Rapidly-evolving 18-day primary

‘No one planned for this’: The rapidly-evolving 18-day primary to replace Platner

The rocket primary for Democrats' Maine Senate pick is on – and the candidates are shaping their strategies in real time.

By Alec Hernandez, Andrew Howard, Jessica Piper and Erin Doherty

Nirav Shah’s first event back on the campaign trail was coming together quickly. Staffers shepherded supporters into a nearly-empty office space, and an intrepid group of volunteers, armed with masking tape and markers, put the finishing touches on familiar campaign signs that suddenly needed an update.

Forming in a makeshift assembly line, they methodically taped over the word “governor” and wrote “Senate” in its place. Erin Evans, 56, of Portland, arrived with her own handmade poster: she had used colored duct tape to mask what once was her “Graham Platner for Senate” yard sign, covering the oysterman’s name with an all-caps “NIRAV.”

The DIY-campaigning is a symptom of the moment in which Maine Democrats now find themselves. Platner, who ended his campaign Wednesday night, had energized voters who were hungry for a fighter to unseat GOP Sen. Susan Collins. But support for Platner’s campaign crumbled after POLITICO reported a woman he used to date accused him of sexual assault — an allegation which he denies.

His old supporters are now trying to find a new political home in the two-and-a-half short weeks during which Maine Democrats must name a replacement for their former Senate hopeful. And voters’ options, for the most part, are a flurry of familiar faces who unsuccessfully mounted campaigns for office already this year and are now scrambling for a second chance.“Campaigns are always like building the plane while you’re flying it, but this is like building it while falling out of a helicopter,” said a staffer working on one of the campaigns who was granted anonymity to candidly discuss the situation.

The homemade signs at Shah’s event were just one example of how fast things are moving in Maine: the WiFi network available at his kickoff event was still labeled “ShahForGovernor.”

Several of the Democrats vying to replace Platner have already run against each other in a nearly-identical field in this year’s June primaries. Whoever emerges will face Collins, a battle-tested five-term incumbent with more than $10 million cash in the bank who won her last race by eight points even as President Donald Trump lost the state by nine. The race’s result will play a pivotal role in Senate control.

Three of the unsuccessful candidates for governor are vying for the open spot on the ballot, including former Maine Senate President Troy Jackson, Secretary of State Shenna Bellows, and Shah, who was the former top Pine Tree State public health official. All three won at least 20 percent of the primary vote just one month ago. Two other candidates, Jordan Wood and Paige Loud, fell short in the Democratic primary to succeed retiring Rep. Jared Golden (D-Maine) in his battleground seat. And then there’s Maine Beer Company founder Dan Kleban — who initially ran for the Senate but bowed out of the race to back Gov. Janet Mills before she, too, dropped out as Platner asserted a massive polling and fundraising lead.

These hopefuls have already aired their political differences with each other over the course of the last year, but the pseudo-primary for the Senate will come with a far harsher — and nationalized — spotlight in a majorly truncated period of time.

The race to replace Platner on the ballot began in earnest on Thursday, with several candidates actively jumping into the race and their advisers scrambling to figure out how to pay for staff, run ads, and identify who they are even competing against — with scant details from a state party that is also piecing things together on the fly.

Said an adviser on another campaign: “No one planned for this. Even anyone that thought, ‘okay, Graham might be in trouble’ … the idea that anyone actually put a ton of planning into this scenario seems unlikely.”

By July 27, 600 delegates must be selected and then decide on a candidate to replace Platner via an unprecedented nominating convention. Five hundred of them will be chosen by the state’s 16 county parties later this month at individual county meetings, with the number of delegates allocated to each county based on population. Delegates will be officially unpledged to any candidate at the convention, leading to what could be a raucous and unpredictable free-for-all.

The process for choosing delegates has not been formally announced, although a meeting announcement obtained by POLITICO for the Oxford County Democrats said it was planning a county caucus on July 19 with all Democrats invited.

It’s all taking place in the most important state for Senate Democrats this cycle. The party’s road to a Senate majority runs directly through Maine, where Collins is the only Republican running for reelection in a state carried by former Vice President Kamala Harris in 2024.

