Hard sell to the heartland

Trump takes his hard sell to the heartland

The trade war isn’t over but the president has already declared victory.

By CHRISTOPHER CADELAGO, NATASHA KORECKI and ANDREW RESTUCCIA

Donald Trump traveled to the American heartland to greet workers Thursday, but he never left familiar territory — portraying another policy climb-down as a victory.

Trump touched down here amid rising concerns over the economic impact of several rounds of tariffs on the farmers and rural voters who make up his political base, and immediately went into sales mode.

There was no talk of the administration’s pledge Tuesday to provide $12 billion in relief aid to farmers hit by the trade war — a trade war of his choosing. Nor was there an acknowledgment of the deep anxiety surrounding the impact of his trade policies on the local economy. What voters got instead was a hard sell about a newly announced agreement with Europe that would serve as a potential boon to the Midwest agricultural economy.

The moment was trademark Trump: Claim victory for digging out of a precarious spot primarily created by his own remarks and policies.

“We just opened up Europe for you farmers. You’re not going to be too angry with Trump, I can tell you,” the president said at Northeast Iowa Community College, pulling out green “Make Our Farmers Great Again” hats that he later tossed into the crowd. “It’s going to be a really great thing for our farmers because you just got yourself one big market that essentially… never really existed.”

Later, in a speech in southern Illinois, Trump tore into his doubters — “media critics [and] lobbyists that don’t want us to defend American jobs” — when talking up his administration’s manufacturing bona fides.

“I say to those people that we’re not starting a trade war. We’ve been in a trade war for many years and we’ve lost for many years,” Trump added. “But over the last 1-1/2 years, we’re winning. We’re back and we’re winning and winning bigger than anyone understands.”

Trump’s defenders hailed the moment as a step toward leveling unfair trade deficits, a centerpiece of his 2016 campaign they admit won’t come without short-term economic pain.

Yet the abrupt change in tack closely mirrored a series of recent political and policy walk-backs. Trump, only two weeks before his joint announcement with European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker on the framework of an agreement to eliminate tariffs and barriers on trade, had rattled trans-Atlantic relations by dismissing European allies as foes.

He derided NATO over its lack of adequate defense spending, again drawing international ire, only to take credit for a funding pledge that was already in the works — and then asking for more.

He backtracked on his comments on Russian interference in the 2016 America election, claimed he “didn’t like the sight, or the feeling, of families being separated” despite instituting that policy and even pivoted to say British Prime Minister Theresa May was doing a “fantastic job” after first publicly second-guessing her on her home soil.

In every case, he took a victory lap.

White House aides and some outside advisers have been on edge for months about Trump’s aggressive trade policies, fearing fallout in this year’s midterm elections. Aides organized regular meetings at the White House between Trump and agriculture-state lawmakers who have underscored their concerns.

In the White House, Trump’s agreement with Juncker was greeted with a sense of relief, despite the deal’s lack of details, according to a person close to the president. It is seen internally as a sign that Trump — who had long rejected his advisers’ warnings — is starting to come around on recognizing the impact of his trade policies.

“For people that might have had doubts, yesterday went a long way to assuage the situation,” a Republican close to the White House told POLITICO.

As the president set off for his Midwest swing, with farmers feeling the financial pinch, the White House deployed Cabinet members to defend Trump’s assertive trade approach, joining with outside GOP allies in pointing to the Juncker announcement and billions in farm aid relief, which are set to go out this fall.

They also pushed back on characterizations of the $12 billion relief plan as a “bailout,” given the term’s unpopularity with the Trump base.

Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin, speaking with reporters in Washington, dismissed the notion as “ridiculous.”

“It’s not a bailout,” he said. “What we are doing is, to the extent that other countries unfairly and illegally target our farmers, we will stand up and fight for them.

As Trump descended on Dubuque, the White House marched out Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross, traveling on Air Force One with Trump, to cast the European Union discussion as “a real vindication that the president’s trade policy is starting to work.”

“The more substantive thing is it’s the right direction,” Ross said, seemingly dialing back his own statement from moments before. “Because if we can roll out that whole formula to the rest of the world, our trade deficit will go down. We believe that American companies, and especially American farmers, can compete anywhere if they have a level playing field.”

