A place were I can write...

My simple blog of pictures of travel, friends, activities and the Universe we live in as we go slowly around the Sun.



November 29, 2021

Solar Development

Every City Should Encourage This Kind of Solar Development

It uses pre-cleared land, makes electricity where needed, and keeps parking lots cool.

RICHARD CONNIFF

Fly into Orlando, Florida, and you may notice a 22-acre solar power array in the shape of Mickey Mouse’s head in a field just west of Disney World. Nearby, Disney also has a 270-acre solar farm of conventional design on former orchard and forest land. Park your car in any of Disney’s 32,000 parking spaces, on the other hand, and you won’t see a canopy overhead generating solar power (or providing shade)—not even if you snag one of the preferred spaces for which visitors pay up to $50 a day.

This is how it typically goes with solar arrays: We build them on open space rather than in developed areas. That is, they overwhelmingly occupy croplands, arid lands, and grasslands, not rooftops or parking lots, according to a global inventory published last month in Nature. In the United States, for instance, roughly 51 percent of utility-scale solar facilities are in deserts; 33 percent are on croplands; and 10 percent are in grasslands and forests. Just 2.5 percent of US solar power comes from urban areas.

The argument for doing it this way can seem compelling: It is cheaper to build on undeveloped land than on rooftops or in parking lots. And building alternative power sources fast and cheap is critical in the race to replace fossil fuels and avert catastrophic climate change. It’s also easier to manage a few big solar farms in an open landscape than a thousand small ones scattered across urban areas.

But that doesn’t necessarily make it smarter. Undeveloped land is a rapidly dwindling resource, and what’s left is under pressure to deliver a host of other services we require from the natural world—growing food, sheltering wildlife, storing and purifying water, preventing erosion, and sequestering carbon, among others. And that pressure is rapidly intensifying. By 2050, in one plausible scenario from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), supplying solar power for all our electrical needs could require ground-based solar on 0.5 percent of the total land area of the United States. To put that number in perspective, NREL senior research Robert Margolis says it’s “less land than we already dedicate to growing corn ethanol for biofuels.”

It works out, however, to 10.3 million acres. Because it is more efficient to generate power close to customers, some states could end up with as much as five percent of their total land area—and 6.5 percent in tiny Rhode Island—under ground-based solar arrays, according to the NREL study. If we also ask solar power to run the nation’s entire automotive fleet, says Margolis, that adds another 5 million acres. It’s still less than half the 31 million acres of cropland eaten up in 2019 to grow corn for ethanol, a notoriously inefficient climate change remedy.

Despite the green image, putting solar facilities on undeveloped land is often not much better than putting subdivisions there. Developers tend to bulldoze sites, “removing all of the above-ground vegetation,” says Rebecca Hernandez, an ecologist at the University of California at Davis. That’s bad for insects and the birds that feed on them. In the Southwest deserts where most US solar farms now get built, the losses can also include “1,000-year-old creosote shrubs, and 100-year-old yuccas,” or worse. The proposed 530-megawatt Aratina Solar Project around Boron, California, for instance, would destroy almost 4,300 western Joshua trees, a species imperiled, ironically, by development and climate change. (It is currently being considered for state protected status.) In California, endangered desert tortoises end up being translocated, with unknown results, says Hernandez. And the tendency to cluster solar facilities in the buffer zones around protected areas can confuse birds and other wildlife and complicate migratory corridors.

The appeal of parking lots and rooftops, by contrast, is that they are abundant, close to customers, largely untapped for solar power generation, and on land that’s already been stripped of much of its biological value.

A typical Walmart supercenter, for instance, has a five-acre parking lot, and it’s a wasteland, especially if you have to sweat your way across it under an asphalt-bubbling sun. Put a canopy over it, though, and it could support a three-megawatt solar array, according to a recent study co-authored by Joshua Pearce of Western University in Ontario. In addition to providing power to the store, the neighboring community, or the cars sheltered underneath, says Pearce, the canopy would shade customers—and keep them shopping longer, as their car batteries top up. If Walmart did that at all 3,571 of its US super centers, the total capacity would be 11.1 gigawatts of solar power—roughly equivalent to a dozen large coal-fired power plants. Taking account of the part-time nature of solar power, Pearce figures that would be enough to permanently shut down four of those power plants.

And yet solar canopies are barely beginning to show up in this country’s endless acreage of parking lots. The Washington, D.C., Metro transit system, for instance, has just contracted to build its first solar canopies at four of its rail station parking lots, with a projected capacity of 12.8 megawatts. New York’s John F. Kennedy International Airport is now building its first, a 12.3 megawatt canopy costing $56 million. Evansville (Indiana) Regional Airport, however, already has two, covering 368 parking spaces, at a cost of $6.5 million. According to a spokesperson, the solar canopy earned a $310,000 profit in its first year of operation, based on premium pricing of those spaces and the sale of power at wholesale rates to the local utility.

