14 points over GOP

Poll: Congressional Democrats up 14 points over GOP on generic ballot

By CAITLIN OPRYSKO

A new poll out on Monday shows Democratic congressional candidates with a clear advantage over Republicans just two months out from election day.

In the Washington Post-ABC News poll, registered voters said they favored a generic Democratic candidate over a Republican one by a margin of 52 to 38 percent. The same poll showed Democrats with just a 4 percentage point advantage in April, and with a 12 point advantage in January.

The poll showed a slight enthusiasm gap in favor of Democrats, with 80 percent of self-identified Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents saying they are absolutely certain to vote compared to 74 percent of self-identified Republicans and Republican-leaning independents. Among Democrats who said they did not vote in the 2014 midterms, 63 percent said they were absolutely certain to vote in November.

The poll is the latest indicator of a potential "blue wave" of Democratic victories forecasted by many for November's midterm elections. Democrats will look to flip at least 23 seats in order retake control of the House of Representatives and loosen GOP control over the legislative branc. That effort is likely to be hampered by poll results showing 58 percent of respondents who said the economy was either "excellent" or "good," typically a favorable predictor for the ruling party.

The survey also found President Donald Trump playing a role in most voters’ midterm preferences. The survey found that six in 10 voters would prefer for Democrats control Congress to act “as a check on Trump” over a GOP-controlled Congress “to support Trump’s agenda.”

And it found that regardless of voters’ opinions of the president, a majority, 59 percent, consider it either extremely or very important to back a candidate that shares their same views.

The poll was conducted from Aug. 26-29 among a national random sample of 1,003 adults including 879 registered voters. The sample of registered voters has an error margin of plus or minus 4 percentage points.