“It’s gonna be crazy,” said Adam Cote, a longtime Maine Democrat who lost to Mills in the 2018 primary for governor, before referencing an ugly contested convention that haunts Democrats more than a half-century later: “Geez, I hope it doesn’t turn into the ’68 convention in Chicago.”

The candidates previously all faced off in ranked-choice voting primaries, an election system that limited some of the negative campaigning and deep factional divides that have played out in other primary contests across the country this year as candidates sought to at least place second with voters. In the gubernatorial primary, Jackson and Bellows had a loose alliance with eventual winner Hannah Pingree, and were backed by Platner as his first and second picks — though they both finished behind Shah.

All the newly minted Senate candidates shunned Platner as his campaign imploded, and Democrats both nationally and in Maine turned their backs on him. But now they have to thread the needle of keeping their disgraced former ticket-topper at arms-length while winning over the supporters who rocketed the progressive oysterman to a resounding primary win — in spite of a series of scandals.

Many of Platner’s former supporters accepted that he needed to step down — but in interviews Thursday, they weren’t exactly excited about their new options in the fast-shaping field.

“I’m not particularly thrilled about any of the candidates right now,” said Andrew Estey, 42, of Brunswick, who worked as a volunteer photographer for Platner’s campaign. He also criticized the renominating process that the Maine Democratic Party proposed to its members on Wednesday.

That plan is ultimately contingent on Platner not only stepping aside, but actively withdrawing his candidacy with the secretary of state’s office before the July 13 deadline. Platner told campaign staff in an all-hands meeting on Wednesday evening that he plans to submit the paperwork on Monday, according to a person on the call who was granted anonymity to share internal campaign conversations. Morris Katz, one of Platner’s top political advisers, confirmed in a Thursday social media post that the campaign would, in fact, submit the paperwork to officially withdraw in time.

Shah, flanked by several dozen supporters flashing handmade signs, launched his campaign on Thursday with introductory remarks from two former Platner volunteers who emphasized their newly-placed trust in the former public health official — a near-explicit acknowledgement that Shah is seeking to tie himself to Platner’s populist platform.

The candidate ticked through his progressive policy alignments with Platner: his support for Medicare for All, his pledge to not accept money from AIPAC, and his goal to change the federal corporate tax structure.

The politics, though, have to come without their former standard-bearer: “I would not accept an endorsement from Graham, nor have I sought one,” Shah told reporters following his remarks at the event.

Persuading Platner’s base will be a core strategy for all of the new Senate hopefuls who are building out their strategies in real time. But each campaign also has its own spate of challenges to navigate in order to advance to the general election to face Collins.

Jackson, who was a close Platner ally during the primary and shared a political benefactor in Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), will have to distance himself from the oysterman. On Wednesday, he deleted several old posts praising Platner from his X account, and a spokesperson told POLITICO that Jackson “wanted to make [it] clear” he no longer supported him.

On Thursday, Jackson tried to turn attention back to the grassroots by unveiling a slate of over 50 endorsements — mostly from state lawmakers. He’s also secured backing from Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.) and Our Revolution, the Sanders-aligned progressive organization. .

Bellows, the state’s secretary of state, will have to contend with the fact that she ran against Collins for Senate in 2014 and lost badly. A person close to Bellows, granted anonymity to speak candidly about her campaign, said that she would not have entered the race if she did not think she was the best candidate to take on Collins this time around, citing her statewide experience.

Unlike the other former statewide candidates, Kleban is not as well-known to the Democratic base. He has more work to do to build a campaign infrastructure from scratch (though he maintained a handful of advisers from his Senate bid), while several of his opponents can reactivate lists of supporters and staff that were operating through Maine’s June 9 primary. A person close to him granted anonymity to discuss internal strategy said Kleban hopes to build a base quickly by mirroring Platner’s fast-paced campaign and frequent town halls.

“Obviously, this is a very truncated period. But to the extent that he can do those sorts of things, he plans to,” the person said. “It’s going to be pretty aggressive.”