Rutgers University built one of the largest solar parking facilities in the country at its Piscataway, New Jersey campus, with a 32-acre footprint, an 8-megawatt output, and a business plan that the campus energy conservation manager called “pretty much cash-positive from the get-go.” A new Yale School of the Environment study finds that solar canopies on parking lots could provide a third of Connecticut’s power, help meet the governor’s target of a zero-carbon electric sector by 2040, and incidentally serve environmental justice by reducing the urban heat island effect. So far, however, few such canopies exist in Connecticut, according to Kieren Rudge, the study’s author.

One reason such facilities are still scarce is that building solar on developed land can cost anywhere from two to five times as much as on open space. For a parking lot canopy, says Pearce, “you’re looking at more substantial structural steel with a fairly substantial concrete base.” It’s like putting up a building minus the walls. For a public company fixated on quarterly results, the payback time of 10 or 12 years can also seem discouragingly long. But that’s the wrong way to look at it, says Pearce. “If I can give you a greater-than-four-percent return on a guaranteed infrastructure investment that will last for 25 years minimum,” that’s a smart investment. It’s also possible to avoid the upfront cost entirely, with a third-party business or nonprofit paying for the installation under a power purchase agreement.

One other reason for the persistent scarcity, according to Blocking The Sun, a 2017 report from Environment America, a Denver-based coalition of state environmental groups, is that utility and fossil fuel interests have repeatedly undermined government policies that would encourage rooftop and parking lot solar. That report described anti-solar lobbying by the Edison Electric Institute, representing publicly-owned utilities; the American Legislative Exchange Council (ALEC), a lobbying group known for inserting right-wing language into state laws; the Koch-funded Americans for Prosperity; and the Consumer Energy Alliance, a fossil fuel-and-utility front group, among others.

Throwing Shade, a 2018 report from the Center for Biological Diversity, gave a failing grade to 10 states for policies that actively discourage rooftop solar. These states—Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Indiana, Louisiana, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, and Wisconsin—represent a third of the nation’s rooftop solar potential, but delivered just 7.5 percent in 2017. They typically make it difficult for homeowners or property owners to install solar and connect it to the grid, or they prohibit a third party from paying for the installation. Most also lack a net-metering policy, or otherwise limit the ability of solar customers to feed the excess energy they produce by day into the grid, to be credited against what they take back at other times. Most also lack renewable-portfolio standards, which would require utilities to generate, or purchase, a portion of their electricity from renewable energy sources.

It’s possible to overturn such rules. In 2015, a Nevada power company pushed the public utility commission to approve measures penalizing rooftop solar. A voter backlash soon drove the legislature, in a unanimous vote, to override the commission and restore pro-solar regulations. Voters could also go a step further and push state and local governments to encourage smarter solar power siting, with tax breaks for rooftop and parking solar, and also, says Rebecca Hernandez, for solar installations that incorporate multiple technical and ecological benefits.

That could mean added state incentives to build solar farms on brownfields, closed landfills, or degraded farmland, and not on more fragile or productive ecosystems. According to a 2019 Nature study, US degraded lands now cover an area twice the size of California, with the solar potential to supply more than a third of the nation’s electrical power. It could also mean incentives for new technologies. For instance, “floatovoltaics”—solar panels floating on inland canals, wastewater lagoons, and other water bodies—are cheaper to build and more efficient because of natural cooling. In some circumstances, they also benefit wildlife, attracting herons, grebes, cormorants, and other waterfowl, probably to feed on fish attracted to the shade underneath.

Smarter incentives could also apply to working farms—for instance, in the dry, unprofitable corners of fields with huge, center-pivot irrigation systems, or in fields planted with shade-tolerant crops. Massachusetts already has the first such incentive program, targeting solar farms paired with pollinator plantings, or designed for grazing by sheep, as well as in other dual-purpose categories.

It’s possible zoning restrictions on solar farms could follow, especially in areas already anxious about the loss of farmland to subdivisions. But it’s unlikely. States are more likely to follow the example of California, where “net-zero energy” building codes, together with economic practicalities, now dictate that almost all new commercial and residential buildings incorporate solar power from the start. In that scenario, parking lots, long a drain on retail budgets and a blight on the urban landscape, will instead belatedly begin to play their part in generating power—and shading the world, if not saving it.

Republican Brave?????

Anonymous Republican Bravely Stands Up to Kevin McCarthy

JEREMY SCHULMAN

Great news! At long last, Republicans in the House of Representatives are taking a courageous stand against the wing of their party that traffics in bigotry and outlandish conspiracy theories and that tried to end America democracy. Just look at the exciting headline on this scoop CNN published yesterday: “Moderate House Republican warns McCarthy over embracing far-right members.”

