Russia more likely to meddle

Voters believe Russia more likely to meddle for GOP in midterms than Democrats

By STEVEN SHEPARD

President Donald Trump says he’s “very concerned” that Russia will meddle in this year’s midterm elections — as part of an effort to help Democratic candidates.

But a new POLITICO/Morning Consult poll shows very few voters agree. While a majority in the poll think Russia will try to influence the election — a combined 52 percent say it’s at least somewhat likely — just 13 percent say Russia would be more likely to try to help Democrats win.

Nearly four times as many voters, 47 percent, say Russia would be more likely to try to help Republicans.

The poll was in the field July 19-23, after Trump’s meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Finland. But it was conducted before Trump floated the possibility that Russia — which U.S. officials have concluded attempted to aid Trump’s election in 2016 — would work to aid candidates from the Democratic Party this fall.

“I’m very concerned that Russia will be fighting very hard to have an impact on the upcoming [e]lection,” Trump tweeted Tuesday. “Based on the fact that no [p]resident has been tougher on Russia than me, they will be pushing very hard for the Democrats. They definitely don’t want Trump!”

The survey asked about Russian attempts to influence election outcomes — in 2016, and in the next two elections — though it didn't explore the specific ways in which individuals affiliated with the Russian government could interfere.

Federal prosecutors working for Robert Mueller, the special counsel, earlier this month filed charges against 12 Russians allegedly involved with hacking Democratic Party materials and working to disseminate them. That effort was apparently designed to harm Democratic candidates, though U.S. officials stress that attempted hacks of elections administrators did not result in altering actual vote tabulations.

While Putin has denied Russia was involved, he acknowledged in the summit press conference last week that he wanted Trump to defeat Hillary Clinton.

As for the next presidential election in 2020, the numbers are similar: 53 percent of voters say it’s at least somewhat likely Russia will try to influence the race, and far more voters say they would get involved to help Trump (47 percent) than the president’s opponents (12 percent).

Trump came under fire last week after he offered little criticism of Putin during a joint press conference with the Russian leader following their meeting and appeared to give equal weight to Putin’s denials that his government meddled in the 2016 election as the U.S. government’s assertion that Russians were involved. The next day, Trump attempted to backtrack, saying he misspoke at the press conference.

Asked whether Russia influenced the results of the last presidential election, more voters say Russia did influence the results (42 percent) as say it didn’t (35 percent), the poll shows. But nearly a quarter of voters, 23 percent, have no opinion.

Asked whether Russia tried to influence the election, however, a 56 percent majority says it did. Only 21 percent of voters believe Russia didn’t try to influence the results of the 2016 election.

Voters, overall, are divided on the Trump-Putin summit: 37 percent describe it as a success, while 36 percent say it wasn’t successful.

Trump’s marks for the summit are slightly lower: Just 26 percent of voters say it gave them a more favorable view of Trump, compared to 34 percent who said it gave them a less favorable view.

Only a quarter of voters, 25 percent, say they have a lot of confidence in Trump to handle threats posed by Russia. Another 18 percent say they have some confidence, while a combined 45 percent don’t have much confidence or any confidence at all in the president when it comes to Russia.

Tyler Sinclair, Morning Consult's managing director, said voters' trust in Trump when it comes to Russia has declined — especially among the president’s electoral base.

“GOP confidence in the president to manage Russian aggression has dropped significantly amid contradictory messages from the White House following the Helsinki summit,” said Sinclair. “Two weeks ago, 58 percent of Republicans said they had a lot of confidence in Trump’s ability to handle those threats, compared to 49 percent who said the same today.”

Despite that, the meeting hasn’t had an immediate effect on Trump’s overall job rating. Forty-five percent of voters approve of Trump’s job performance, virtually unchanged from last week’s 44 percent. A slight majority, 51 percent, disapprove.

The POLITICO/Morning Consult poll surveyed 1,996 registered voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points.