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July 31, 2025

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RFK Jr.’s MAHA Movement Is on a Collision Course With Trump’s EPA

The agency’s moves are dooming Kennedy’s quest to make people healthier—and his fans are very unhappy.

Dylan Scott

On a Friday evening this July, the Trump administration announced it would lay off all of the health research scientists at the Environmental Protection Agency. Hundreds of investigators who try to understand how toxic pollution affects the human body would be gone.

That wasn’t a surprise. The EPA—which had a founding mission to protect “the air we breathe and the water we drink,” as President Richard Nixon put it—has been busy dismantling policies that are in place to ensure environmental and public health.

This week, the agency announced it would seek to repeal its recognition of climate change as a threat to human health, potentially limiting the government’s ability to regulate greenhouse gases. EPA administrator Lee Zeldin has relaxed existing standards for mercury and lead pollution—two toxins that can lead to developmental problems in children. And the EPA has postponed its implementation of new Biden-era regulations that were supposed to reduce the amount of dangerous chemicals Americans are exposed to.

Meanwhile, House Republicans are attempting to grant widespread liability relief to pesticide companies and restrict EPA regulation of PFAS “forever chemicals” through provisions that have been tucked into the spending bills currently moving through Congress. (Democrats, for their part, have offered opposing legislation that would protect an individual’s right to sue over any harm from pesticides.)

This collective assault upon America’s environmental regulations targets not just the environment, but human health as well. Which means it sits oddly with the work of another Trump official whose office at the Department of Health and Human Services is just a 15-minute walk from EPA headquarters: Robert F. Kennedy Jr, whose Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) movement seeks to, obviously, make Americans healthier.

But Kennedy hasn’t spoken up about these contradictions—and his supporters are beginning to notice.

In response to the pro-pesticide industry proposals in Congress, MAHA leaders wrote a letter to Kennedy and Zeldin voicing opposition to a bill that they believe “would ensure that Americans have no power to prevent pesticide exposure, and no path to justice after harm occurs.” In the letter, they also urged the EPA to ban two pesticides—atrazine and glyphosate—that have been linked to birth defects and liver and kidney problems.

“These toxic substances are in our food, rain, air, and water, and most disturbingly, in our children’s bodies,” the MAHA letter says. “It is time to take a firm stand.”

Kennedy is no stranger to these issues: Earlier this year, the Trump administration’s Make America Healthy Again Commission report, which sought to document and explain the dramatic increase in chronic diseases like obesity among US children, identified both chemicals as health risks. Zeldin, however, has been working to deregulate both atrazine and glyphosate in his first few months leading the EPA.

“It is completely contrary to MAHA to relax regulations on PFAS and many different chemicals. We are calling upon them and to reverse some of these actions that [the administration] is taking or seemingly may allow,” said Zen Honeycutt, one of the letter signers and the founder of the MAHA-aligned group Moms Across America. “We are extremely disappointed with some of the actions taken by this administration to protect the polluters and the pesticide companies.”

“In the case of Kennedy, you have someone that has spent his life thinking about public health, but seems unable or disinterested in stopping what’s going on.”

MAHA burst onto the political scene as part of Kennedy’s 2024 presidential campaign. It has become a vehicle for public health concerns, some exceedingly mainstream (like addressing America’s ultra-processed food and reducing pollution) and some of them very much outside of it (such as undermining the effectiveness of vaccines). After dropping his own candidacy, Kennedy joined forces with Trump, and ended up running the nation’s most important health agency.

But now that he’s in office, he and the movement he leads are running into the challenges of making change—and the unavoidable reality that MAHA has allied with a president and an agenda that is often in direct opposition to their own.

“In the case of Lee Zeldin, you have someone who’s doing incredibly consequential actions and is indifferent to the impact on public health,” said Jeremy Symons, senior adviser to the Environmental Protection Network and a former adviser to the EPA during the Clinton administration. “In the case of Kennedy, you have someone that has spent his life thinking about public health, but seems unable or disinterested in stopping what’s going on.”

Kennedy has successfully nabbed voluntary industry commitments to phase out certain dyes from American food products. He has overhauled the government’s vaccine policy, and one state has already followed his lead in banning fluoride from its drinking water. But his ambitions to reduce the sheer number of toxins that leach into America’s children in their most vulnerable years are being stymied by an EPA and a Republican-controlled Congress with very different priorities.

“Food dyes are not as consequential as pesticides for food manufacturers. The ingredients they put into the food contaminate the food,” Honeycutt said. “That issue is a much larger issue. That is the farmers, and changing farming practices takes longer.”

To Kennedy’s credit, these are issues he’d apparently like to tackle—if he could. His HHS report earlier this year pointed out that “studies have raised concerns about possible links between some of these products and adverse health outcomes, especially in children.” Specific ingredients in pesticides have been associated with cancer, inflammation, metabolic problems and more. But the EPA, meanwhile, has reversed regulations and stymied research for those same substances.

The EPA has proposed easing restrictions on the amount of the herbicide atrazine that can be permitted in the nation’s lakes and streams. Human and animal studies have associated exposure to atrazine with birth defects, kidney and liver diseases, and problems with metabolism; the evidence, however, remains limited and the MAHA report called for further independent research. The EPA has also moved to block states from putting any new limits on or requiring any public disclosures for glyphosate, a herbicide that the MAHA report says has been linked to a wide range of health problems. Zeldin also postponed Biden-era plans to take action on chlorpyrifos, a common insecticide increasingly associated with development problems in kids.

The EPA has also been slow to move on microplastics and PFAS, both substances of growing concern among scientists and the general public. These invisible but omnipresent chemicals are a priority for the MAHA movement, singled out in the White House report for further study and policymaking. The EPA, though, has delayed implementing a new standard to limit PFAS in drinking water and announced it would consider whether to raise the limits of acceptable PFAS levels in community water systems, while also slashing funding for more research on the substance’s health effects.

Bisphenols (also known as BPA) and phthalates are two other common materials used in plastic production and food packaging, which have also been identified by researchers as likely dangerous because of their ability to disrupt hormone and reproductive function. The MAHA movement singles them out for further study and possible restrictions, but the EPA has delayed safety studies for both.

The US is even moving backward on pollutants like mercury and lead, for which the scientific evidence of their harms is undisputed. They are toxins that regulators have actually taken steps over the decades to reduce exposure, through banning the use of lead paint, strictly limiting mercury levels, etc. Yet over the past few months, the EPA has moved to grant exemptions to coal power plants and chemical manufacturers that would allow more mercury pollution, while cutting monitoring for lead exposures.

This is a long list of apparent contradictions and we’re barely six months into Trump’s term. How long can the contradictions pile up without Kennedy challenging Zeldin directly?

We reached out to HHS to see if we could get Kennedy’s perspective on any of this. In response, an agency spokesperson sent a written statement: “Secretary Kennedy and HHS are committed to investigating any potential root causes of the chronic disease epidemic, including environmental factors and toxic chemicals,” the spokesperson wrote. “The Secretary continues to engage with federal partners, including the EPA, to ensure that federal actions align with the latest gold standard science and the public health priorities identified in the MAHA report.”

But as the EPA continues to roll back environmental protections despite the reassurances that the administration is aligned on MAHA, Kennedy’s constituents are growing impatient.

“Our children’s lives and futures are non-negotiables, and claims from the industry of ‘safe’ levels of exposure ignore the impacts of cumulative exposure and the reality of serious, evidence-backed risks,” the MAHA movement’s recent letter says. “The industry’s call for delay or inaction is completely unacceptable—immediate and decisive action is needed now and is long overdue.”

The conflict between the two agencies’ agendas has been striking: The EPA, under Zeldin, is allied with the industries it regulates and plans to deregulate as much as possible. HHS, on the other hand, is focused on its vision of making the environment safer in order to improve people’s health—a goal that will inevitably require more regulations that require companies to restrict their use of certain compounds that prove to be dangerous to human health.

