Republicans hit rock bottom

California Republicans hit rock bottom

New figures show the once-proud state GOP has been relegated to third-party status.

By CARLA MARINUCCI

The state that spawned the "Reagan Revolution’’ and Richard M. Nixon just experienced a watershed moment — the California Republican Party was officially relegated to third-party status.

In the culmination of the withered state GOP’s long slide toward near-political irrelevance here, new voter registration data released this week show the once-robust party trails behind both Democrats and “no party preference” in the nation's most populous state. The California Republican Party is now outnumbered by independent voters by 73,000, according to Political Data Inc., which tabulates voter file data from county registrars.

The new figures come as the state looms large in the national battle for the House, with a handful of Republican-held seats poised to play a pivotal role in November.

Among California’s 19 million registered voters, the latest statistics — as of 15 days before the June 5 primary — show that Democrats now make up 8.4 million or 44.6 percent of the electorate.

That compares with 4,844,803 no-party-preference voters, or 25.5 percent of the state’s voters and 4,771,984 Republicans, who both make up about 25.1 percent. The California Secretary of State’s office is expected to release its own official count later this week.

A decade after Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger — the last elected GOP statewide official — was lambasted for warning his fellow Republicans that their party was “dying at the box office," the new numbers underscore the collapse of the GOP in California. The ranks of Republican voters have disintegrated by 10 percentage points since 1998, when they made up 35 percent of the voter rolls.

Democratic numbers have also declined, though not nearly as dramatically — the party made up 46.8 percent of the voter rolls a decade ago. By contrast, the percentage of “no party preference” voters in the state has more than doubled in the past two decades, the latest data showed.

Political analyst Carson Bruno, now a dean at Pepperdine University, cautioned on Twitter that it’s still unclear “how much of the NPP gain is due to the implementation of automatic voter registration,’’ which auto-registers new voters as NPP and requires them to select a party later.

And Matt Fleming, spokesman for the California Republican Party, downplayed the development.

“This isn’t surprising. Voters have been becoming more and more independent for years,” he said in an email statement. “But no party preference doesn't mean voters are becoming Democrats, and we will continue to reach out to all voters. The rise in NPP suggests that voters are fed up with the status quo in California, which, by any objective measure, is Democrat control of Sacramento.”

Hoover Institution fellow Bill Whalen, an adviser to former Republican Gov. Pete Wilson, says GOP’s new third-party status can no longer be blamed on the passage of Prop. 187, the 1994 anti-illegal immigration ballot measure which had Wilson’s support and has long been tagged as a catalyst in the GOP free fall in California.

“You can only blame 187 for so long,’’ he said, adding that legions of new voters have since registered NPP as the viability of the GOP brand has collapsed in the state.

“Times change and states change. There was the time when Texas was the home of Lyndon Johnson and Sam Rayburn,’’ Whalen noted.

Democrats including Eric Bauman, chair of the California Democratic Party, crowed about the new development, tweeting that “Republicans finally succumb to independents in California — they now trail by 76,000 — Democrats hold steady, with slight increase in registration. #BigBlueWave.”

Former California first lady Maria Shriver — married to Schwarzenegger — tweeted a variation of the old adage, “As California goes, so goes the nation.” But Shriver, a member of the Kennedy family who announced her move to become an independent voter years ago, added: "This rise (of independent voters) in our state should concern both parties — not just Republicans."

Republicans still stand to play an outsized role in next week’s primary despite the registration erosion. GOP voters typically vote at higher rates in nonpresidential year primary elections than Democrats.

Because Republicans vote at higher rates, GOP turnout is expected to reach about 30 percent to 32 percent of the electorate next week, with Republicans and independents who lean Republican making up about 38 percent or 39 percent of the vote, said PDI’s Paul Mitchell.

“[The state GOP’s decline in registration numbers] means a lot to people who are naval gazing about the future of political parties in California. But it doesn’t mean as much in terms of actual elections,” Mitchell said.

In addition, many of the people registering as independents are younger, nonwhite voters — not voters who would have registered Republican, anyway.

“It’s not as if the independents are picking the pockets of the Republican Party,” Mitchell said. “It’s really a loss for both parties in terms of their raw numbers.”

Already, there are signs the disintegration of the Republican Party could fuel the rise of high-profile independent candidates. For the first time, the GOP failed to field a single candidate for a major statewide race — the office of insurance commissioner.

Steve Poizner, the GOP’s 2010 gubernatorial nominee and a former state insurance commissioner, declared himself a candidate in the race — but as an independent. The tech magnate — who served as a finance chair for the presidential campaign of Ohio Gov. John Kasich in 2016 — now has a commanding lead over the rest of the field, which includes two major Democrats, state Sen. Ricardo Lara and Southern California doctor Asif Mahmood.

Poizner, in making the move to become a “no party preference” voter and to abandon the GOP, said he believes voters are weary of partisan infighting and simply want candidates who can tackle their concerns.

Poizner’s bid will be closely watched come November — and it may eventually influence the strategy of others like San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer, who’s viewed as one of the only viable potential statewide candidates who identifies as Republican.

Whalen points to Republican gubernatorial candidate John Cox, who appears poised in recent polls to end up as one of the “top two” finalists — along with Democrat Gavin Newsom — in next Tuesday’s primary, as another candidate to watch.

As long as he has an "R" after his name on the ballot, Cox’s victory may be “the classic short-term gain, long-term pain,’’ said Whalen. “Cox will be running in November — and his running mate is Donald Trump."

"He will be joined to the hip by Democrats with someone who has a 30 percent approval rating in California,'' he said. "We’ve seen this movie before.”