Underdog

Scott Walker, Underdog

Can the Wisconsin governor, for the first time in his political career, execute a come-from-behind victory? 

By JR Ross

Scott Walker is struggling on the campaign trail to adjust to a new dynamic: Losing. After leading the GOP presidential pack in Iowa for much of the spring and summer, the Wisconsin governor—who is used to being the darling of the party’s conservative wing—has seen his support in the state cut in half since the first Republican debate. He now lags behind not only Republican frontrunner Donald Trump but also Ben Carson, a neurosurgeon with no political experience to speak of.

It’s an unfamiliar place for the governor, who frequently brags about how he’s won three elections in four years but who has typically been the frontrunner in those Wisconsin races. In those campaigns, he’s enjoyed a financial and polling advantage that has allowed him to focus more on the message he wants to deliver than reacting to any of his opponents. “He’s never had much in the line of competition. He chewed them up early and they were gone,” says Brandon Scholz, a former executive director for the Republican Party of Wisconsin and longtime GOP operative.

Walker is perhaps the candidate most affected by the rise of Trump—and to some extent Carson and Carly Fiorina—all candidates who have never held elected office. As GOP voters look for a messenger to capture their unhappiness with Washington, the non-politicians are having a much easier time making an outsider pitch to those voters than Walker and have forced him into the unusual position of trying to prove his anti-establishment credentials. In the past, he was able to smartly ride the GOP waves of 2010 and 2014 to comfortable wins, vowing to take on special interests and fight for “big, bold” reforms, even though he’s spent almost his entire adult life in public office.

Today, though, the campaign is finding Walker knocked off-kilter as other candidates—primarily Trump—are setting the agenda for him; the Walker message discipline long familiar to Wisconsinites is failing him, as he stumbles through answering questions about border walls and birthright citizenship. Meanwhile, his new situation on the campaign trail is raising a fresh question in political circles: Can Scott Walker run effectively if he’s behind or might he find himself unable to replicate his earlier successes?

As the campaign seeks to get Walker back on track, they’re now trying to highlight how Walker is just as frustrated as they are, but unlike a Trump, Fiorina or Carson, he’s actually done something about it. During a conference call with supporters two weeks ago, Walker suggested the fact Trump has been leading in the polls shows the public is unhappy with the establishment in Washington, according to a source who participated in the discussion. And that assessment seems to be playing out in recent surveys like the Monmouth University Poll of likely Iowa Republican caucus goers released Monday. In addition to finding Walker in fifth place at seven percent—down 15 points from July, when he was in the lead—the survey found 66 percent of Republicans surveyed believe the country needs a president from outside government to bring a new approach to Washington.

That attitude has been reflected in Walker’s recent campaign stops, including one in Minnesota where he told factory workers “I’m fed up with Washington, too,” and knocked the failure of Washington Republicans to put legislation on the president’s desk to repeal the Affordable Care Act. The shot at D.C. had the added bonus of differentiating Walker from GOP senators in the field such as Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio and Rand Paul, the latter of whom has dismissed Walker as a “career politician.”

Walker has also started regaling voters with stories of his fights with the GOP establishment in Wisconsin, saying they “didn't want to rattle things up too much” after returning to power in the state Capitol. At one stop, he told voters he relayed to his fellow Republicans it was time to “put up or shut up.”

That line didn’t play so well back home. Wisconsin Assembly Speaker Robin Vos, R-Rochester, and other GOP lawmakers objected to the allegation they had any real reservations over the collective bargaining changes for public employees, and the governor eventually tweaked the line to single out a handful of reluctant lawmakers.

In addition to pushback on his new rhetoric, a fresh round of questions over Walker’s preparedness for the presidency has distracted from his attempt to re-boot his campaign.

The immigration issue, most of all, continues to bedevil the governor. At one point few weeks ago he seemed to align himself with Trump by voicing support for ending birthright citizenship. Days later, he wasn’t taking a position on the issue “one way or another.” Within a week, he declared that he wouldn’t seek to repeal the 14th amendment, which grants birthright citizenship, and that he believes the conversation should strictly be about securing the border and enforcing the laws already on the books. From there, he told “Meet the Press” Sunday that building a wall along the United States' northern border "is a legitimate issue for us to look at.”

Even Walker’s demand the president cancel a state visit by Xi Jinping and show some “backbone” on relations between the two countries prompted a series of stories about Walker’s meeting with the Chinese president during a 2013 trade mission and his administration’s plans for another trip there for business executives early next year.

Walker has had an excellent reputation in Wisconsin for his message discipline. But he also has a habit of brainstorming out loud on some issues, adding nuances that can vary from stop to stop before he reaches his final talking point. Wisconsin insiders have noted that was OK in Wisconsin during visits to places like Eau Claire and Wausau with a different media contingent in each market. But now, he’s got reporters following his every word and analyzing any deviations.

Vos says Walker is used to a state press corps that has “always been fair, not overtly trying” to take him down. By contrast, regarding the national media, Vos says, “I think their job is to literally pick people apart until there are only bones left.”