Wow! So who is this brave lawmaker—this statesman who is willing to fight back against GOP leader Kevin McCarthy and the Trump acolytes McCarthy has spent years appeasing?

A moderate House Republican is firing off a warning shot at House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy as he caters to his right flank in a quest for the speaker’s gavel.

“He’s taking the middle of the conference for granted,” the GOP lawmaker told CNN, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss internal conference dynamics. “McCarthy could have a bigger math problem with the moderates.”

Specifically, the lawmaker said a number of moderates are upset with how McCarthy, of California, has embraced some of the extremists in the GOP conference and warned it could hurt the party in swing districts and undermine their chances of winning back the majority.

Oh.

The story, which was not published by The Onion, adds that this courageously unnamed public servant “predicted other moderate lawmakers would start speaking out publicly if McCarthy doesn’t do more to rein in the fringe members in the party.”

“Our side isn’t going to take this much longer,” the anonymous lawmaker valiantly concludes.

The absurdity here is self-evident. I don’t really blame CNN for publishing it—it’s a pretty useful window into how ineffective the non-authoritarian faction of the House GOP has become. Just a handful of Republicans voted for Trump’s second impeachment, or for the January 6 investigation, or even for the bipartisan infrastructure bill. Many of them are either retiring or in serious danger of losing to a MAGA primary challenger. The rest of the GOP caucus has spent the last five years desperately trying not to do the right thing, and they certainly aren’t interested in speaking out publicly now.

In his new book, Betrayal, ABC News’ Jonathan Karl recounts a remarkable conversation he had with McCarthy in the shadow of the Washington Monument and the Lincoln Memorial on January 2—just days before McCarthy joined most House Republicans in voting to throw out Joe Biden’s victories in Arizona and Pennsylvania. Karl noted that day that McCarthy had an opportunity to push back on the increasingly unhinged and dangerous rhetoric coming from the right. But McCarthy made it clear his priority was to avoid angering Trump:

Exaggerating to make a point about the historical weight of the moment, I nodded toward the monuments along the National Mall—memorials to political leaders remembered precisely because they did things that were both important and difficult to do.

“Who knows,” I said, “if you do the right thing, maybe there will be a statue of you out here someday.”

McCarthy laughed.

“Where’s the statue for Jeff Flake? Where the statue for that guy from Tennessee?” he said, referring to the former Republican Senator Bob Corker who, like former Republican Senator Jeff Flake, had stood up to Trump during Trump’s first two years in office. As McCarthy saw it, both men gave big speeches condemning Trump’s actions and were rewarded with political obscurity. They became pariahs within the Republican Party. Nobody talks much of Flake and Corker anymore. McCarthy believed they ultimately accomplished little by taking on Trump. Their speeches didn’t change Trump’s behavior—in fact, they may have egged him on to be more outrageous.

So, in his quest to be speaker of the House, McCarthy can vote to overturn the election. He can promise to give influential committee assignments to Reps. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) and Paul Gosar (R-Ariz.), whose extremist rhetoric got them kicked off their committees this year. And he can back the ouster of Rep. Liz Cheney (Wyo.) from GOP leadership in the wake of her outspoken condemnation of Trump’s coup attempt. But maybe if McCarthy crosses any more lines, other Republican lawmakers will “start speaking out publicly.” Perhaps they will even use their real names.

Bigoted Remarks

Republican Governor Says GOP Leader Should Condemn Boebert’s Bigoted Remarks

“It has to be called out.”

NATHALIE BAPTISTE

After a video of Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Colo.) making anti-Muslims comments about Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.) went viral over the holiday weekend, Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson, a Republican, is calling on House GOP leader Kevin McCarthy to condemn Boebert’s actions.

“I think whenever, even in our own caucus, our own members, if they go the wrong direction, I mean, it has to be called out, it has to be dealt with,” Hutchinson said on CNN’s State of the Union after viewing a clip of the comments, “particularly whenever it is breaching the civility, whenever it is crossing the line, in terms of violence or increasing the divide in our country.”

In the clip, Boebert likened Omar to a terrorist and referred to her as part of the “jihad squad.” Omar responded with a tweet and Boebert issued a quasi-apology the day after the video spread on social media. 

This latest incident comes at a time when multiple members of the Republican Party are under fire for being unable to behave professionally. Earlier this year, Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) was stripped of her committee assignments after old social media posts in which she appeared to indicate support for killing her political enemies went viral. Then, last week, Rep. Paul Gosar (R-Ariz.) was censured and removed from his committee seats after he posted an anime video that depicted him murdering Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.). 

“One of the things that’s really important to us in the future is increasing the civil debate and civil discourse,” Hutchinson said on Sunday. “And we have got to look for ways that we can bring people together, and not divide, and certainly along racial lines.”