In hopes of defining the narrative, the White House also blasted out early in the day a list of supportive quotes from agriculture associations and federal and state officials under the subject line: “SUPPORT FOR PRESIDENT DONALD J. TRUMP’S PLAN TO PROTECT AMERICAN FARMERS FROM UNJUSTIFIED TRADE RETALIATION.” Among those quoted was Rep. Kevin Cramer, the Republican challenging Democratic Sen. Heidi Heitkamp in North Dakota, a state where tariffs loom large.

Later Thursday, the press office sent out a USA Today op-ed by Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue arguing that “the Trump administration’s action to stand by our agricultural producers is a clear message that China cannot bully farmers to coerce the United States to cave in.”

All of it framed Trump’s visit to Iowa, where the president painted a glowing picture of the economy, pointing to tax cuts, Iowa’s low unemployment and to deregulation aimed to benefit businesses. Trump mentioned trade, but he steered clear of the most controversial topic there: the Trump- imposed tariffs that have brought retaliatory tariffs and sent soybean, corn and pork markets into disarray, with farmers seeing double-digit drop in profits.

Trump worked to boost the fortunes of endangered GOP House incumbent Rod Blum and Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds, both of whom are facing formidable challenges in November. Trump initially fumbled the moment, though, referring to Blum as “Matt,” but later used his correct name.

Trump’s predicament has been made easier by a Republican establishment that is loathe to second-guess his trade policies. Even as farmers here express growing uneasiness over Trump’s policies, Blum brazenly embraced them. One reason — his district includes a segment of dairy farmers who have long sought reforms to Canadian tariffs.

“Thank you for having the political courage to renegotiate these trade deals, which quite frankly, are not good for the United States,” Blum told the president. “You’ve taken some heat for them in the short-term. In the long-run, the farmers, the manufacturers, the employers are all going to be better off.”

Still, Blum made a point of noting he had sought a deadline from the administration on its negotiations with Mexico, referring to a bet he made on Air Force One with Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross that the U.S. could close a deal with Mexico within 90 days.

“I fully plan on buying you a steak dinner,” Blum told Ross.

Reynolds — who must appeal to a statewide electorate while her well-financed Democratic opponent, Fred Hubbell, attacks her on being too weak on trade — treaded far more carefully, avoiding any talk of trade or tariffs.

GOP Chair Jeff Kaufmann said while different members of the party will calibrate their take on Trump, the party as a whole still fully backed him.

“This is the biggest contest he’s had on the world stage. You think Donald Trump — love him or not love him — you don’t think he’s going to do everything humanly in his power to bring this thing home?” Kaufmann said. “This could be his legacy.”

The political dynamics are decidedly different in Illinois, a blue state with an endangered Republican governor — Bruce Rauner — who didn’t even attend the president’s event in his state. There, Trump headed to deep red southern part of Illinois, where he celebrated the reopening of a steel mill in Republican Rep. Mike Bost’s district. The mill, Granite City Works, is a beneficiary of the president’s tariff war.

Examples like that are why Trump and his defenders continue to hold up trade as a winning issue for him, contending it combines his passion for the subject with an understanding of how the global imbalances affect his loyal followers.

Campaign allies point to the president’s consistent messaging and belief that his approach will bring trading partners to the table — while not focusing on more immediate dangers.

“I think what [Trump] has said on Twitter and in speeches pretty much sums it up,” said Brian O Walsh, president of the pro-Trump group America First Action. “We are trying to fix a broken trade system. If successful, in the long term we will all benefit. In the short term, adversaries are trying to hurt me by hurting you, but I’ve got your back.’”

Trump officials, who closely monitor local news reports for fallout from the trade gambit, pointed to a recent TV news story of a North Carolina soybean farmer. Reacting to the news of the $12 billion relief plan, the farmer suggests that Trump is to blame for the current trade quandary. But he also concludes that there can’t be real change without some struggle.

One former Trump campaign official summarized the sentiment: “I would rather sacrifice now than the rest of my life.”