Trump himself has said the two sides are going to have to work together and figure things out, Honeycutt noted—words that she is taking to heart for now. And the movement’s leaders recognize that they are now in the business not of outside agitation but of working within the system to try to change it. “We’re not always going to be happy,” Honeycutt said.

But Kennedy may be playing the weaker hand: Zeldin and his agency hold obvious advantages, and in a fight between HHS and EPA, EPA will likely win—unless, perhaps, Trump himself steps in.

The biggest reason is a matter of authority: The EPA has the responsibility to regulate pollution, while Kennedy’s HHS does not. The federal health agency can offer funding to state and local health departments to advance its policy goals, but it has effectively no regulatory authority when it comes to the dangerous substances identified in the MAHA report’s section on chemical toxins. The EPA, on the other hand, has broad discretion to regulate the chemicals that industries pump into the American environment—or not.

The difference between the leadership at the two agencies is also stark: Kennedy is a former lifelong Democrat who has never held a government position; Zeldin is a seasoned GOP operator who served four terms in the US House. Kennedy has brought in an assortment of unconventional personnel at HHS, many with skepticism about mainstream science and who are viewed dubiously by the industries they oversee. At the EPA, representatives of long-entrenched polluting interests have commandeered powerful positions: Nancy Beck, a former scientist at the American Chemistry Council, the chemical manufacturing industry’s trade association, for example, is now holding the position overseeing chemical safety and pollution prevention.

The perception within the industry, according to insiders who spoke with Vox, is that Kennedy is, well, a lightweight. “From the perspective of the polluter takeover of EPA, Kennedy is largely seen as inconsequential and ineffective. He’s playing wiffle ball,” Symons said. “Kennedy talks a good game, but watch carefully what’s happening at EPA and all the favors being given to corporate polluters that are going to do far more damage than anything.”

“The food we eat, the water we drink, and the air we breathe are going to get more toxic and more dangerous because of what’s happening in EPA,” Symons told Vox.

When it comes to jockeying for influence, Zeldin also enjoys more powerful friends in the Republican Party. He has relationships with conservative politicians and advocacy groups across the nation. Almost all of the Republican state attorneys general, for example, are motivated to roll back environmental regulations because it’s compatible with their priorities in their respective states.

“A lot of this is being driven by polluter states, red states with Republican attorneys general,” Symons said.

And, as evidenced by the pesticide liability relief legislation in Congress that prompted MAHA’s letter to Kennedy and Zeldin, Republicans in the House and Senate remain much more allied with corporate interests—an alliance that has stood for decades—than with the public health movement that has only recently been brought inside the broader Make America Great Again coalition.

It is a bitter irony for a movement that has often called out corporate influence and corruption for the government’s failures to protect public health.

The White House’s own MAHA report cites the influence of big businesses to explain why the chronic disease crisis has grown so dire; in particular, the report says, “as a result of this influence, the regulatory environment surrounding the chemical industry may reflect a consideration of its interests.”

MAHA’s leaders aren’t running for the hills yet; Honeycutt said she urges her members not to vilify Kennedy or Trump for failing to make progress on certain issues. But they sense they’re losing control of the agenda on the environment, forcing difficult questions onto the movement just a few months after it attained serious power in Washington.

“As for MAHA organizations, they must decide whether they are to become appendages of the Republican party or coalesce into an effective, independent political force,” Charles Eisenstein, a wellness author who was a senior adviser to Kennedy’s presidential campaign, wrote for Children’s Health Defense, a once-fringe group with ties to Kennedy. “To do that, the movement must hold Republicans accountable for undermining public health with policies like liability shields. It must not sacrifice its core priorities to curry short-term favor with the Republican establishment.”

The MAHA-MAGA political alliance is new and tenuous—many MAHA followers voted for President Barack Obama, Eisenstein points out—and it may not be permanent.

And some fractures are already apparent: Honeycutt, the leader of Moms Across America and a signer of the MAHA movement’s letter to Kennedy, told Vox that her own members have told her directly that they are considering voting for Democrats in the next election. Even as she urges MAHA to keep the faith, Honeycutt said that Republicans risk alienating this enthusiastic part of their coalition by going hog wild on environmental deregulation. Her group is in the process of pulling together a legislative scorecard to hold lawmakers to account.

“There could be dire consequences for the midterm elections, if they don’t realize,” she said. “We don’t care if you’re a Republican or Democrat. We will support whoever supports us.”

Turn Cannon’s ruling against the Trump administration’s interests

Criminal defendant challenging Alina Habba’s appointment takes a page from Aileen Cannon’s playbook

The case is one of the first efforts to turn Cannon’s ruling against the Trump administration’s interests.

By Ry Rivard and Kyle Cheney

A criminal defendant seeking to torpedo President Donald Trump’s top federal prosecutor in New Jersey is drawing inspiration from an unusual source: U.S. District Judge Aileen Cannon.

The defendant, Julien Giraud Jr., argues that the Trump appointee’s bombshell ruling last summer dismissing a federal criminal case against Trump by finding that special counsel Jack Smith’s appointment was unconstitutional applies equally to Trump’s temporary U.S. attorney pick, Alina Habba.

Giraud’s attorney Thomas Mirigliano says the workaround Trump used to keep Habba in place after a 120-day interim appointment expired directly conflicts with Cannon’s ruling.

“As Judge Cannon explained in Trump, when executive officials deliberately engineer an appointment in violation of statutory and constitutional mandates, the only effective remedy is dismissal or, at the very least, disqualification of the unconstitutionally appointed officer and her subordinates,” Mirigliano wrote in a filing Wednesday.

Mirigliano’s bid is a long shot, meant to spare his client from further prosecution for gun and drug crimes that were brought by a grand jury and filed in 2024 when there was no uncertainty about the leadership of the U.S. attorney’s office. But it’s one of the first efforts to turn Cannon’s ruling against the Trump administration’s interests.

The case, which is pending before U.S. District Judge Matthew Brann, an Obama appointee based in Pennsylvania, challenges Habba’s authority to run the office and prosecute criminal cases. Brann is not yet sold that questions around Habba’s appointment should derail ongoing prosecutions that have largely been carried out by assistant U.S. attorneys. However, the issue has roiled federal criminal cases in New Jersey while the matter remains unresolved.

Cannon last summer concluded in a 93-page ruling that Smith’s appointment violated the Appointments Clause of the Constitution and, in turn, she dismissed the federal criminal case against Trump charging him with amassing highly sensitive national security secrets at Mar-a-Lago and then obstructing government efforts to reclaim them.

Though Smith appealed Cannon’s ruling, the case was ultimately dropped after Trump won the 2024 election, so the Atlanta-based 11th Circuit Court of Appeals never ruled on the matter. Cannon’s ruling itself does not bind any other court, but Brann could consider it as he weighs Giraud’s argument.

Cannon’s ruling doesn’t deal directly with the roundabout way Trump maneuvered to keep Habba in her role. But her ruling made broad assertions about limitations on presidential appointment powers.

“It is undisputed, and correct, that all United States Attorneys (93 currently) have been appointed by the President and confirmed by the Senate throughout our Nation’s history, except that Congress has permitted the Attorney General to appoint interim United States Attorneys with specific restrictions,” Cannon ruled.

Mirigliano argues that the Trump administration has gone around that system in a way that is irregular and unconstitutional by appointing Habba after a 120-day interim term expired.

The Justice Department in a Wednesday night legal filing said the repeated reliance on Cannon was “misplaced” because Cannon’s ruling was focused on the powers of a special counsel.

“Nothing like that occurred here,” the DOJ wrote. “The office of United States Attorney, and the position of First Assistant U.S. Attorney to which Ms. Habba was lawfully designated, are well established and subject to the plenary authority and control of the Attorney General.”

