Rating surges

Newsom’s favorability rating surges in California

An anti-Trump bump is boosting Newsom and California Democrats in the blue state.

By Jeremy B. White

One year after Donald Trump’s return to the White House demoralized California Democrats, Gavin Newsom and allies are riding anti-Trump sentiment to a polling rebound.

A new survey from the Public Policy Institute of California finds that both the governor, a likely presidential candidate, and the heavily Democratic Legislature surged to majority support in the final months of this year. The approval jump comes after Newsom and fellow Democrats championed a gerrymandered new House map explicitly to counter Trump in next year’s midterm elections.

“Folks are in a post-Proposition 50 state of mind,” said Mark Baldassare, the institute’s polling director. “The public feels that the governor and Legislature’s interests are aligned more with theirs than the president and Congress and the Supreme Court, for that matter.”

Newsom’s favorability rating jumped 10 percentage points over the course of the year, from 46 percent in June to 56 percent this month. The Legislature’s standing improved by 8 points in the same time period, reaching a 53 percent majority.

And for the first time since 2021, a slim majority of voters — 51 percent — said, in consecutive months, that California is on the right track. Behind that reversal was more optimism among independent voters and a double-digit confidence boost among Democratic voters, who also reported far higher enthusiasm than their Republican counterparts to vote in the upcoming midterms. That likely reflects the reality of new maps boosting Democrats and shrinking the GOP’s competitiveness.

The results paint a picture of a Democratic electorate emerging from the doldrums as its leaders adopt a more aggressive stance toward Trump, culminating in the landslide victory last month of their Proposition 50 redistricting ballot initiative.

California Democrats also enjoy support from the independent voters who compose a quarter of the state’s electorate, the poll found. Nearly two-thirds said voter approval of gerrymandered congressional districts was “mostly a good thing,” and a majority said the November special election was worth its $251 million price tag.

At the start of the year, legislative Democrats vowed a focus on affordability and Newsom sought a more diplomatic approach toward the White House as the party reeled from crushing election defeats. But that shifted as Trump pursued policies that are anathema to many Californians, from sweeping immigration raids to deep spending cuts.

Now Newsom is touting the party’s Prop 50 win, along with Democratic victories across the country last month, as evidence the party is “in its ascendancy.”

The governor and other California Democrats are still grappling with stubborn political liabilities. Voters of every affiliation overwhelmingly called the state too expensive — housing in particular.

But a plurality of voters and a majority of Democrats said the most important issue facing the country is “political extremism or threats to democracy,” themes Newsom has emphasized as he warns the country is sliding into authoritarianism.