It doesn’t appear that McCarthy will heed Hutchinson’s advice, though. In a statement, the GOP leader said only that he had spoken with Boebert and acknowledged her so-called apology. McCarthy said he had tried to help set up a meeting between Boebert and Omar, but he did not publicly condemn her statement. 

Face on....


Big, beautiful spiral galaxy M101 is one of the last entries in Charles Messier's famous catalog, but definitely not one of the least. About 170,000 light-years across, this galaxy is enormous, almost twice the size of our own Milky Way. M101 was also one of the original spiral nebulae observed by Lord Rosse's large 19th century telescope, the Leviathan of Parsontown. Assembled from 51 exposures recorded by the Hubble Space Telescope in the 20th and 21st centuries, with additional data from ground based telescopes, this mosaic spans about 40,000 light-years across the central region of M101 in one of the highest definition spiral galaxy portraits ever released from Hubble. The sharp image shows stunning features of the galaxy's face-on disk of stars and dust along with background galaxies, some visible right through M101 itself. Also known as the Pinwheel Galaxy, M101 lies within the boundaries of the northern constellation Ursa Major, about 25 million light-years away.

AFGL 3068 and IRAS 23166+1655


What created the strange spiral structure on the upper left? No one is sure, although it is likely related to a star in a binary star system entering the planetary nebula phase, when its outer atmosphere is ejected. The huge spiral spans about a third of a light year across and, winding four or five complete turns, has a regularity that is without precedent. Given the expansion rate of the spiral gas, a new layer must appear about every 800 years, a close match to the time it takes for the two stars to orbit each other. The star system that created it is most commonly known as LL Pegasi, but also AFGL 3068 and IRAS 23166+1655. The featured image was taken in near-infrared light by the Hubble Space Telescope. Why the spiral glows is itself a mystery, with a leading hypothesis being illumination by light reflected from nearby stars.

Looks like a dick...

Russia’s New Docking Module Arrives at Station

The five-ton Prichal docking module arrived at the International Space Station at 10:19 a.m. EST, propelled by a modified Russian Progress propulsion compartment. They docked to the Nauka module on the Earth-facing side of the Russian segment two days after lifting off from the Baikonur Cosmodrome in Kazakhstan Wednesday, Nov. 24 at 8:06 a.m. EST (6:06 p.m. Baikonur time). The spacecraft were flying about 260 miles over Ukraine at the time of docking.

To make room for Prichal, the uncrewed Progress 78 cargo craft undocked from Nauka at 6:23 a.m. Thursday, Nov. 25, and burned up upon reentry in the Earth’s atmosphere later that morning.

Prichal, named for the Russian word for pier, has five available docking ports to accommodate multiple Russian spacecraft and provide fuel transfer capability to the Nauka module. Named for the Russian word for “science,” Nauka launched to the space station in July.

The modified Progress transport spacecraft that guided Prichal to the station will remain in place until late December.

Changing the political equation in Florida

How ‘Climate Migrants’ Are Roiling American Politics

Refugees fleeing weather-related disasters are changing the political equation in Florida, Virginia, California, Idaho and beyond.

By BEN LEFEBVRE

When Puerto Rican native Olga González became the first Latina mayor of Kissimmee, Fla., last year, she credited God for her victory. Others pointed to climate change.

A fast-growing Orlando suburb of 80,000 people, Kissimmee saw its Puerto Rican population grow substantially after the damage wrought by Hurricane Maria in 2017 prompted many struggling families to leave the island for Florida.

Kissimmee gained a whopping 10,000 new residents between 2017 and 2020, according to census data. Osceola County, where Kissimmee is located, and neighboring Orange County saw their combined Puerto Rican population jump more than 12 percent. The changes were so profound that González found herself competing with two other Puerto Rican candidates to become Kissimmee’s mayor.

“Hurricane Maria ... served as a reintroduction of the Puerto Rican population into Central Florida,” said Fernando Rivera, director of the Puerto Rico Research Hub at the University of Central Florida. Now, “we’re seeing growth in the leadership [of Puerto Ricans].”

The concept of climate migration — population shifts forced by destructive weather changes — has been studied for years. But most Americans still think of it as something that happens elsewhere, or a future doomsday scenario about people flocking to North Dakota to escape extreme weather along the coasts. But experts are saying it’s happening in subtler ways already, forcing people to make moves as dramatic as the influx of Puerto Ricans to central Florida and as mundane as people in tidewater Virginia choosing one county over another to live in to avoid a possible flood plain.

But as evidenced by González’s election, such changes are significant enough to start scrambling the political map, with experts foreseeing a cascading effect of changes to come.

“We’re seeing it now,” said Carlos Martín, a David M. Rubenstein fellow with the Brookings Institution’s Metro program. “It’s not a managed retreat, it's an unmanaged retreat. And any demographic change usually brings about political change.”