The Justice Department, while arguing Habba was rightfully made acting U.S. attorney, also has a fallback argument that criminal cases shouldn’t be tossed even if the court finds Habba’s appointment unconstitutional. The department contends Habba can “do anything the U.S. Attorney can do” because Attorney General Pam Bondi delegated her as a “special attorney.”

Gaza famine

McBride blames Netanyahu for Gaza famine

Rep. Sarah McBride told POLITICO that the Israeli prime minister is responsible for the humanitarian crisis in Gaza.

By Cheyanne M. Daniels

Rep. Sarah McBride blamed Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for the humanitarian crisis in Gaza, saying his government has a responsibility for “facilitating the conditions.”

In an interview with POLITICO’s Dasha Burns for “The Conversation” podcast, McBride (D-Del.) condemned Israel’s blockade policies as the driving force behind the famine unfolding in the Middle East.

“Look, Hamas committed a horrific terrorist attack on Oct. 7th, but Israel is not without agency here,” McBride told Burns. “The responsibility for the famine that we are seeing right now, that responsibility rests on the Netanyahu government for allowing the conditions, for facilitating the conditions with the aid blockade that have resulted in the death that we’re seeing right now.”

“And the responsibility lies with them to fully remedy this,” she added.

Over the last few weeks, images of dead and malnourished children in Gaza have sparked outrage and concern from world leaders. Netanyahu has denied starvation is happening, instead arguing the claims are Hamas propaganda. President Donald Trump, in a rare dissent from Netanyahu, has said “real starvation” is happening in the strip.

But Trump has largely stuck with Israel. On Thursday, he posted on social media that “the fastest way to end the Humanitarian Crises in Gaza is for Hamas to SURRENDER AND RELEASE THE HOSTAGES!!!”

Democrats in Congress have condemned the Israeli blockade and called for the Trump administration to intervene, as international relief groups warn the dire situation will only worsen if aid continues to be withheld from the area.

“I think the outrage that you are seeing on both sides of the political aisle here and both sides at the political divide demonstrate that what is happening, if it doesn’t change, will not only undermine the U.S. and Israel’s relationship, but it could get to a point where there is such widespread opposition that the dynamic is irretrievable,” McBride said in the interview, which was conducted on Wednesday.

McBride added that there are steps that could be taken to end the “immoral” and “preventable” starvation of children. She called for the United Nations to be “completely allowed” to operate aid distribution. She also said a pause in the war is not enough — a full ceasefire needs to be reached, freeing hostages and paving the way for “sustainable peace.” And, she added, a two-state solution must be negotiated.

The full interview with McBride is available on Sunday’s episode of “The Conversation.”

CA governor's race

‘A Democrat bloodbath’: With Kamala Harris out of CA governor's race, an intraparty battle begins

Five ways Harris’ move is upending the contest.

By Dustin Gardiner and Blake Jones

Kamala Harris’ decision not to enter the governor’s race is an immense victory for her would-be Democratic opponents, unlocking troves of donors who had been waiting for her announcement and voters who almost universally know the former vice president.

From Katie Porter’s big moment to the field-wide scramble for cash and Republicans losing their foil, here are five ways Harris’ move is upending the contest:

Porter’s in command: No one is poised to benefit more than Porter, who shares an overlapping base of national benefactors and has performed better than all Democrats but Harris in public polling of the race.

Porter’s camp was quick on Wednesday to reup spring polling that suggests she has the support of 36 percent of likely primary voters. The survey, conducted by GBAO Strategies, found that Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis and former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa tied as the second most popular Democrats — though they trail Porter by double digits.

Other prominent Democrats in the race, including former state Senate leader Toni Atkins and former Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra, were trailing in the lower single digits.

Porter, a former representative from Orange County, could face a hurdle attracting support within the Democratic Party establishment. She’s often cut against the grain within the party and had few close allies on Capitol Hill. But that might not be the biggest handicap in an election cycle where voters are eager for “change” — provided Porter can seize the anti-status-quo label.

The fundraising freeze thaws: Campaigns have already begun blowing up the phones of large-dollar donors who were waiting to contribute until Harris made a call. Former Controller Betty Yee, chatting with Playbook before donor meetings in Southern California, said Wednesday her campaign was reaching out to potential contributors in the Bay Area where she and Harris both share a base.

“We started to see some movement a couple weeks ago but, I think until she really made her definitive decision, it was still a lot of people on the fence just seeing how the field would solidify,” said Yee. “We do have some donors in common that I think we’re going to definitely see some movement now in California and nationally.”

State Superintendent Tony Thurmond, who’s from the East Bay, told Playbook people in his overlapping network will feel freer now to pick a horse in the race. He also said he was grateful that Harris made a decision before several labor unions — which supported his past runs for office — vote on primary endorsements this fall, even if it will be difficult for any one candidate to secure the majorities needed to get formal labor nods before next year’s run-off.

“It’s good that the vice president made her announcement now, rather than waiting any longer to give those organizations time to hear from the candidates and to vet the candidates,” he said.

Republicans lost their foil: Republicans desperately wanted to run against Harris on the November 2026 ballot. Even if they faced long odds of defeating her, GOP insiders hoped the contest would provide the party with a fundraising and messaging vehicle.

“Barely anyone is less representative of change than Kamala Harris,” quipped Steve Hilton, a former Fox News host and Republican candidate for governor. “I’ve always thought that (she) would be extremely beatable in the general election.”

Now, the challenge for Hilton and the other major Republican in the race — Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco — isn’t beating up on Harris, but convincing voters that they are the best candidates to fix California’s biggest problems, from the soaring cost of living to the state’s repeated budget deficits.

Bianco, who had previously said he’d love for Harris to run due to her weaknesses, told Playbook on Wednesday that his comments were simply an exercise in “reverse psychology.”

“It was like, yeah, I’ll try and convince her that she’s going to be the worst thing for California,” said Bianco, “but the reality is, I’m very happy that she’s no longer in it.”

Democrats with lower name identification than Harris, he argued, “are all going to have to fight with each other to say who’s responsible for putting us where we are, and this is going to be, I believe, a Democrat bloodbath.”

Richard Grenell, a special envoy to President Donald Trump, previously said he was considering running if Harris got in, but didn’t respond to a text message inquiring about his plans following the former vice president’s announcement. And Stephen Cloobeck, a Democratic entrepreneur who is running but has sharply criticized Harris, remarked to Playbook that he “won’t have the pleasure” of debating her.

Caruso is the biggest unknown: Billionaire mall magnate Rick Caruso has considered running for the office since losing the last Los Angeles mayoral election to Karen Bass. But his team declined to comment on whether Harris’ decision would affect his calculations.

A Republican-turned-Democrat, Caruso has been floated as a moderate, business-aligned candidate who could capture angst at the political establishment and old guard Democrats. Insiders are watching to see whether he challenges Bass, again, runs for governor or does something else entirely.

San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan, a moderate Democrat who has been floated for the job, said he’s focused on being mayor — though he didn’t exactly slam the door shut on running.

“My thinking hasn’t changed,” Mahan said. “Our next governor needs to be laser-focused on holding every city and county accountable for building shelter and in-patient treatment beds, and requiring that people use them when available.”

Eleni’s productive day: Democrats in the race were quick to seize on Wednesday’s opening. But Kounalakis had an especially good day.

She received an apparent off-the-cuff endorsement from former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, a fellow San Franciscan. And a person close to Kounalakis’ campaign, granted anonymity to describe internal conversations, told Playbook she received a call from Harris before the former vice president made her announcement.

Harris hasn’t said if she intends to endorse, but Kounalakis’ allies were quick to tout the call as a testament to their yearslong friendship. Moreover, Kounalakis’ camp emphasized her fundraising edge, with $9 million cash on hand.

