Trump's convention

GOP insiders dreading Trump's convention

'The general feeling is one of the impending train wreck on the tracks,' said an Iowa Republican. 'You know it will be a spectacular explosion, but you just can't avert your eyes.'

By Steven Shepard

Forget about the balloons, the expressions of party unity and the quadrennial celebration of partisan pride. GOP insiders are dreading the Republican convention in Cleveland this week.

That’s according to The POLITICO Caucus — a panel of activists, strategists and operatives in 11 key battleground states. Nearly two-thirds of Republican insiders, 65 percent, said they are less excited about this year’s convention — which a number of top Republicans are avoiding — than previous editions.

Republican insiders are far less excited about their party’s convention than their Democratic counterparts: Roughly a quarter of Democrats, 27 percent, said they are less excited about their convention in Philadelphia next week.

“I'm an Ohioan. I was excited for our state to welcome the RNC. Now it has turned into a potentially violent spectacle that the leaders of our party are avoiding,” said one Ohio Republican — who, like all insiders, completed the survey anonymously. “I'm dreading it, and I'm dreading the [news] stories.”

Even those Republicans who think Donald Trump is well-positioned to win in November lamented the fact a number of top GOP officials are declining to attend the convention.

“It would be great if Republicans could find a way to bury the hatchet and come together,” said a Michigan Republican. “The absence of so many of our great leaders is frustrating and disappointing.”

Only 17 percent of GOP insiders said they are more excited about this year’s convention than in past years — though many of their comments were mordant. Numerous insiders compared the convention to a train wreck or car accident.

“Excited in the way one can’t stop staring at a train wreck,” said a Pennsylvania Republican who is “more excited” about Cleveland. “It's a mixture of disgust and fascination.”

“A NASCAR race is always more exciting the more wrecks you have,” added a Nevada Republican.

But that doesn’t mean the insiders think Trump will bomb when the presumptive nominee addresses the convention on Thursday night. Sixty-four percent of GOP insiders expect him “to make an effective case for his candidacy” in the speech, while 36 percent believe his speech won’t be effective.

“I think Trump's new campaign manager has talked some sense into him and he realizes now that the same kind of rhetoric that he used during the primaries, which earned him hundreds of thousands of dollars of free earned media time and boosted his candidacy, will no longer work,” a Colorado Republican said. “He needs to be seen now as ‘presidential,’ and he has certainly been doing that.”

“Trump will read a decent speech,” an Iowa Republican added. “He will give an adequate delivery. He will not lash out from the podium. He will not make any grave errors. He will win back some of the GOP base as they resign themselves to the binary choice of Trump vs. Hillary, but I'd be surprised if he makes any significant inroads with undecided voters.”

One Virginia Republican gave credit to some of Trump’s new campaign hires, who were brought on to bring a new level of professionalism to the real-estate mogul’s operation.

“Finally, Trump has surrounded himself with a team that knows that selling a candidacy — a vision for the country — is different than selling wine or a golf course,” the Republican said.

But not all Republicans are as optimistic about Trump’s speech.

“If they put Trump behind the podium with a teleprompter, we'll get that goofy, chopped-up speech where he tries to inject some of his Trumpisms into a canned speech. It comes off badly,” said a Wisconsin Republican. “If they let him go off the cuff, that could be fun! Either way, he won’t make an effective case. He'll beat up on Clinton and use his lines about building a wall, barring Muslims, hijacking trade deals and raising tariffs — so what’s new that makes a compelling case to 65 percent of the people who simply don’t like him? Nothing.”

That connects with a consistent theme in the Caucus surveys: the number of Republican insiders who aren’t actively rooting for Trump to succeed.

“Conventions are usually about being excited for your party’s nominee,” an Ohio Republican said. “This one is about how to help the other people you care about while you have the top of the ticket embarrassing you.”

“The general feeling is one of the impending train wreck on the tracks,” an Iowa Republican added. “You know it will be a spectacular explosion, but you just can’t avert your eyes … but you really wish it wouldn’t happen.”

That dynamic has left some Republicans shrinking from what is usually a four-day display of party unity.

“I am more excited about my oral surgery this fall than I am about this convention,” one New Hampshire Republican said.

Added another: “I would rather watch my washing machine spin.”