The impacts are varied, from the quarter of a million Louisianans who fled New Orleans, mostly for Texas, after Hurricane Katrina, with the 40,000 who stayed bringing more non-white and Democratic voters to formerly conservative precincts; to the influx of people fleeing California’s wildfires who ended up in Chico, Calif., prompting a political backlash from local residents.

Now, as climate change fuels a greater number of strong hurricanes, causes sharper rises in sea levels and sets off ever-more-sweeping wildfires, researchers are expecting “climate relocation” to become a progressively greater force shifting the currents of politics.

Tracking the path of climate migration can be harder than tracking a storm. Analysts have resorted to combing through IRS tax returns and cellphone bills to determine where people who left areas hit by a climate-related disasters are setting up new residences. But they’ve been able to piece together enough data to conclude that climate migration is already driving population change.

“What we can say is that while the number of people moving because of environmental disasters is small, it is growing and it is responding to disaster events,” said Elizabeth Fussell, associate professor of population studies and environment and society at Brown University. “This disaster-related mobility is responsive to these very large crises, and these very large crises are increasing. The trend is toward more disasters.”

But it doesn’t require a massive disaster for weather-related concerns to alter the political map. For example, Fussell’s research shows that population growth patterns have become more responsive to environmental change, with higher inland areas of the Hampton Roads region growing faster than low-lying areas, prompting neighborhood-level shifts in the economic makeup of one of the more conservative regions of Virginia.

Like those in Hampton Roads and Virginia Beach, most people who move out of a fear of climate change try to remain close to their former homes, researchers said. That keeps them in commuting distance of their jobs and enables their children to stay in familiar schools.

But even relatively short moves can create political upheavals. About 37,000 people lived in the 240 square miles ravaged by the notorious Camp Fire in 2018, which burned for more than two weeks to become the most destructive wildfire in California history. California State University, Chico, used postal data to track 13,000 adults in the area and found that a third of those people — many with families in tow — headed 20 miles south and west to the city of Chico within six months of the blaze.

The migration added thousands of new voters to Chico, whose population swelled from roughly 93,000 to well over 111,000 in the three years since the fire, according to city records. But it also prompted a growing sense of alarm among longer-tenured residents. Karl Ory watched the repercussions firsthand. He was one of five liberals on the non-partisan seven-seat City Council when the influx began. In the following election, in which he wasn’t up for reelection, a conservative bloc flipped three liberal seats. By the time he stepped down soon afterwards, conservatives outnumbered liberals by 6-1.

The conservatives were driven in part by a new super PAC, Citizens for a Safe Chico, which spent more than $250,000 drawing attention to rising homelessness and havoc in the real estate market, among other issues.

“If you want to STOP the illegal camping and FIRES that come along with it, VOTE” for the conservative candidates to the board, the PA proclaimed on its Facebook page, amid photos of trash-strewn parks.

“People were upset,” Ory recalled. “Their whole lives changed. The opposition took advantage of that. We had more and more people coming to the [City Council] meetings. Very disruptive, very abusive, blaming us for everything.”

Liberals felt that the PAC was scapegoating the fire refugees, but it denied any such motive. Citizens for a Safe Chico, which did not reply to requests for comment, continues to call for crackdowns on the city’s homeless population. On its Facebook page, the group called the idea that the migration of Camp Fire refugees played any part in its campaign “an insult.”

“Political activists heavily invested in hiding the failures of the old regime are trying to deflect,” PAC leaders said on its website. “They want you to believe that under the tarps at Bidwell Park lie Camp Fire victims and local people who’ve simply fallen on hard times. They want you to believe that the new City Council is cruel, and they want to stop the council from fulfilling the promise of enforcement against professional transients. If you ask me, those protecting the old regime’s failed legacy are promoting a toxic level of compassion.”

Similar complaints have popped up in other areas that have seen influxes of California wildfire victims — including Treasure Valley in southwestern Idaho.

The area, which includes Boise, was already experiencing an influx of Golden State residents seeking cheaper housing, said Katie McConnell, a doctoral candidate in environmental sociology at Yale School of the Environment who is researching the flow of Californians into Idaho to escape wildfires. But as climate change made drought conditions worse and increased the frequency of wildfires in California, many more families headed north to Idaho.

“The level of damage caused routinely [by fire] is just radically different than it was even like five or six years ago,” McConnell said.

At least 70 households moved from the area destroyed by the Camp Fire within the six months following the blaze to Idaho’s Treasure Valley region around Boise, according to the California State University, Chico, data. Many residents in the area haven’t been receptive, McConnell said. “California sucks” graffiti is painted on highway overpasses and anti-domestic immigration attitudes are increasing in local politics, McConnell said.