Attacks on EU tech rules

Vague trade deal allows new US attacks on EU tech rules

With both sides claiming victory, Brussels may have to tread carefully when flexing its regulatory muscle against U.S. Big Tech.

By Pieter Haeck, Mathieu Pollet, Eliza Gkritsi and Jacob Parry

The European Commission claimed its tech rules escaped unscathed after Sunday’s trade deal with the U.S. But Washington says they’re still on the table.

The EU’s regulation of U.S. Big Tech companies is a big bone of contention between the two sides, and a lack of specifics in Sunday’s handshake deal between European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and U.S. President Donald Trump has allowed both sides to push their own narrative.

The EU claimed its tech rules were safeguarded, but the U.S. still thinks they need to be discussed.

The EU’s “attack on our tech companies, that’s going to be on the table,” U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick told CNBC on Tuesday, asked whether Sunday’s deal warranted further trade talks with the EU.  

This underscores how the U.S. doesn’t seem intent on backing down from its months-long campaign against the EU’s rules on content moderation, digital competition and artificial intelligence — despite the bloc’s insistence that its regulations are not up for negotiation as part of the trade talks.   

Even worse, lawmakers fear that the EU’s executive has already given up some ground or that the U.S. will feel empowered by Sunday’s deal to continue its criticisms.

No concessions given

The Commission was quick to point out that tech regulation was one of the areas where it had not given an inch, by excluding rulebooks like the Digital Services Act (DSA) and Digital Markets Act (DMA) from the negotiating table.  

“There is absolutely no commitment on digital regulation, nor on digital taxes,” said a senior EU official on Monday. They added that the Commission’s defense of the EU’s autonomy to regulate hadn’t received enough attention.  

It seemed like a win for the EU. Meanwhile, the U.S. busied itself wringing concessions on digital trade barriers from other countries in trade talks, such as Indonesia.

In early July, the bloc’s tech chief Henna Virkkunen drew a red line, telling POLITICO that the DSA, the DMA and the bloc’s artificial intelligence rulebook were all “not part of the trade negotiations from our side.”  

It was a fierce rebuke from a high-level EU official after U.S. officials, lawmakers and tech executives had railed for months against rules that, they argued, amounted to censorship (the DSA), unfair targeting of U.S. companies (the DMA) or the stifling of innovation (AI Act).  

Will they, won't they?

But Sunday’s deal contained some language that gave the U.S. ammunition for crossing that line in the future.

Von der Leyen admitted in her first remarks after the deal that both sides would further “address non-tariff barriers.” The U.S. later said both sides would “address unjustified digital trade barriers.”  

The U.S. began undermining the EU’s claim that it had secured a win and safeguarded its tech regulation in the days following the deal.

Jim Jordan, a powerful U.S. Congress Republican who has led the attacks against the DSA as chair of the Judiciary Committee, said after a Brussels visit on Monday that the DSA may be a “discussion item in the ongoing trade negotiations that the White House has with the European Union.”  

He promised “to touch base with the folks in the White House” on the matter.

Lutnick was quick to pick up his suggestion on Tuesday.  

The White House opened a second front by putting out a fact sheet late on Monday, in which it claimed the EU would not go ahead with so-called network fees — the policy suggestion that the largest online platforms, mostly American ones like Netflix and YouTube, should chip in for the cost of Europe’s telecom infrastructure. 

The Commission’s spokesperson for trade, Olof Gill, confirmed the claim to reporters on Tuesday in a frantic session where the bloc scrambled to defend its trade deal.

“That’s correct, but that doesn’t impinge on our rules or regulatory space,” he said, emphasizing that “we are not moving on our right to regulate autonomously in the digital space.” 

Look over your shoulder

Some fear that instead of settling the issue for good, Brussels will continue to have to look over its shoulder when deploying or enforcing its tech rules.

Virkkunen promised in June that several DSA probes would be wrapped up in the coming weeks and months, in particular one against Elon Musk’s X.

“Now that the deal is done, we should expect results,” said Nick Reiners, senior tech analyst at Eurasia Group. “That said, the Commission will be cautious as the deal is still only in principle.” 

The EU’s executive will also have to tread carefully on the topic of network fees as part of its new telecom law in December.

It has shelved the highly disputed network fees proposal, also known as fair share, for some time, opting instead to explore alternative regulatory options. But critics aren’t happy as they argue they will amount to network fees by a different name.

With the EU’s retreat on network fees now out in the open, the Commission may have to tread more carefully and be ready to debunk any accusations that it’s breaking the trade peace by sneaking them back in.

Others have an even more pessimistic outlook.

They claim that the EU has succumbed to Trump’s terms, which will empower the U.S. to go after the EU even harder.

“It sends the wrong signal: If we fold under pressure, what’s to stop Trump from coming after our legislation next?” S&D lawmaker Brando Benifei, one of the Parliament’s leads on the AI Act, said in a press release.

The Commission didn’t comment on Lutnick’s remarks before the publication of this article.

Hits a speed bump

Elon Musk's Tesla hits a speed bump in its California ‘Robotaxi’ rollout: Permits

As the tech CEO promises a Robotaxi launch in California, Tesla employees have been presenting a far more limited plan to key state regulators.

By Christine Mui

Tesla has been discussing a California expansion of its “ridesharing” service with state regulators — though in a far more limited way than Elon Musk is promising for his driverless Robotaxis, documents obtained by POLITICO reveal.

Tesla representatives made time for at least five meetings with the state Department of Motor Vehicles and its autonomous vehicle chief, Miguel Acosta, since the start of 2024, according to calendar invites, emails and other files from a public records request.

POLITICO first reported the communications less than a day before Tesla and Musk announced the launch of a ride-hailing service in the San Francisco Bay Area that lets invited users call a Tesla. Neither the company nor the CEO used the term “Robotaxi.”

The DMV’s exchanges with Tesla lawyers and other personnel paint the most detailed picture yet of what the notoriously media-wary company has been presenting to a key authority, while Musk broadcasts ambitions for a Robotaxi service in his former state. Still, it’s only a partial view of how Tesla has been interacting with state officials after Musk moved its headquarters to Texas following years of confrontations with California regulators and personal complaints about its liberal policies.

Records also indicate no correspondence between Tesla and the DMV’s autonomous vehicle branch from the start of 2025 to the spring, when Musk pivoted his focus to the Trump White House.

Musk is trying to transform Tesla and sees a nationwide fleet of fully autonomous taxis and humanoid robots as the only ideas that will matter to his long-term business strategy. He took the first step in Austin, Texas last month, piloting $4.20 rides with a human in the front passenger seat under the “Robotaxi” brand.

But Tesla faces more hurdles to doing the same in California, where it lacks permits that would allow it to run any autonomous service, even with a safety driver, and to charge for it. Without those approvals, there can be no Robotaxi.

Tesla scheduled two meetings with the California DMV this month, with the latest for last Thursday. Hours later, the DMV and another oversight body publicly warned the company against an unauthorized Robotaxi rollout in the San Francisco Bay Area, amid media reports of such plans.

In both cases, Musk made a habit of dropping launch date targets just ahead of the calls. Two days before his team’s first July meeting, the CEO posted on X that he was waiting on California regulators, despite not having submitted any recent applications. He gave a new timeline and location: “a month or two” to bring Robotaxis to the Bay Area. Then, a day before the second DMV meeting this month, Musk spoke on an earnings call about his goal of getting permission for Robotaxi launches in the Bay Area, among other cities, by the end of the year.

The term “Robotaxi” was never used in obtained emails, letters and meeting invites exchanged between the company and the DMV’s autonomous vehicle branch over the past year.

Tesla and the employees mentioned in this story did not respond to requests for comment.

Clearing the air

The documents show moments where Tesla was on the back foot as it made appeals to the DMV.

