Obama, Warren will outshine...

Insiders: Obama, Warren will outshine Clinton in Philly

'This is Obama's party. He'll light the place up and pass the torch of a united party, then we'll all pray she doesn't screw it up between now and November,' said a Florida Democrat.

By Steven Shepard

Democrats have low expectations for Hillary Clinton's acceptance speech this week: She rates behind President Barack Obama and Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren when it comes to the most anticipated Democratic convention speeches.

A survey of The POLITICO Caucus — a panel of activists, strategists and operatives in 11 key battleground states — finds that, despite Clinton’s imminent nomination for president, Democratic insiders think Obama and Warren will make the more effective case for their party in speeches at the Wells Fargo Center this week.

Asked who would deliver the most effective address, nearly half of Democratic insiders, 49 percent, said Obama. Another 26 percent picked Warren.

Just 10 percent chose Clinton — the same percentage that said her husband would make the most effective case for the party.

“This is Obama's party,” said a Florida Democrat, who, like all insiders, completed the survey anonymously. “He'll light the place up and pass the torch of a united party, then we'll all pray she doesn't screw it up between now and November.”

“He will be in legacy-burnishing mode and will be spectacular,” a New Hampshire Democrat said, referring to the president. “Wish he could serve another term.”

Added a Nevada Democrat: “His tenure is almost come to an end, and he has been one of the best presidents in history. There will be tears, joy and a sense of accomplishment. It will be another historic moment.”

A number of Democratic insiders said Obama could serve as a powerful validator for Hillary Clinton — in the same way Bill Clinton made a compelling argument for Obama’s reelection at the convention in Charlotte four years ago.

“Bill did it for Barack,” an Iowa Democrat said. “Now it’s Barack's turn to return the favor.”

Warren, the first-term Massachusetts senator, was praised for her ability to coalesce an argument that speaks to middle-class anxiety — better than Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, according to many insiders.

“Warren, like Sanders, has a way of explaining the bread and butter issues of the today,” a North Carolina Democrat said. “Warren is great at making the case as to why Trump should not be the next president.”

Added a Pennsylvania Democrat: “Bernie's speech will be like going to a Springsteen concert. Everyone knows all the words and will be singing along with him. But Elizabeth Warren will package those messages in a new fashion and make sure Hillary realizes she made a mistake in her VP choice and having people say that if only it would have been her instead of Bernie.”

Most of the Democrats who expected Hillary Clinton would be the best speaker said they chose her because the stakes are enormous for her speech.

“She has to be” the most effective, a North Carolina Democrat said. “She is the standard bearer. The others will be great, but Hillary has to be better.”

That was echoed by a Colorado Democrat: “She has to be; it is her show.”

As for Clinton’s husband, a handful of insiders said the former president can make an emotional case for his wife unlike any of the other speakers.

“As always, Bill Clinton will steal the show — but most importantly will make the most important case of all — for his wife,” a Wisconsin Democrat said. “It’s up to him to get it done for her at the convention.”

According to Caucus insiders, Hillary Clinton made a smart choice in picking Kaine to join her ticket on Friday, selecting a running mate with a solid record who will bring assets to the campaign and is capable of serving as commander-in-chief.

In a special survey conducted in the hours after the Clinton campaign made the Kaine pick official, the vast majority of Democratic insiders, 86 percent, said Clinton made a smart pick. Just 14 percent said she should have chosen someone else.

A majority of GOP insiders agreed: 62 percent said Kaine was a smart choice, while 38 percent thought she should have tapped someone else.

Most Democrats see Kaine as a candidate with considerable and diverse experience who can appeal to both Democrats and independents, or Republicans defecting from the Donald Trump-Mike Pence ticket. And few, just 10 percent, thought Kaine would have trouble motivating more liberal voters behind Clinton’s candidacy.

“He is the most qualified to take over in the event something happens to the president,” said one Florida Democrat, who, like all respondents, completed the survey anonymously. “Additionally, while left of center, he is not so radical to frighten moderates and works well across the party lines as does Hillary.”

“Tim Kaine is ready to be president tomorrow; that is what really matters,” a New Hampshire Democrat added. “After that it is who she is comfortable with and who will be great partner in running the country. Joe Biden is a perfect model, and Tim Kaine is Hillary's Joe Biden.”

A number of Democratic insiders also touted their own personal experiences with Kaine. One New Hampshire Democrat called Kaine “truly one of the nicest people on earth.”

“I would have loved to see a young Latino, but I know Tim Kaine and have the deepest respect for him,” added a Colorado Democrat. “He has that rare quality of listening to people and at the same time the honesty to tell folks the truth, not make empty promises. He is an incredibly compassionate human being who looks at politics as public service. Having worked closely with Tim Kaine in the past, I know how committed he is to the public good.”

A Nevada Democrat added: “Tim is a good and decent man, and people get that about him quickly. He will create quite a positive contrast with the Republican ticket and will add some trustworthiness to Hillary's image.”

Even in Iowa, where a number of insiders said they were pulling for Tom Vilsack — Obama’s long-time agriculture secretary and the state’s former governor — the Kaine pick was met with cheers.

“While all Iowa Democrats would have been thrilled to have our former governor, Tom Vilsack, on the ticket with Hillary, that did not happen. Sen. Kaine is a wonderful choice and brings to the ticket a strong background in foreign relations and military matters.”

The vast majority of Democrats were unmoved by the suggestion that progressive voters won’t get behind the ticket now that Clinton has chosen a running mate with a more moderate record.

“Voters don't vote for vice president,” said one Nevada Democrat. “If you were a progressive hold-out, the VP most likely wasn't going to change your mind. Let's see where those voters stand after the full court press of a Democratic National Convention — a convention that includes a prominent role for Bernie Sanders and other progressives.”

There were some skeptical Democrats, however. Some insisted that Clinton whiffed by not picking a more progressive, or ethnically diverse, candidate.

“She should have been bold enough to look to the future, to capture the spirit of forward movement in America,” said a Florida Democrat. “The opportunity to recognize the millennials has been missed. Hillary allowed Donald Trump's fear of a new America to prevent her from the bold acceptance of the benefits and advantages of diversity in America.”

One Colorado Democrat looked unfavorably on Kaine’s tenure as chairman of the Democratic National Committee; Kaine was chosen by President Obama and served as DNC chair between his term as governor and the launch of his campaign for Senate in 2012. That Democrat called the pick: “an I-95 move that fails to comprehend that voters do not want insiders,” adding: “Many activists remember Kaine as the person who dismantled [Howard] Dean's 50-State Strategy and then oversaw one of the greatest Democratic losses in 2010.”

But overall, Kaine earned plaudits from the battleground-state operatives — including those in the other party.

“He is a confident, experienced person highly popular in a swing state,” a New Hampshire Republican said. “He meets every test of having to potentially step in as POTUS and meets the Holiday Inn test: The best surprise is no surprise.”

Ultimately, however, insiders cast doubt on the importance of the running mate to the candidate’s chances to win.

“The political implications of the VP pick are overblown,” a Florida Democrat said. “Basically it is a pass/fail test, and with Kaine she passed it with flying colors.”

A Republican in Kaine’s home state called the senator “nice and likable. A really nice guy all-around. While he is more liberal than he presents, his style is very suburban and low-key. He is clean and won't embarrass [Clinton], which after all is the primary requirement.”