British politics

The year ahead in British politics

2016 promises to be just as rollicking as 2015 was. 

By  Sebastian Payne

We have reached that awkward time between Christmas and New Year where everyone and their mother reflects on the last 12 months and looks forward to the year ahead. So, it is my turn. 2015 has been a jam-packed year in British politics — not least because of the general election — but this year is significant as much for what did not happen as for those events that did.

Here are the ten events that did not take place in 2015, but could happen in 2016.

1. David Cameron did not leave Downing Street. The pollsters, pundits and even the man himself did not believe he was on track to win a majority. Another coalition with the Liberal Democrats was judged to be the best hope for Cameron remaining at No.10. Instead, the Conservatives’ strategy of quietly targeting the Liberal Democrats in the South West and pairing Ed Miliband with Nicola Sturgeon gave Cameron a second term as prime minister, as well as the Tories their first majority in 23 years. But with a referendum on the horizon, can Cameron keep his party and country behind his leadership, if the result does not go in his favor?

2. There was no EU referendum. The Conservatives won a majority in May’s general election, the EU Referendum Bill has duly made its way through Parliament, and the prime minister has hinted the vote is likely to take place in 2016. Although Downing Street has been keen to get the referendum out of the way as soon as possible, a quick renegotiation and vote this year was never going to happen. But if the referendum does not happen next year, it most certainly will in 2017.

3. There was no Conservative leadership contest. Cameron has finally proved to his party that he is a winner; his position as party leader is (for now) secure. Those ambling up to try and succeed him— Theresa May, Boris Johnson and George Osborne to name a few — were ready to pounce after May 7 but they were to be disappointed. Their desire for the top job remains as strong as ever, so if the country does not follow the prime minister’s likely position for Britain to remain in the EU, a leadership election may happen in 2016.

4. The Labour Party did not collapse. The rise of Jeremy Corbyn in the latter half of this year has been a difficult one for Labour. Nominated by just 35 of the party’s 232 MPs, the bearded one rode a wave of populism encapsulated by his “straight talking, honest politics” slogan. His leadership has been anything but straight talking, yet he has held his party together during his first 100 days. But will he be able to survive a poor showing in May 2016’s elections in Scotland, Wales, London and numerous local councils?

5. Jeremy Corbyn did not defeat a leadership coup. There was much chatter in the Labour Party about an immediate coup to remove Corbyn as soon as he was elected. It did not take long for Corbyn’s leadership to endure its first bumps and the party rulebook was duly examined to see if and how he could be removed as leader. But no coup came and Corbyn is heading into 2016 in a strong position. There is even talk of a revenge reshuffle early in the new year to remove his ‘disloyal’ colleagues. But could this isolate him if his enemies get their act together and risk a coup next year?

6. Nigel Farage did not quit as UKIP leader. Having failed to win the seat of South Thanet, Farage initially followed through on his promise to resign as leader of UKIP, but his resignation was “rejected” by his party’s national executive committee under mysterious circumstances. His continued presence at the top of the party has raised questions about UKIP’s future and whether its growth has faltered. But with the EU vote fast approaching, Farage will either campaign himself out of a job, or he will fail in his mission to take Britain out of the EU.

7. The SNP did not hit the peak of its popularity. The Scottish Nationalists became the third largest party in the House of Commons, jumping from six to 56 MPs at the general election. With a sole Labour, Conservative and Liberal Democrat MP north of the border, the march of the SNP looks set to continue into 2016 and the party is expected to perform well in May’s elections at the Scottish Assembly in Holyrood. Unionists continue to wonder: will the SNP’s support begin to ebb away, or will Scotland move toward a one-party state?

8. The Scottish Conservatives did not see a revival. Ruth Davidson has been the very breath of fresh air the Tories needed north of the border. An effervescent campaigner, Davidson did her best to fight the nationalist tide but failed to make many gains. The Tories only held on to one MP in Scotland and their vote share slightly dropped. But could the Scottish Tories usurp Labour north of the border as the second most popular party?

9. The Liberal Democrats did not entirely disappear. 2015 was a very bad year for the Liberal Democrats. As payback for its time in government, the party received its worst result since 1970 and the number of Lib Dem MPs dropped from 52 to eight. Under the leadership of Tim Farron, the party has tried to throw off the shackles of a traditional organization and become more of a campaigning organization — but the spotlight has moved elsewhere. The question now is whether the party can hold onto its support base in local government, again in May’s elections.

10. Boris Johnson did not make it into the Cabinet. The Mayor of London returned to the Commons as the MP for Uxbridge and South Ruislip, but he was not given a job by David Cameron. Instead, he currently attends meetings of the political cabinet until his mayoralty is over. He is still expected to be given a big government job later in the year — assuming he can toe the government’s line on Europe. Boris could soon find himself serving beside his old pal Cameron, or he might jump into the Brexit camp and begin persuading the country the prime minister has failed in his renegotiations.

Phew, there we go. As you can see, 2016 is shaping to be every bit as eventful as 2015 in the world of British politics. In the meantime, I wish you all very a happy new year.