On April 10, Casey Blaine, Tesla’s senior counsel of regulatory affairs, got in touch with the department to dispel a suggestion — made on social media by an unnamed employee — that it would introduce unsupervised, full self-driving in Los Angeles later this year — software for its cars to move autonomously without the need for human monitoring or intervention.

Tesla knew the issue was statewide. The company has a permit that only allows it to operate a transportation service with conventional cars from the California Public Utilities Commission, which regulates AVs along with the DMV.

“Please know that Tesla is aware of the various permitting requirements,” Blaine emailed Acosta. “We understand that drivered and driverless autonomous rideshare operations would require obtaining additional permits from both the DMV and the CPUC.”

Blaine further apologized for “any confusion” created by the LinkedIn post from the employee, who she said likely “misunderstood the scope” of the permit.

She described an operation more like Uber than the concept Musk has in mind for Tesla’s future, which would go beyond the capabilities of the dominant robotaxi service throughout California and the U.S.: the Google-backed Waymo. It would use supervised, full self-driving software that is “functionally the same” as the partial automation available in Tesla cars, she told Acosta.

Some pro-Tesla influencers and owners posted screenshots Wednesday night showing the ride-hailing service had gone live on their Robotaxi app. Musk shared a video on X of one influencer trying a Bay Area ride. A human sat in the driver’s seat and was seen touching the wheel during the experience.

“As we explained to the CPUC, we are taking a phased approach,” Blaine had written to Acosta in April. “Beginning first with Tesla employees, then expanding to friends & family of Tesla employees, and then finally, opening it to the general public.”

Acosta revisited that topic in mid-June, when Tesla reached out, offering him a call to discuss comments it submitted on the DMV’s proposed autonomous vehicle regulations.

He declined. Instead, he wanted an update on Tesla’s testing operation, noting it had “been a while” since his last meeting with the team.

Blaine set up an hour-long meeting on July 11. Other regulatory counsel for Tesla — Eric Williams, Jessica Zacharski and Victoria Giese — as well as several of its technical staff, including lead Cybercab engineer Eric Earley and Autopilot whiz Pete Scheutzow, accepted the invite — as did Acosta.

A second meeting was arranged for last Thursday, according to a Microsoft Teams invitation from Blaine to the same Tesla attendees, plus a larger showing from the DMV. Besides Acosta, six other DMV employees agreed to attend.

“The department regularly engages with the autonomous vehicle industry before, during and after testing,” DMV spokesperson Jonathan Groveman told POLITICO earlier this month, noting the agency recently met with Tesla to discuss its plans to test AVs in the state.

That same Thursday, Tesla notified the CPUC it intended to grow its existing transportation service and offer rides to employees’ friends and family, as well as some members of the public across the entire Bay Area.

It didn’t take long for the DMV and CPUC to sound alarms. On Friday, Business Insider reported Tesla was preparing to move up its timeline for the Bay Area and invite select Tesla owners to pay for Robotaxi rides as early as that weekend. Inviting the public to take part in an autonomous launch would be a clear deviation from the plan Blaine previously explained to regulators.

CPUC spokesperson Terrie Prosper and Groveman each drew red lines on Friday, while confirming Tesla had not pursued any additional permits.

Prosper warned that Tesla can’t use an AV to transport the public in any scenario, no matter if a safety driver is present or whether passengers pay. Groveman said Tesla’s DMV permit allows it to operate AVs with a safety driver, but the company wouldn’t be able to charge for rides.

The report also prompted Emily Warren, a deputy secretary at the California State Transportation Agency, to contact Tesla’s policy lead for the Western U.S., Noelani Derrickson. Derrickson clarified Tesla’s Bay Area expansion would be for its conventional transportation service and said it had informed the CPUC, according to a CalSTA spokesperson.

State lawmakers who represent San Francisco raised concerns, too. Assemblymember Catherine Stefani wrote the DMV, asking whether it would enforce against an illegal launch, and said she hasn’t received any clear answers.

“If any other company tried to skirt the rules like this, they’d be shut down immediately,” she told POLITICO. “All I know is what [Elon’s] saying. I’m trying to get information from the DMV and the CPUC.”

Down this road before

The DMV has stepped in to check Tesla’s ambitions in the past. The agency accused Tesla of misleading customers about its full self-driving technology in an ongoing lawsuit and is pushing to suspend the automaker’s ability to sell in the state.

At times, regulators have questioned Tesla’s activities and whether they overstep the scope of its existing permits

Before this month, Tesla’s meetings with the DMV were related to its decade-old safety driver permit. One meeting on the books for early June was about “the process for transferring” Tesla’s California safety driver permit. Two in December — the last recorded meetings before this summer — had to do with an application Tesla submitted that month to renew that DMV permit.

Blaine was listed as the organizer of those calls, and participants included Acosta, often other DMV staff and a few of the same Tesla representatives, according to calendar records.

In November, Acosta contacted Tesla about a program of specialized test drivers, known internally as “Project Rodeo,” after Business Insider reported they were encouraged to dangerously stretch the limits of the company’s full self-driving technology by waiting as long as possible before taking control of the wheel.

“It is important to note that autonomous vehicles may only be tested, deployed or otherwise operated on public roads in California if the appropriate permit has been issued by the department,” he reminded Williams, counsel of regulatory affairs for Tesla, in a letter.

Tesla gave a different characterization of its effort during a call Acosta had with Williams and again in a letter from Eddie Gates, its director of field quality. Gates tried to convince Acosta that the program and the level of automation associated with it did not “implicate” the testing guidelines for its permit, according to a copy.

“Tesla routinely reminds Rodeo drivers that their top priority and that of the program is to ensure motor vehicle safety,” he wrote Acosta. “Rodeo drivers are trained to always and immediately intervene whenever they believe their vehicles may be about to perform a behavior that may create an unsafe situation for themselves and/or other road users.”

Global statehood push

State Department sanctions Palestinian leadership organizations amid global statehood push

The move comes amid murky messaging from Trump, as a growing number of U.S. allies push to recognize Palestinian statehood.

By Giselle Ruhiyyih Ewing and Felicia Schwartz

The State Department on Thursday announced sanctions against the Palestine Liberation Organization and Palestinian Authority, denying organization members visas for the United States, citing claims that the groups are “continuing to support terrorism.”

The move comes as Canada and a growing number of European countries have vowed to recognize Palestinian statehood ahead of September’s United Nations General Assembly meeting in New York, amid warnings from global leaders that Palestinians in the besieged Gaza Strip face mass starvation due to Israeli aid blockages.

But as many of Washington’s allies are taking steps to try to elevate Palestinian officials in the global community, the American move is aimed at isolating them.

The PLO and PA “are not in compliance with their commitments under the PLO Commitments Compliance Act of 1989 (PLOCCA) and the Middle East Peace Commitments Act of 2002 (MEPCA),” the State Department message read. “It is in our national security interests to impose consequences and hold the PLO and PA accountable for not complying with their commitments and undermining the prospects for peace.”

It’s not clear if the sanctions would bar Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas or other senior officials from traveling to the U.N. General Assembly, where France has said it will recognize a Palestinian state. In the past, some sanctioned global leaders have still been allowed to travel to America for the global meeting

“It’s performative, but the timing is not coincidental,” said Aaron David Miller, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and a former Middle East peace adviser to Democratic and Republican secretaries of State.

The announcement from the State Department comes as President Donald Trump appeared to double down in his position on Israel’s ongoing war Thursday morning, despite mounting pressure from some in MAGA circles for the administration to reconsider its support for Israel.

“The fastest way to end the Humanitarian Crises in Gaza is for Hamas to SURRENDER AND RELEASE THE HOSTAGES!!!” Trump wrote on Truth Social on Thursday morning.

Trump earlier this week broke with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to acknowledge the “real starvation” taking place in Gaza. His special envoy Steve Witkoff is in Israel on Thursday to assess the Israel-backed Gaza Humanitarian Foundation’s efforts to deliver aid to the Strip and to meet with Netanyahu.

