Walker trailing Democrat

Poll shows Walker trailing Democrat by double-digits in Wisconsin

By DANIEL STRAUSS and JAMES ARKIN

A new poll from NBC News and Marist College shows Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker trailing a Democratic challenger by double-digits, part of a raft of rough results for Republicans across three Midwestern states.

The poll showed Wisconsin state education superintendent Tony Evers, the Democratic primary front-runner, taking 54 percent to Walker's 41 percent in a head-to-head matchup. Walker has warned for months that Republicans need to be active and vigilant as he runs for a third term, with Democrats winning a series of down-ballot elections in Wisconsin earlier this year.

But Democrats have had to grapple with a crowded Democratic primary field that at one point included more than a dozen candidates, but which has shrunk to eight ahead of the Aug. 14 primary. Evers has consistently polled at the front of the Democratic field.

The results are sharply more negative for Walker than the most recent Marquette University poll of the governor’s race in June, which showed Walker narrowly ahead of Evers, 48 percent to 44 percent.

NBC and Marist also surveyed the governor's races in Michigan and Minnesota, with the results showing Democrats in commanding positions in both open races.

In Michigan, Democrat Gretchen Whitmer, the front-runner in her party's gubernatorial primary, led Republican primary front-runner Bill Schuette in a general election matchup, 47 percent to 38 percent.

In Minnesota, former Republican Gov. Tim Pawlenty trails Democrats Lori Swanson and Tim Walz, the two top candidates in their primary. The poll shows both Democrats getting 51 percent support to Pawlenty's 40 percent.

Democrats also performed well on the Senate ballot in all three states polled. In Wisconsin, incumbent Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin held a substantial lead over both potential Republican challengers. She led businessman Kevin Nicholson by 15 percentage points among registered voters, and led state Sen. Leah Vukmir by 17 percentage points.

Nicholson and Vukmir were neck and neck in the Republican primary, according to the poll, which echoed recent findings from Marquette University and other polling outfits.

In the Michigan Senate race, incumbent Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow topped both potential Republicans challengers by double-digits. Stabenow led John James by 18 percentage points, and led Sandy Pensler by 15 percentage points.

And in the Minnesota race, Democratic Sen. Tina Smith — who replaced former Sen. Al Franken in January — led Republican Karin Housley 49 percent to 35 percent.

In Wisconsin, the poll surveyed 906 registered voters. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points for the general election. In Minnesota, the poll surveyed 876 voters and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. In Michigan, the poll surveyed 886 registered voters and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points.