Overperformed

Despite loss, Democrats overperformed in bright red Tennessee House race

Aftyn Behn is on pace to significantly outperform Vice President Kamala Harris in the Nashville area district Tuesday night.

By Andrew Howard

Democrats notched an off-cycle achievement Tuesday night, as Tennessee state lawmaker Aftyn Behn sliced into President Donald Trump’s double-digit victory in a deep-red House district. It marked the latest demonstration of voters’ dissatisfaction with Republicans’ grip on power as the parties head into next year’s pivotal midterms.

With 95 percent of the vote in, Behn was behind Republican Matt Van Epps 54 percent to 45 percent in the closely watched special election Tuesday.

The narrow margin gave Democrats cause to celebrate as they fight to retake the House next year. And it spelled trouble for Speaker Mike Johnson’s efforts to retain his slim majority: Even though Van Epps won, the Republican significantly underperformed Trump’s 22-point rout in the district last year as Behn lured voters with a well-funded campaign focused singularly on affordability.

Democrats, projecting confidence after their Election Day overperformance last month throughout the country, quickly highlighted the thinner-than-usual margin as a sign of their strength heading into next year’s midterms, when they must net three seats to seize control over the House.

“This was a district that Trump won handedly, and he and his billionaire friends had to spend millions of dollars to bolster their candidate of choice,” Behn said during an interview on CNN shortly before the network called the race.

Trump hailed the victory as “BIG Congressional WIN,” in a post on Truth Social. “The Radical Left Democrats threw everything at him, including Millions of Dollars. Another great night for the Republican Party!!!”

It’s not often that a single House race garners so much national money and attention, but the unusual timing — an off-cycle election to fill a vacancy, sandwiched between Thanksgiving and Christmas — boosted its relevance as both parties anxiously prepare for their midterm showdown.

Republican and Democratic super PACs flooded the airwaves in the home stretch, with GOP groups outspending Democratic ones $3.1 million to $2.3 million.

Republican ads sought to tie Behn to culture war issues, including her support for defunding police departments and transgender surgeries. Her ads mostly focused on affordability and health care, but spent some airtime attacking Van Epps over the release of the Epstein files, with one ad from an outside group depicting her opponent as a puppet.

Trump, recognizing the gravity of a potential loss in a deep red state, got involved in the race too.

He supported Van Epps in the competitive primary and dialing into the contest during its final days — literally addressing rally-goers over Speaker Mike Johnson’s cell phone in a joint appeal to Tennesseans to keep the seat red. But even with Trump’s support, Van Epp’s campaign and the GOP outside groups remained more focused on hitting Behn than touting Republican policies like the megabill.

“Running from Trump is how you lose. Running with Trump is how you win,” Van Epps said in his victory speech.

Democrats tapped into their own fire power. Former Vice President Kamala Harris made her first post-election stump speech to support Behn. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio Cortez (D-N.Y.) and former Vice President Al Gore — a Tennessean — closed out the race during a tele-rally Monday.

Democrats hailed Behn’s steadfast commitment to talking about affordability and not taking her rival’s bait — a strategy they want to see replicated across the country next year.

“Aftyn Behn’s overperformance in this Trump +22 district is historic and a flashing warning sign for Republicans heading into the midterms,” Democratic National Committee Chair Ken Martin said in a statement. “Aftyn centered her campaign on lowering grocery, housing, and health care costs for Tennessee families.”

Despite their exuberance, Van Epps’ win is a boon for Johnson, who is managing a razor-thin majority in the House, where there are still two vacancies in Democratic-leaning seats. But among GOP members of Congress, the mood heading into the election was one of concern.

“If our victory margin is single digits, the conference may come unhinged,” one senior House Republican told POLITICO ahead of the race.

As the midterm arguments continue to focus broadly on the national landscape, Democrats see Behn’s performance in the ruby-red district as a sign they can flip more than enough seats to overtake the House.

“It’s an insane result. And the Republicans in Congress and this White House have shown zero signs of being able to stop the bleeding. It’s going to get worse for them before it gets better,” said Jason Bresler, a strategist who served as the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s political director in 2018.

To that end, they’re hoping to unseat Rep. Andy Ogles in the neighboring 5th District, which went for Trump by 18 points last year, making it more favorable for the party. They already have a strong candidate who tops fundraising lists.

And while she didn’t emerge victorious, her focus on affordability and ability to reach rural voters in a geographically vast district, is something Democrats will hope to replicate across the map next year.

“Aftyn Behn wants one thing: to lower your costs,” said one of Behn’s closing ads in the race, showing her focus on the topic.

Republicans — at least publicly — are not reading too far into the margin. Special elections generally favor Democrats, and this race’s post-Thanksgiving timing, they say, was bound to decrease turnout.

And while Trump hosted a few virtual rallies for Van Epps, he never campaigned inside the district, and the GOP remains confident Trump will hit the trail ahead of the midterms.

Nevertheless, House Republicans privately bemoaned the results.

Speaker Mike Johnson leadership’s team was bracing for a tighter than comfortable race, and the single digit margin was a hard pill to swallow after national Republicans raced to rescue Van Epps in the final days.

“It was too close,” said one House GOP leadership aide.

“Tonight is a sign that 2026 is going to be a bitch of an election cycle,” said another person, granted anonymity to freely discuss the election. “Republicans can survive if we play team and the Trump administration officials play smart. Neither is certain.”