Speaking during a bilateral meeting with U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer in Scotland on Monday, Trump said he would work with European countries to “set up food centers” in Gaza. He later brushed off the push from European allies to recognize Palestinian statehood, telling reporters the U.S. had “no view on that.”

Jonathan Panikoff, a former senior intelligence official during the Obama and first Trump administrations now at the Atlantic Council, said that while the State Department’s measures were “almost certainly” under consideration and in the works for some time, the timing could be welcome in Netanyahu’s government.

“The decision to announce them today will be very welcome news to the most right-wing members of the Netanyahu government but threatens to make reaching consensus on post-Gaza war governance even more difficult to achieve,” he said.

Failed former president

Trump threatens Russia’s ‘failed former president’ Medvedev

“He’s entering very dangerous territory!” the U.S. president warned on social media.

By Ketrin Jochecová

U.S. President Donald Trump threatened former Russian leader Dmitry Medvedev — and dismissed him as a “failed” president.

“Russia and the USA do almost no business together. Let’s keep it that way, and tell Medvedev, the failed former President of Russia, who thinks he’s still President, to watch his words. He’s entering very dangerous territory!” Trump wrote in the early hours of Thursday morning.

Medvedev, another social media motormouth, has ridiculed Trump’s ultimatum to the Kremlin, in which the U.S. president shortened his deadline for the Kremlin to end the war in Ukraine or face crippling economic consequences.

“Trump’s playing the ultimatum game with Russia: 50 days or 10 … He should remember 2 things: 1. Russia isn’t Israel or even Iran. 2. Each new ultimatum is a threat and a step towards war,” Medvedev blasted on social media earlier this week. “Not between Russia and Ukraine, but with his own country. Don’t go down the Sleepy Joe road!”

In another post on X, Medvedev, who is currently the deputy chair of Russia’s security council, called U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham “gramps,” after the Republican foreign policy hawk told him to “get to the peace table.”

“It’s not for you or Trump to dictate when to ‘get at the peace table’. Negotiations will end when all the objectives of our military operation have been achieved. Work on America first, gramps!” Medvedev fumed.

Trump in July originally set a 50-day deadline for Russia to reach a ceasefire with Ukraine, threatening tariffs if a deal was not made.

Medvedev was Vladimir Putin’s prime minister, before swapping places with him and serving as a placeholder president from 2008-2012 because Russian law barred Putin from a third consecutive term. Medvedev is a vocal supporter of Putin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine and frequent social media attack dog for the Kremlin.

The escalating war of wards continued on Telegram, where an enraged Medvedev threatened Trump with a Cold War-era doomsday weapon known as the “Dead Hand” — a Russian nuclear system designed to automatically launch a retaliatory strike.

“If a few words from a former Russian president can cause such a nervous reaction from the supposedly powerful President of the United States, then clearly Russia is right about everything and will continue its own way,” Medvedev wrote in a post.

“And as for the ‘dead economies’ of India and Russia and ‘stepping into dangerous territory’ — well, let him recall his favorite movies about the ‘walking dead,’ as well as how dangerous the supposedly non-existent ‘Dead Hand’ can be,” he added.

TACO Thursday........

Trump extends Mexico tariff deadline for 90 days

The temporary reprieve came shortly after a phone call between President Donald Trump and Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum

By Ari Hawkins

President Donald Trump on Thursday announced a 90-day extension of his tariff deadline for Mexico to allow more time for negotiations on a longer-term trade agreement.

“We have agreed to extend, for a 90 Day period, the exact same Deal as we had for the last short period of time, namely, that Mexico will continue to pay a 25% Fentanyl Tariff, 25% Tariff on Cars, and 50% Tariff on Steel, Aluminum, and Copper,” Trump wrote on Truth Social. “We will be talking to Mexico over the next 90 Days with the goal of signing a Trade Deal somewhere within the 90 Day period of time, or longer.”

Trump also claimed that “Mexico has agreed to immediately terminate its Non Tariff Trade Barriers, of which there were many,” though he did not specify which ones — and other foreign governments have disputed similar claims the president has made about recent agreements with their countries.

In a letter to Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum sent earlier this month, Trump threatened to impose a 30 percent duty on Mexican imports beginning Aug. 1. His administration had already raised tariffs on Mexican goods to 25 percent earlier this year, but has exempted a significant portion of imports that are compliant with the terms of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement that Trump inked during his first term — some estimates put it at more than half of all Mexican goods entering the U.S. That deal is up for review in 2026.

The president wrote Thursday that he spoke to Sheinbaum earlier in the day, adding, “more and more, we are getting to know and understand each other.”

In her own post on X., Sheinbaum echoed Trump’s warm words. “We had a very good call with the President of the United States, Donald Trump. We avoided the tariff increase announced for tomorrow and secured 90 days to build a long-term agreement through dialogue.”

Trump had previously insiste he would not extend his Aug. 1 deadline to raise tariffs on dozens of countries, sparking a flurry of dealmaking with major trading partners including the European Union, Japan and South Korea as they looked to stave off significantly higher duties. The preliminary agreements have all been verbal, with significant details still to work out.

Trump said in his social media post Thursday, however, that, “The complexities of a Deal with Mexico” make it “somewhat different than other Nations because of both the problems, and assets, of the Border.”

Supernova


A long time ago in a galaxy 50 million light-years away, a star exploded. Light from that supernova was first detected by telescopes on planet Earth on July 14th though, and the extragalactic transient is now known to astronomers as supernova 2025rbs. Presently the brightest supernova in planet Earth's sky, 2025rbs is a Type Ia supernova, likely caused by the thermonuclear detonation of a white dwarf star that accreted material from a companion in a binary star system. Type Ia supernovae are used as standard candles to establish the distance scale of the universe. The host galaxy of 2025rbs is NGC 7331. Itself a bright spiral galaxy in the northern constellation Pegasus, NGC 7331 is often touted as an analog to our own Milky Way.

July 30, 2025

25% tariffs

Trump dashes hopes of a trade deal with India by Aug. 1, announcing 25% tariffs

By Omkar Khandekar

President Trump on Wednesday said that the United States will begin imposing 25% tariffs on goods imported from India on Aug. 1.

In a Truth Social post, Trump said that while India is a friend of the U.S., "we have, over the years, done relatively little business with them because their Tariffs are far too high, among the highest in the World, and they have the most strenuous and obnoxious non-monetary Trade Barriers of any Country."

Trump also said he would impose an additional penalty on India for its trade relationship with Russia, which Trump is trying to pressure to come to a ceasefire with Ukraine. Trump did not elaborate on what that penalty would be or if it would also go into effect on Friday.

Trump's announcement came after five rounds of trade negotiations have yet to yield a result, dashing hopes that a deal could be concluded by Aug. 1. Indian media reported Tuesday that U.S. officials were expected to visit New Delhi for the sixth round in late August.

The U.S. is India's top export market. Its top products sold to the U.S. include electronics like iPhones, cheap medicines and precious stones. Last year, U.S. goods trade with India was nearly $130 billion, according to USTR. The U.S. goods trade deficit with India was $45.7 billion in 2024. Trump has blamed India's high tariffs on imports for the trade deficit.

A tough negotiation

India was among the first countries to begin trade negotiations with the U.S. Since February, its trade minister Piyush Goyal has traveled to Washington, D.C. multiple times. Even amid speculations that India might not make Trump's deadline, Goyal told Reuters that the two countries were making "fantastic" progress.

Early on, New Delhi showed willingness to lower some of its tariffs. At the February meeting at the White House, India had agreed to buy American oil and fighter jets, and give concessions to products like bourbon whiskey and Harley Davidson motorcycles. In the following months, India did not protest the increased visa restrictions for students and workers, and mutely accepted the deportation of hundreds of Indians in handcuffs.

