Walker’s demise

Insiders: Rubio wins in Walker’s demise

‘The body wasn’t even cold yet and Rubio's New Hampshire staff was picking off dazed Walker supporters,’ says one New Hampshire Republican.

By Katie Glueck

Scott Walker’s exit is a big win for Marco Rubio.

That’s the consensus of Republican insiders in Iowa and New Hampshire, with about 40 percent of our POLITICO Caucus members picking the junior senator from Florida over all other GOP contenders as the one most likely to benefit from Walker’s decision to quit.

“The second the news broke they were aggressive in courting Walker supporters to find a home in the Rubio camp and it worked to their benefit,” said a New Hampshire Republican in our weekly bipartisan pulse-taking of the top operatives, activists and strategists in the two early states.

“He is offensive to no one in the GOP,” the insider said. “As such, as candidates drop out, they may naturally gravitate to Rubio. He is the one candidate who could unify a very angry, fractured party.”

An Iowa Republican, who like all participants was granted anonymity in order to speak freely, agreed. “Many of Walker's early supporters were decidedly not for Bush. If that holds, a new conservative voice that both holds principle and has engaged to get things done could benefit. Rubio most closely fits that mantle.”

After Walker’s sudden exit from the race on Monday, several campaigns tried to quickly snatch up the Wisconsin governor’s staff and supporters. But the spotlight quickly found Rubio, who was fresh off another widely praised debate performance and is enjoying a bump in the polls.

“He was strong in the debate and appeals to much of the base that Walker was focused on,” a New Hampshire Republican said. “He's also a natural for picking off Walker's donor base.”

Democrats in New Hampshire agreed — with 52 percent naming Rubio as the winner. “Rubio benefits, in the sense that a cleaner, smaller field gives him more of a chance to shine. His strategy has long been to be in the conversation when it got serious, and the field got smaller. He is the most talented candidate running, and, it appears, a very disciplined candidate, as well. As the field thins out, these strengths will become more evident.”

Only 22 percent of Iowa Democrats said Rubio was the biggest beneficiary. Most Democrats there chose Jeb Bush.

Among the Republicans who didn’t choose Rubio, there was a divide between insiders in Iowa and New Hampshire — 16 percent of Iowa Republicans said Cruz was the biggest beneficiary of Walker’s exit while 22 percent of New Hampshire Republicans said no one would benefit, a nod to the fact that Walker didn’t establish much of a base there.

“Knocks out one of few candidates with legit super PAC dough that was playing hard for Iowa's anti-establishment, evangelical right,” said one Iowa Republican who picked Cruz. “One less hurdle to clear as Cruz attempts to consolidate Iowa's Christian conservative electorate.”

One New Hampshire Republican, who also saw Cruz as best-positioned to benefit from Walker’s departure, added: “Walker made a fateful strategic decision to try to win the right-wing primary within the primary, and he lost. Cruz will end up winning this contest, which will make him a player in February. Lord help us: By the time Trump is a nonfactor, we'll have to deal with Cruz.”

Nearly two thirds of Democratic insiders sided against their party chief, Debbie Wasserman Schultz, saying Democrats should host more than the six primary debates now planned and sanctioned.

“It is beyond foolhardy that the DNC is allowing all of the air time to go to Republicans at this time,” said one New Hampshire Democratic insider, who like all participants responded via an online form. “This is the worst of insider politics and throws up far greater hurdles for our Democratic candidates. And, in fact, it is damaging Clinton by reminding folks of just how things get done by insiders."

An Iowa Democrat agreed: "No Democrat benefits from fewer debates. … Our DNC Chair shoots herself in the foot every day by resisting additional debates. The only positive is that at this rate she won't be our chair much longer."

Several Caucus participants noted that when Wasserman Schultz spoke at a Democratic gathering in New Hampshire recently, she was drowned out by protesters calling for debates.

"Wasserman Schultz is remarkably tin-eared in an almost Shakespearean tragedy sort of way," a New Hampshire Democrat said. "Several of her vice chairs have thankfully spoken out on the need for debate and this is deeply appreciated in New Hampshire. ... The only person less popular with Granite State Democrats right now than Donald Trump is Debbie Wasserman Schultz."

Other Democratic insiders said Hillary Clinton needs to be pushed harder in the primary, so that she would be better-prepared in the general if she wins the nomination.

“It's good for the nominee to have more shots to improve as a debater,” a New Hampshire Democrat said. “It shouldn't be like 2011-2012 for the Republicans, with 20+ debates — but making it more like 8-9 would be the right thing to do.”

Added an Iowa Democrat, "We have only gotten platitudes from Clinton and Sanders on many issues like climate, women's issues and Wall Street reform. Let's hear specifics and make the candidates work for our votes. Iowa Democrats saw a candidate in 2014 that saw no primary and s--t the bed in the general election."

"[Even] if there are not more, the schedule should be adjusted: Having the N.H. debate the Saturday night before Christmas is nuts," a New Hampshire Democrat said. "That may have been defensible when we were forced by other states to hold our primary in early January [Jan. 8, 2008], but it makes zero sense when it is not likely to be until February. Like nature, politics abhors a vacuum and if the DNC does not act on this, someone will and if there is a Democratic debate shortly before N.H. primary, the candidates will come — sanctions or no sanctions."