigan GOP Gov. Rick Snyder is rated Lean Democratic: Gretchen Whitmer is a modest favorite over GOP state Attorney General Bill Schuette.

Of the seven governors races in the Toss-Up column, all are in states currently helmed by Republicans: Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Maine, Nevada, Ohio and Wisconsin. In Florida, a Quinnipiac University poll out Tuesday gave Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum, the newly minted Democratic nominee, a slight advantage over Rep. Ron DeSantis.

In Wisconsin, two-term GOP Gov. Scott Walker is in the fight of his political life against state Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Evers.

Republicans are looking a little stronger in five other races the party currently holds, which are rated as Lean Republican: Arizona, Kansas, New Hampshire, Oklahoma and Vermont. The Alaska governor’s race is also rated as Lean Republican; the incumbent, Bill Walker, is an independent.

The GOP has a few pick-up opportunities from Democrats, though the Republican candidate is an underdog in all of them. Hawaii, Minnesota and Pennsylvania are rated Likely Democratic. Colorado, Connecticut, Oregon and Rhode Island are more winnable for Republicans, but each is rated Lean Democratic.

Two bright spots for Republicans: Massachusetts and Maryland. Massachusetts Gov. Charlie Baker’s reelection effort is rated as Safe Republican, even in the bright-blue commonwealth. Meanwhile, the race in Maryland is rated Likely Republican, with Gov. Larry Hogan holding a big lead in the polls over Democratic nominee Ben Jealous.

The topline: Democrats are favored to pick up three governorships from Republicans, while the GOP could erase the only independent from the map. But the seven Toss-Up states are all held by Republicans, and a Democratic wave could flip those into the blue column.