Support for agreement...

Obama one vote away from securing Iran deal 

Two key Senate Democrats – Chris Coons and Bob Casey – declared their support for the nuclear agreement Tuesday.

By Nahal Toosi and Seung Min Kim

The next "yes" vote will be the deciding vote for President Barack Obama’s Iran deal.

Two key Senate Democrats — Chris Coons of Delaware and Bob Casey of Pennsylvania — declared their support for the nuclear agreement on Tuesday, putting the Obama administration just one Senate vote away from blocking congressional attempts to kill the accord.

Coons, a key bellwether for Democrats on Iran, announced his position in a lengthy speech at the University of Delaware on Tuesday — saying that the potential consequences for U.S. allies, as well as the unlikelihood that negotiators could go back to secure a different outcome with Tehran, led him to reluctantly back the agreement.

“Thus, in a very hard choice between either rejecting the agreement and taking on the uncertainty and risks of compelling a return to sanctions and negotiations or a path that accepts the positives of this deal and attempts to manage and minimize the short and long term consequences of its flaws, I choose the latter,” Coons said.

Coons officially became the 33rd Senate Democrat to back the Iran deal, and Obama needs 34 to block any attempts to override his veto of legislation that would scuttle the deal. Earlier Tuesday, Casey came out in support of the Iran nuclear deal, becoming the 32nd Democrat to pledge support for the agreement.

A senior Obama administration official said: "We've always been confident this deal would be implemented. And this is another step in that direction."

Both Democrats were considered key swing votes for the administration on Iran, and Coons in particular had been conflicted on the Iran deal for weeks. And he made clear in his speech Tuesday that he still had a number of concerns about the accord, including its enforcement mechanisms, which Coons said should have been “clearer and stronger.”

“Frankly, this is not the agreement I hoped for,” Coons said.

The low-key Democratic senator had been the subject of a number of personal appeals from the highest levels of the administration, including direct calls and letters from Obama — one of which arrived as recently as Tuesday — and Vice President Joe Biden, a fellow Delawarean whom Coons said he would support if he chooses to run for president.

“The vice president, whom I trust on these issues and whom I think has been an unshakeable friend of Israel for his entire political career, I relied on his guidance,” Coons said. “But my vote is my vote, and I’m responsible for it.”

Shortly before Coons’ speech, Casey announced his decision after weeks of mulling the much-disputed deal with the longtime U.S. nemesis. His statement is 17 pages long, including more than a page of citations, and it goes through a range of concerns and objections raised by skeptics of the deal before essentially rebutting each one.

“I firmly believe that effective implementation of the [agreement], bolstered by other U.S. policies, including a strong deterrence policy of the U.S. and our partners, will be in our national security interest,” Casey writes. “This agreement will substantially constrain the Iranian nuclear program for its duration, and compared with all realistic alternatives, it is the best option available to us at this time.”

The Democrat, who writes that this was “one of the most difficult decisions of my public career,” isn’t without reservations about the deal. He says he's skeptical that Iran will uphold its end of the bargain, and notes that the U.S. must be prepared to act in a worst-case scenario.

“The only effective deterrent to ultimately prevent or destroy an Iranian nuclear threat today, or 15 years from now, is the credible threat of a U.S. military strike to destroy any Iranian nuclear weapons infrastructure completely,” the senator writes.

But Casey also goes into the detail about the dozens of briefings, conversations and other engagements he has had in researching the agreement and its implications. He extensively cites some of the experts he has spoken to or read in discussing areas of concern, such as whether the U.S. can in the future use non-nuclear-related sanctions to punish Iran for its regional mischief (he’s confident it can but warns the U.S. cannot waver in its determination to do so).

Casey devotes a whole section to Israel, whose leadership is adamantly opposed to the agreement with the Islamist-led regime in Tehran. He cites at length assurances by U.S. officials, including Obama, that the Jewish-majority state’s security will remain a top priority. But he also notes, “It is crucial that our unwavering support for Israel and our commitment to further enhance Israel’s military capabilities only continue to strengthen.”

As Congress prepares for a potential mid-September vote on the agreement, whose parties include not just the United States and Iran but also Russia, China, Britain, France and Germany, the wind appears to be at the Obama administration’s back.

The White House needs only 34 Democrats to support the deal in the Senate to ensure that a presidential veto of GOP legislation to kill the deal would be upheld. At this stage, it’s possible the administration could get enough support so that a filibuster from lawmakers backing the deal could prevent the agreement from being voted on in the first place.

Still, Coons himself seemed skeptical that a resolution of disapproval of the Iran agreement would be successfully filibustered — thus avoiding any need for Obama to issue a veto. Coons said the prospects of the deal’s backers getting 41 votes to block the measure is a “very close call.”

Noting that he’s spoken with most of the Senate Democrats who are still on the fence, Coons added: “I think this will be a very difficult decision for every one of the remaining undecided senators.”

Democratic holdouts on the Iran deal include Michael Bennet of Colorado, the most vulnerable Senate Democrat up for reelection next fall; Ben Cardin, the top Democrat on the Foreign Relations Committee; and Cory Booker of New Jersey, who is facing considerable pressure from Jewish constituents and whose home-state colleague, Robert Menendez, has been one of the most vocal Democratic critics of the Obama administration’s policies toward Iran.

Aside from Menendez, Sen. Chuck Schumer of New York — the third-ranking Senate Democrat — is the only other Senate Democrat who has said he will oppose the deal.