A recent Boise State University survey found that a solid majority of respondents thought the biggest problem facing Idaho — which is the seventh least densely populated state in the country — was that it was growing too fast.

“It’s an interesting thing that happens when you'll talk to people about incoming Californians,” McConnell said. “If you're talking to a politically liberal person, they'll complain about all the rich conservatives from Orange County moving to Idaho. If you talk to a politically conservative Idahoan, they'll complain about all of the rich liberal people from the Bay moving to Idaho.”

Not all such movements cause friction, however. Researchers following the mass of people who fled Puerto Rico for central Florida in the wake of Hurricane Maria said there’s been little evidence of any backlash directed at the newcomers.

Maria, a Category 5 hurricane that gained strength amid the warming waters in the Gulf of Mexico, pounded Puerto Rico with more than three feet of rain within 24 hours and destroyed much of its infrastructure. In the months following the 2017 storm, about 133,000 thousand of the island’s residents headed to the U..S. mainland, according to data compiled by the University of Central Florida’s Puerto Rico Research Hub. Those who arrived in Florida were easily absorbed into a community that already had a strong network of former islanders living in the area.

The population shift after Hurricane Maria was enough to catapult Florida past New York as the state hosting the largest number of former island residents, said Rivera, of the Puerto Rico Research Hub. Both Democrats and Republicans viewed the new arrivals as potential supporters, Rivera said.

“You could see both Democrats and Republicans were saying, ’What are we gonna do? We need the Puerto Rican vote,’” Rivera said. “You had [President Joe] Biden coming to Tampa, to Kissimmee. There was a big outreach for both political parties.”

The Puerto Ricans who decided to stay in Florida permanently are now starting to flex their own political muscles, Rivera added.

“So now in places like Osceola County, you have more representation, you have a Puerto Rican mayor, you have the first chair that is Puerto Rican in Orange County, you have school board leaders that are being elected,” he said. “So more and more, you start seeing kind of those changes in the representation, particularly for Puerto Ricans, here.”

This year’s Hurricane Ida, a Category 4 storm that once again battered Puerto Rico, sent thousands more island residents fleeing to Florida. The steady flow of newcomers has stressed the region’s already outdated infrastructure, putting some new political issues on the region’s agenda, said Carlos Torrealba, climate justice program manager at Central Florida Jobs with Justice, a nonprofit that advocates for workers’ rights.

Many of the people arriving from Puerto Rico found jobs in the area’s tourism industry. But they were surprised at how little the jobs paid, especially in relation to the high cost of living in the Orlando area.

“You come here, you get relocated because of climate change, and then it’s shitty because of pay and lack of benefits,” Torrealba said. “Puerto Rico has better labor laws than Florida does. They come here and they’re like, ’What, this is legal?’ Then they join the union.”

Sofia Ortiz was one of them. She had spent her life in Puerto Rico, most recently working as a paralegal. Hurricane Maria actually spared her home, but the resulting power outages killed off local businesses and forced her and her partner to move to Florida in search of work.

“I got lucky because I could stay with the family of my partner” in the city of Deltona, Ortiz said. Others fleeing Maria were worse off, she recalled: “Some of them had to live in motels or in cars. It was crazy.”

Ortiz and her partner then struck out on their own, moving to Orlando, where she took a job as a housekeeper at Disney World. While there, she became more interested in the issue of climate change, she said. She also became fed up with her working conditions and joined Unite Here Local 737, the union representing service workers at Disney World and other tourism businesses in the area. She eventually became an organizer for the union.

Ortiz traveled with the union to this fall’s U.N. Climate Conference in Glasgow, Scotland. Their purpose, she said, was to raise the issue of climate migration.

“That’s our issue,” she said. “It’s something that happens every year. We need to discuss what needs to be done with people. We need to hear ideas and make solutions.”

They're going to be lying

Fauci: ’I’m going to be saving lives and they're going to be lying’

Anthony Fauci said claims he lied about certain research funding in the Wuhan lab smacked of contempt for science.

By ALLIE BICE

Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, on Sunday said Sen. Ted Cruz’s call to prosecute him smacked of bias against science.

“Anybody who's looking at this carefully realizes that there's a distinct anti-science flavor to this,” Fauci told host Margaret Brennan on CBS’ “Face The Nation.“ “If they get up and criticize science, nobody's going to know what they're talking about. But if they get up and really aim their bullets at Tony Fauci — people could recognize there's a person there.”

In May, Fauci said the National Institutes of Health had not funded “gain of function” research at the Wuhan Institute of Virology in China — a type of research that could potentially cause pathogens to become more infectious. Cruz (R-Texas) in October tweeted that Fauci was lying and added: “It’s a crime to knowingly lie to Congress, so I asked AG [Merrick] Garland if he'd appoint a special prosecutor to investigate Fauci.“

Fauci said that the accusations are dangerous, not only to him, but the scientific community.

