On tap

On tap in the House: Guns, terrorism and Trump

As Democrats push for a vote on 'No fly, no buy,' Paul Ryan is in a delicate spot.

By John Bresnahan

With just 10 days to go until Congress’ long summer recess — and less than two weeks before the GOP convention in Cleveland kicks off — the House Republican agenda is all about guns, terrorism and Donald Trump.

The chamber will vote this week on an “anti-terrorism” package that includes a gun-control proposal similar to that offered by Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) and already rejected by the Senate.

It’s the GOP response to the Democrats’ push for new efforts to reduce gun violence in the wake of the June 12 Orlando shooting, which left 49 people dead and 53 wounded. Republicans see Orlando as a terrorist attack inspired by the Islamic State and other terrorist groups, and they are demanding far more action by the White House to defeat these networks. Yet Democrats see Orlando as a symptom of the National Rifle Association’s hammerlock on Capitol Hill and the GOP, and they’re determined to try to break it by enacting new gun-control laws.

The gulf between the two parties is huge — it will only widen in coming days. The House could end up voting on one or more gun bills that have already failed in the Senate, meaning all the dramatics and rhetoric that will take place this week are little more than a carnival show designed to rile up base voters.

The Cornyn proposal is backed by the NRA and most Senate Republicans. House Democrats adamantly oppose the Republican plan, which they see an empty political ploy. Democrats continue to demand a vote on their own version of the “no fly, no buy” gun measure, as well as enhanced background checks for all gun sales. Republican leaders have firmly rejected those two initiatives.

Democrats staged a raucous “sit-in” on the House floor late last month, demanding votes on their two bills. Some Democrats want to repeat that demonstration, though House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) and other senior Democrats have not endorsed such a move.

Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) was invited by Democrats to address their caucus, a highly unusual offer that he declined.

Ryan, however, will meet privately on Tuesday night with Democratic Reps. John Lewis of Georgia and John Larson of Connecticut, who led the floor sit-in. Lewis, a civil rights movement hero, is held in great esteem by lawmakers on both sides of the aisle. But he may face an impossible task in getting Ryan to agree to allow Democrats any more than a cursory vote on their proposals.

“Democrats asked Speaker Ryan to address the full Democrat caucus,” said Ryan spokeswoman AshLee Strong. “He looks forward to meeting with Congressmen Lewis and Larson to discuss the important action the House will take to prevent terrorist attacks.”

Ryan faces a delicate balancing act on guns. Gun violence and mass shootings are occurring at an alarming rate across the country and the American public favors some kind of action, according to recent polls. But the NRA and gun-rights supporters are critical factions within the GOP base, and they hold great sway with Ryan’s rank-and-file members. Ryan and other top Republicans know that can’t do anything that would alienate these voters only 125 days out from the November elections.

The Cornyn proposal would require the Justice Department to go to court to prove “probable cause” that a person is involved in terrorism before blocking a gun purchase. Law enforcement agencies would have 72 hours to try to stop the sale. Pelosi has dismissed the Cornyn plan as a “toothless NRA bill that will do nothing to keep our communities safe.”

Democrats countered with a proposal that would bar anyone on the federal no-fly list from buying a gun, but Republicans and the NRA say it goes too far. The Senate rejected that plan as well.

GOP and Democratic leadership aides have been holding talks on how Democrats’ demand for a gun vote can be addressed. Democrats want more than a “motion to recommit,” a parliamentary maneuver, on their proposals. Yet Ryan and other top Republican leaders don’t want to be seen as giving in to the Democratic protest, believing it will fuel more such moves.

The Cornyn proposal is part of a broader anti-terrorism package assembled by House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.). The GOP legislation directs the Homeland Security Department to create an office to counter “radicalization” of U.S. citizens by ISIL and other terrorist groups by developing a “counter-message” program. The bill requires DHS to provide Congress a “comprehensive” plan to “counter radical Islamist terrorism in the United States” within 90 days of enactment. In addition, lawmakers would be told how DHS and other federal agencies would assist state and local authorities in this effort.

The GOP package also calls for an annual review of terrorist “watch lists” kept by the FBI and other federal agencies.

“In the wake of the Orlando attack, we must step up our efforts to combat the radicalization and recruitment of citizens by ISIS,” McCarthy said in a statement on Friday. The bill, he added, “will provide more tools and resources to combat the spread of dangerous radical Islamist ideology and help our law enforcement agencies prevent future attacks on our soil. It will also provide a process for individuals being investigated as known or suspected terrorists who attempt to buy a gun to be flagged, delayed — and if the burden of proof is satisfied — denied their purchase.”

If the showdown over guns and terrorism isn’t theatrical enough, on Thursday presumptive GOP presidential nominee Donald Trump will be in Washington to meet with the House Republican Conference. It’s the first face-to-face session between Trump and rank-and-file Republicans.

Ryan and Trump have repeatedly butted heads over issues like Trump’s call for a ban on Muslim immigration, and his attacks on the ethnic heritage of a federal judge hearing a Trump University lawsuit. Ryan publicly called out Trump over these issues, and the interaction between the two will be watched closely by everyone on the Hill, members and the media alike.

So far Trump has said very little in encounters with House and Senate Republicans, laying on the charm in a bid to win over doubters and critics. GOP leaders privately expect to see much the same this week.

“I think you’re going to see [Trump] in listening mode,” said a top House Republican, who asked to speak anonymously. “I think he’s going to try to hear out members.”

Trump, though, could face some tough questions from rank-and-file lawmakers on what has so far been a disastrous start to the general election campaign for the businessman-turned-politician. While Republicans are unlikely to lose the House, Democrats could make serious inroads into the GOP majority if Trump doesn’t turn around his campaign.

And Republicans will also look for signs of whom Trump might tap to be his vice-presidential pick. Several Republican senators have been mentioned as potential running mates, and, with the selection expected soon, GOP lawmakers may ask to hear the real-estate tycoon’s thinking.

Also on the political front this week, Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) will address the House Democratic Caucus. Sanders has yet to endorse Hillary Clinton for president, and Democrats are eager to hear how he will help unify the party at the upcoming convention in Philadelphia.