NOT prepared for a flu epidemic

The world is NOT prepared for a flu epidemic, Bill Gates warns amid recent surge in antibiotic-resistant bugs

By Ben Spencer

Health organisations are unprepared for a major flu pandemic, Bill Gates warned yesterday.

The billionaire philanthropist said the world was 'a bit vulnerable right now' – and would probably remain so for at least a decade.

Mr Gates said the Ebola and Zika virus outbreaks which have struck the globe in the past three years exposed serious weaknesses in our ability to swiftly tackle health emergencies.

And a major flu pandemic - like the 1918 outbreak which killed 250,000 people in Britain and 50million around the world - would seriously test the world's ability to react.

Dame Sally Davies, England's chief medical officer, said the NHS had just completed a practice drill for such a pandemic - but admitted the country's preparedness could only be rated at 'seven or eight' out of ten.

Mr Gates, whose foundation has pumped billions of pounds into health programmes around the world, said red tape risked slowing down the response to health emergencies.

'I cross my fingers all the time that some epidemic like a big flu doesn't come along in the next ten years,' he said.

'I do think we'll have much better medical tools, much better response, but we are a bit vulnerable right now if something that spread very quickly, like say a flu that was quite fatal.

'That would be a tragedy, and new approaches should allow us to reduce that risk a lot.'

He added: 'When we've seen Ebola or even now Zika, we realise we still haven't done enough.

'Our ability to create new drugs and vaccines quickly where we have an emerging disease, our emergency response system where we get people in and try and stop these epidemics - we don't have a strong enough system.

'There is a lot of discussion right about how do we respond in an emergency, and do we make sure that the regulatory, liability and organisational boundaries do not slow us down.'

The World Health Organisation was severely criticised over its response to the Ebola crisis, which killed more than 11,000 people in West Africa after it struck in December 2013.

An independent panel, led by British scientists, highlighted 'failures in both technical judgment and political leadership' within the WHO during the outbreak, and said it waited too long before declaring a major emergency.

Mr Gates said it was the responsibility of wealthy nations such as the UK and US to take a lead.
'If we don't get involved these epidemics will come into our countries,' he said.

'So it's not just the humanitarian goal here, it's strong self-interest that we want global health security.'

Dame Sally said: 'I agree. We have just been practicing for a nasty flu in this country, but for all that we practice a lot, we realise we need to do more.'

Asked how she rated the NHS preparation for such an emergency, out of ten, she said: 'The NHS is pretty well prepared, so I would probably put it at seven or eight.

'But it's not just the NHS, the NHS looks after sick patients, it's how would our social care system cope with people who weren't ill enough to be in hospital but need extra support?

'It's how would our economy cope if a large proportion are too ill to work where we have a just-in-time ordering policy for delivery of food, petrol, whatever?

'And if you think about the issues that could happen here if we had a recurrence of the 1918 type flu, then what would it be like in middle and low income countries where they don't have the health systems to look after the patients?'

Dame Sally added: 'We are very well prepared with stockpiles and an agreement to purchase flu vaccine the minute we have a pandemic.

'But remember it would still take three months to get the right vaccine and another three months to produce enough vaccine to start putting it into people.

'So from the start of a flu pandemic it would take at least six months to get a vaccine.'