“It's easy to criticize, but they're really criticizing science because I represent science. That's dangerous,” he said. “To me, that's more dangerous than the slings and the arrows that get thrown at me. I'm not going to be around here forever, but science is going to be here forever.”

"I'm just going to do my job and I'm going to be saving lives and they're going to be lying," he added.

Fauci’s remarks have come under fire not only from Cruz, but other Republican lawmakers such as Sens. Rand Paul (Ky.) and Tom Cotton (Ark.), though NIH maintained it had not provided money for such research. Cruz and Cotton have pointed to an October letter highlighting specific grant funding from the NIH that aided a certain aspect of coronavirus research at the lab to bolster their claim that Fauci lied.

When asked if the recent accusations are a way for Republican lawmakers to use him as a scapegoat to deflect criticism from former President Donald Trump, Fauci said, “You have to be asleep not to figure that one out.”

Stumble out of the gate

Trump’s Senate picks stumble out of the gate

The former president’s endorsement doesn’t guarantee a glide path to the GOP nomination.

By NATALIE ALLISON

Donald Trump’s favorite in the Alabama Senate race is treading water. His pick in Pennsylvania just bowed out of the GOP primary after losing custody of his children. In Alaska and North Carolina, two other Trump-endorsed Senate candidates are behind in primary election polls.

Trump may still have an iron grip on the Republican Party, but the limits of his powers are being exposed in 2022 Senate primaries. A number of his preferred Senate candidates are discovering that the former president’s endorsement is no guarantee of success in a crowded primary, leaving Trump to decide just how much political capital to further expend on their behalf.

“I think that Trump voters are ready, willing and able to take his word on a particular candidate they don’t know much about,” said Gregg Keller, a Republican political strategist who maintains that a Trump endorsement is “highly effective.” “But if and when he has made political mistakes along those lines, it’s been on behalf of the wrong candidate or not at the right time.”

Trump has endorsed in 15 Senate contests to date. While roughly half are for incumbents who are expected to cruise to the GOP nomination, he’s also waded into other nomination fights where his imprimatur was once thought to be determinative. So far, it hasn’t worked out that way.

In Alabama, where Trump remains extremely popular, Rep. Mo Brooks has struggled despite Trump’s endorsement. Brooks, a veteran congressman who lost in a 2017 Senate primary bid, has raised less than half of the $3.7 million his primary opponent Katie Britt has received. Britt has also earned the endorsement of the state’s largest farm organization, the Alabama Farmers Federation — a group that represents one of Trump’s key constituencies.

Polls this month show Britt, a former chief of staff to retiring GOP Sen. Richard Shelby and a first-time candidate, neck and neck with Brooks.

Trump in recent months has expressed disappointment over Brooks’ performance in the race, concerns echoed by others in his circle, according to a source familiar with the conversations.

At a briefing with reporters this fall, Sen. Rick Scott (Fla.), chair of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, said it remains to be seen how crucial the Trump endorsement will be for candidates in 2022 primaries. Scott said earlier this year that he asked Trump to stay out of primary races beyond supporting incumbents, but was unsure if the former president would heed the suggestion.

Trump ignored that request in Alaska, where he has made a priority of ousting Sen. Lisa Murkowski, one of seven Senate Republicans who voted to convict him in his second impeachment trial — and the only one up for reelection in 2022.

A June Change Research poll showed Murkowski trailing in third place against Kelly Tshibaka, the former commissioner of the state’s Department of Administration. But despite Trump’s endorsement of her challenger, Murkowski had a 20-point lead in an October poll and has more than 10 times the amount of cash on hand.

In North Carolina, 52 percent of Republicans last month said the former president’s preference would make no difference in who they support, according to a Public Opinion Strategies poll conducted for Pat McCrory, the former governor whose opponent, Rep. Ted Budd, has the Trump endorsement.

Budd has been outraised by McCrory, who lost his reelection bid in 2016, and trails him in recent polls — McCrory’s internal polling shows him with a 15-point lead, while data from a pro-Budd super PAC has McCrory ahead by just 3 points.

Mark Walker, a conservative former congressman who is also seeking the GOP Senate nomination, has criticized Budd for his failure to command a lead after receiving both Trump’s backing and major funding from the Club for Growth’s super PAC, which plans to spend $10 million on Budd.

“They’ve made a commitment to already spend $3 million on TV because the Trump endorsement for Mr. Budd did not push the needle like it has in some other states,” Walker said during a radio interview with WBT in Charlotte in September. “At some point, people have to ask why.”

Budd’s campaign says its fundraising rapidly accelerated after the Trump endorsement in June, not just from small-dollar contributions but from donors who were previously uninterested in the campaign. Budd learned of the endorsement just minutes before Trump announced it onstage at the North Carolina Republican Party’s annual convention this summer, raising questions in state political circles about why Trump decided to support Budd so early in the race and while his name recognition remained low.