Indian officials have largely been tight-lipped about the negotiations. But a few weeks ago, local media reported the two sides were unable to iron out differences over tariffs in dairy and agriculture, two sectors where India has high import barriers. In an interview with an Indian business daily, finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman said agriculture and dairy were the two "big red lines," and that the government wouldn't do anything that would "weaken our farmers' positions."

India has protected the two sectors, saying they provide livelihood to millions of Indian farmers. In 2020, tens of thousands of Indian farmers had protested for more than a year after the Indian government introduced laws reducing government procurement and allowing in the free market. The government was forced to repeal the laws.

A trade deal with the U.S. is "crucial" for India

When Trump was reelected to the White House in 2024, many Indian businesses celebrated the return of the "friend" of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

Trump's anti-China stance was expected to benefit Indian jobs and manufacturing. But Trump has made it clear that China's loss does not mean India's gain. After Apple CEO Tim Cook announced plans to move most of iPhone production from China to India, Trump claimed to have told him: "I don't want you building in India."

When fighting broke out between India and Pakistan in May, Trump boasted that he used the trade deal as leverage to broker a ceasefire within four days. In his first public remarks on such claims, Modi said yesterday that "no world leader" had asked India to stop its strikes on Pakistan. He did not, however, name Trump.

Experts say that India is treading carefully because it is vulnerable, despite being the world's fifth-largest economy.

"India is a large country but its purchasing power is not very high," Amit Basole, professor of economics at India's Azim Premji University. "We need jobs very badly, particularly in manufacturing and more productive sectors. Indian companies need export markets to grow and create these jobs."

A trade deal with the U.S., says Basole, is thus "critical" for India.

Mega earthquake

Why did Russian mega earthquake not cause more tsunami damage?

Esme Stallard and Mark Poynting

It has been one of the strongest earthquakes ever recorded – but so far has not brought the catastrophic tsunami that many feared.

When the 8.8-magnitude quake struck eastern Russia at 11:25 local time on Wednesday (00:25 BST), it raised concerns for coastal populations across the Pacific.

Millions of people were evacuated, as minds cast back to the devastating tsunami of Boxing Day 2004 in the Indian Ocean and Japan 2011, both triggered by similarly large earthquakes.

But today's tsunami has been much less severe, even though it's brought some damage.

So what caused the earthquake and tsunami – and why wasn't it as bad as initially feared?

What causes a mega earthquake?

The Kamchatka Peninsula is remote but lies in the "Pacific Ring of Fire" - so called because of the high number of earthquakes and volcanoes that occur here.

The upper layers of the Earth are split into sections – tectonic plates – which are all moving relative to one another.

The "Pacific Ring of Fire" is an arc of these plates that extends around the Pacific. Eighty percent of the world's earthquakes occur along the ring, according to the British Geological Survey.

Just off the coast of the Peninsula, the Pacific plate is moving north-west at about 8cm (3in) per year - only about twice the rate that your fingernails grow, but fast by tectonic standards.

There it comes into contact with another, smaller plate - called the Okhotsk microplate.

The Pacific plate is oceanic, which means it has dense rocks and wants to sink beneath the less dense microplate.

As the Pacific plate sinks towards the centre of the Earth, it heats up and begins to melt, effectively disappearing.

But this process is not always smooth. Often the plates can get stuck as they move past each other and the overriding plate is dragged downwards.

This friction can build up over thousands of years, but can then be suddenly released in just a couple of minutes.

This is known as a megathrust earthquake.

"When we typically think about earthquakes, we imagine an epicentre as a small point on a map. However, for such large earthquakes, the fault will have ruptured over many hundreds of kilometres," explained Dr Stephen Hicks, lecturer in environmental seismology at University College London.

"It is this vast amount of slip and area of the fault that generates such a high earthquake magnitude."

The largest earthquakes recorded in history, including the three strongest in Chile, Alaska and Sumatra, were all megathrust earthquakes.

And the Kamchatka Peninsula is prone to strong quakes.

In fact, another high magnitude 9.0 earthquake struck less than 30km (19mi) from today's earthquake in 1952, the US Geological Survey says.

Why wasn't this as bad as previous tsunamis?

This sudden movement can displace water above the plates, which can then travel to the coastline as tsunami.

In the deep ocean, tsunami can travel at more than 500mph (800km/h), about as fast as a passenger aeroplane.

Here, the distance between waves is very long and the waves aren't very high – rarely more than a metre.

But as a tsunami enters shallow water near land, it slows down, often to about 20-30mph.

The distance between waves shortens, and waves grow in height, which can effectively create a wall of water near the coast.

But it's by no means guaranteed that a very strong earthquake will lead to a particularly tall tsunami reaching far inland.

Today's quake brought tsunami waves of 4m (13ft) in parts of eastern Russia, according to authorities there.

But they don't come close to the waves tens-of-metres high of Boxing Day 2004 in the Indian Ocean and Japan 2011.

"The height of the tsunami wave is also affected by local shapes of the seafloor near the coast and the [shape] of the land where it arrives," said Prof Lisa McNeill, professor of tectonics at the University of Southampton.

"These factors, along with how populated the coast is, affect how serious the impact is," she added.

Initial reports from the US Geological Survey said that the earthquake was centred at quite a narrow depth, about 20.7km (12.9 miles) below the Earth's surface.

That can lead to greater displacement of the seafloor, and therefore a bigger tsunami wave, but it's hard to tell for sure so soon after the event.

"One possibility is that the tsunami models have maybe taken a conservative estimate on the earthquake depth," Dr Hicks told BBC News.

"Potentially you could shift that earthquake another 20 kilometres deeper, and that would actually reduce the amplitude of the tsunami waves quite considerably."

Better early warning systems

Another important element is the development of early warning systems.

Due to the high occurrence of earthquakes in the Pacific region, many countries have tsunami centres. They send out warnings via public announcements for populations to evacuate.

No such system was in place when the 2004 Boxing Day tsunami occurred - leaving many people without time to evacuate.

More than 230,000 people died across 14 countries in the Indian Ocean.

Early warning systems are important because of the limited ability of scientists to predict when an earthquake will occur.

The US Geological Survey recorded an earthquake measuring 7.4 in the same region ten days before.

This may have been a foreshock - an early release of energy - but it is not a predictor of exact timing of a future earthquake, explained Prof McNeill.

"Although we can use how fast the plates are moving, GPS to measure current movements and when previous earthquakes occurred, we can only use this information to make forecasts of probability of an earthquake," she said.

The Geophysical Survey of the Russian Academy of Sciences (GS RAS) will continue to monitor the region as it anticipates aftershocks could continue for the next month.

Some damage

Heavy surge rips off a dock in Crescent City Harbor District

From CNN's Holly Yan

A surge of water several feet high caused a deck to break off in the Crescent City Harbor District, Harbormaster Mike Rademaker said.

“We didn’t have any injuries, fortunately, but we did sustain some damage in the Inner Boat Basin,” Rademaker said Wednesday.

“At approximately 2:40 a.m., we noticed there was a surge of water several feet in height that caused the decking of H dock to lift along its pilings. So, as the water levels continued to rise, the structure was unable to adjust, and the decking became lodged in the pilings and was eventually submerged.”

The dock was completely separated, Rademaker said.

Crescent City, in the northwest corner of California, has a long history of tsunami damage due to its geography and crescent-shaped beach. In 1964, the city suffered a tsunami that killed 11 people and destroyed 289 buildings and homes.

Where tariffs stand

Where tariffs stand and what’s changed since the last Fed meeting

From CNN's Elisabeth Buchwald

The tariff rates that American importers are paying on foreign goods haven’t changed since the Federal Reserve’s last meeting. That’s set to change drastically come 12:01 a.m. ET on Friday, the self-imposed deadline President Donald Trump set for countries to make trade agreements or face higher tariffs.