Jonathan Felts, a senior adviser to Budd’s campaign, said the Trump endorsement has been key to Budd’s ability to catch up with McCrory. They expected it would take from Budd’s May Senate campaign launch until at least March 2022 to close the fundraising and name ID gap between Budd and McCrory. Now, the campaign is nearly there, campaign officials say.

“What we had planned to do in 10 months we got done in six months, thanks to Donald Trump’s endorsement,” Felts said.

The downside, however, is that Budd’s backing from the polarizing former president risks turning off some moderates, a voting demographic Republicans in North Carolina and other competitive states need to win in November.

Trump has yet to endorse in Arizona, another swing state that is pivotal to the battle to capture the Senate majority. But he appeared at a fundraiser for candidate Blake Masters at Mar-a-Lago earlier this month — one day after Masters released a video declaring that “Trump won in 2020,” a statement made in an apparent attempt to secure Trump’s backing.

In recent polls, Masters trails well behind state Attorney General Mark Brnovich, whom Trump continues to publicly taunt for not doing enough to overturn Biden’s win in Arizona.

The first primaries of the year are still three months away — and Arizona’s is nine months away — so there’s time for Trump’s Senate endorsees to build enough momentum to overtake their opponents. At least one of them, retired football star Herschel Walker in Georgia, already has a wide lead and a considerable fundraising advantage in the GOP primary.

But the apparent lack of extensive vetting of some of the endorsed candidates could get in the way — in either the primary or the general. Walker has faced allegations of domestic violence; Sean Parnell, Trump’s pick in Pennsylvania, was also accused of abuse by his estranged wife before suspending his campaign on Monday after a judge ruled he would lose legal custody of his children.

Trump endorsed Parnell, who lost a 2020 bid for Congress, at the urging of his son, Donald Trump Jr., and without awareness of the domestic violence allegations made against him, according to multiple sources with knowledge of the situation.

“If he spent a little more time and resources vetting and researching where he can have an impact and a little bit less time s----posting, he could actually help his own legacy and move the ball forward,” said one Republican strategist.

Prior to Parnell’s departure from the race, Trump’s endorsement failed to scare off many potential GOP candidates. One of them, Jeff Bartos, made the protective orders taken out by Parnell’s wife a news story by publicly discussing them immediately after Trump announced his pick.

Parnell’s other opponent, Carla Sands, responded to the Trump endorsement by using $1 million of her money on an ad buy highlighting her work as a Trump administration economic adviser and ambassador to Denmark.

A GOP operative familiar with the dynamics in Pennsylvania noted that while Parnell’s child custody situation was unique, it proved that a Trump endorsement still doesn’t translate to “complete victory” for a flawed candidate — and other candidates believed it was worthwhile to remain in the race, despite Trump’s involvement.

“You’ve got to just fight the fight for the candidate you want to win,” the operative said. “It’s not like when Trump endorsed Sean Parnell we all packed up our bags and went home.”

Grifting

Michael Cohen says Trump is ‘grifting’ off the American people

The former attorney for Donald Trump also said he’s convinced the former president won’t run again.

By ALLIE BICE

Michael Cohen, former attorney for Donald Trump, said Sunday that the former president is “grifting off of the American people,” using the 2020 stolen election accusations as a fundraising motivator.

“One of the things Donald Trump has done is grift off of ‘the big lie‘ — that the election was stolen from him in 2020. It was not stolen from him,” Cohen told host Chuck Todd on NBC's “Meet the Press.”

Cohen said he was convinced that Trump, contrary to almost all expectations, won’t run in 2024 because a second defeat would be another unacceptable blow to his ego. “If he loses, and he will in 2024, what happens to the big lie? The big lie disappears,” Cohen said. “He can’t now be like the boy who cried wolf, oh, they stole it from me in 2020, they now stole it from me in 2024.”

Cohen added that Trump will likely appear to be running in 2024 “right to the very, very last second” and then step aside.

As far as the New York criminal investigation into Trump and his family business, Cohen said that the former president is “guilty of his own crimes,” though he didn’t elaborate. Cohen added that he was involved in “the inflation and deflation“ of Trump’s assets.

The investigation is coming to a head as Manhattan District Attorney Cy Vance Jr. heads into the final weeks of his term.

“My case is over. It was over when I had pled guilty,” said Cohen, who served more than a year in federal prison after pleading guilty to campaign finance violations, tax fraud, and bank fraud in 2018, Trump subsequently denounced him as a liar and a “bad lawyer and fraudster.”

“It was all part of one big, giant package,” Cohen said. “And it’s amazing that I’m the only one, you know, it’s amazing that I’m the only one that ended up doing prison, right, and indicted, incarcerated out of his entire group.”