Ahead of the deadline, Trump sent dozens of letters to heads of state informing them of those rates, which go as high as 50%. Countries that didn’t receive letters and haven’t entered trade agreements with the United States aren’t off the hook for higher tariffs, though. In those instances, Trump threatened to raise their tariff levels from a minimum of 10%, the same rate most countries’ goods have been taxed at since April, to between 15% and 20%.

Even though Trump announced a handful of recent agreements with trading partners, which include the European Union, Japan, Indonesia and the Philippines, the rates at which their goods shipped to the US will be taxed are still higher than current levels. But they avoided his threats for even higher tariffs.

Then, in addition to country-specific rates, Trump recently threatened to impose a 50% copper tariff and said tariffs on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals will increase in the near future.

Tariff bite......

Trump's tariffs are already affecting back-to-school shoppers

From CNN's Vanessa Yurkevich

Back-to-school shopping is already under way. And this year’s essential: avoiding tariffs.

Two-thirds of Americans with school-aged children started shopping for the upcoming school year in July, the earliest on record, according to a new survey from the National Retail Federation. Families, concerned that President Donald Trump’s tariffs could drive prices even higher, are looking for deals and pulling back on spending.

“Consumers are being mindful of the potential impacts of tariffs and inflation on back-to-school items, and have turned to early shopping, discount stores and summer sales for savings on school essentials,” said Katherine Cullen, vice president of industry and consumer insights at the NRF, in a statement.

Half of back-to-school shoppers say they are hitting stores earlier this year compared to last year specifically because they are worried tariffs will increase prices, the NRF’s survey found. Many school essentials like backpacks, clothing, and electronics are imported into the United States.

Tariffs on most of America’s trading partners are set to rise on August 1, unless they can make a trade deal with the United States before then.

Using arcane law

Senate Democrats try to force release of Epstein files using arcane law

By Lauren Fox, Katelyn Polantz

Senate Democrats are using an arcane procedural tool to try to force the Department of Justice to release additional files from the Jeffrey Epstein case – the latest gambit to keep the issue front-and-center as lawmakers prepare for their month-long August recess.

In a new letter to Attorney General Pam Bondi, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and Democrats who sit on the Senate Homeland Security Committee requested DOJ release all of the files related to Epstein, including audio, video and any other relevant documents.

“After missteps and failed promises by your Department regarding these files, it is essential that the Trump Administration provide full transparency,” the group wrote in a later dated Tuesday.

The letter goes on to request the documents be turned over no later than August 15 and that appropriate accommodations be made to protect victims’ identities. The Democrats are also requesting a briefing no later than August 29.

Democrats are basing their request on a nearly 100-year-old law that allows five or more members of the Senate Homeland Security Committee to request information from the administration even when they are in the minority and lack subpoena power. The law, however, has not been regularly used nor is it clear whether it would yield the documents Democrats are seeking in an extended court fight challenging the request.

Democrats have sought in recent weeks to keep the fight over the Epstein files, and the fallout from it, at the political forefront, viewing it as a key test for President Donald Trump and his ability to contain the fervor for them among his usually loyal base. In the House, an Oversight subcommittee moved in a bipartisan vote to subpoena the Epstein files after Democrats pushed the issue there, and the party has made similar pushes in other committees on both sides of the Capitol.

CNN has reached out to Senate GOP Leader John Thune’s office on Democrats’ effort, which was first reported on by The New York Times.

The Justice Department is not expected to comply with the demand for the Epstein files, according to a source familiar with its thinking.

The Democrats’ likelihood of success will hinge in part on the willingness of the Trump administration to put the information out, as a court fight would be unlikely to force the documents over to Congress.

That’s because Congress has struggled for years, especially during Trump’s presidencies, to obtain documents and information from the executive branch. Several times, committees and members have sued, with mixed results that often end years later in negotiation rather than a final court ruling.

In 2017, a small group of House members sued for documents from the General Services Administration related to its contract with the Trump Internation Hotel in Washington.

The House Oversight Committee got some traction at the time from the federal appellate court in DC, which in a split three-judge decision determined members of Congress had the ability to go to court seeking executive branch information if they requested it under the law allowing five senators or seven individual House members to sue.

Five years later, however, the Biden administration was still arguing in court for the same policy the first Trump administration had backed: that individual members of Congress, even ranking minority committee members, didn’t have that level of legal authority.

The Biden administration, in a petition to the Supreme Court in 2022, wrote that members of Congress could always use politics rather than the courts to pressure an administration. The Supreme Court never heard the case, after the Biden administration provided the Democrats in Congress many of the documents they sought.

In a cell, a torn bedsheet, a fat slob hanging by it's chicken neck......

How Does the Epstein Scandal End? 

The Trump administration is desperate to kill the story. Here are five ways they could try.

Anna Merlan

Last week, top officials in Donald Trump’s version of the Justice Department, including Todd Blanche, the president’s former personal criminal attorney, paid a visit to Ghislaine Maxwell, the socialite turned sex trafficker. Maxwell is currently serving 20 years for her role in helping the financier-pedophile Jeffrey Epstein sexually abuse women and girls; according to a 2022 pre-sentencing memorandum in her case, Maxwell also abused some girls herself, fondling and groping their breasts to normalize the hyper-sexualized environment that she and Epstein had created. While no notes or details about last week’s meetings have been released, it’s exceedingly clear that the Trump administration is hoping their conversation with her will pry loose some new names of Epstein associates—and end the scandal that’s engulfed the administration and the president for the past several weeks. 

At this point, Donald Trump is dealing, still, with a nearly unprecedented situation: the real and undiminished fury of a good portion of his base over his own administration’s handling of the Jeffrey Epstein case. Since July 6, when his FBI and Department of Justice released an unsigned memo declaring that Epstein died by suicide, did not maintain a “client list,” and was not blackmailing powerful people, that anger has gone on and on, bolstered by a number of very stupid steps the Trump administration has taken to try to quell it. Trump himself is said to be “exasperated” by the ongoing scandal, having hoped and expected that his base would have moved on by now, as has happened countless times before with other scandals and controversies involving the president. 

Instead, as the Epstein controversy drags on, interviewing Maxwell is one of the ways that the Trump administration is clearly hoping to finally put the Epstein headlines behind them. Seeing an opening, Maxwell’s attorney David Markus is also urging the Supreme Court to overturn her conviction while appealing to Trump for a pardon. The president himself has refused to rule out the idea of pardoning her, telling a press gaggle recently, “I’m allowed to do it, but it’s something I have not thought about.” On Tuesday, Markus said that while Maxwell has signaled a willingness to testify before Congress, she would invoke her Fifth Amendment rights against self-incrimination during that questioning if she’s not granted “formal immunity.”

Maxwell could agree to name names in her conversations with Trump’s DOJ, identifying other powerful people who haven’t previously been publicly accused of engaging in sex crimes with Epstein, while at the same time declaring that Trump himself never engaged in sexually inappropriate behavior. 

But hammering out such a deal carries its own risks, says Mike Rothschild, an author and journalist who studies conspiracy theories, given that Maxwell’s attorney has made clear that she expects what her attorney has called “relief”—widely taken to mean a pardon or sentencing reduction—in return for such cooperation.   

“I would imagine that every Republican running for office next year is begging him not to just outright pardon Ghislaine Maxwell,” Rothschild says. “They’re going to have to spend the next year and a half trying to justify something with no justification to voters who think she’s nothing more than a convicted trafficker. He doesn’t have to run again, but they do. And if a Maxwell pardon really does shatter his base and peel off a big number of Trump-only voters, they’re the ones who will have to pick up the pieces.” 

The facts will complicate any effort by Trump or his defenders to position Maxwell as a brave truthteller who has now decided to blow the whistle on Epstein, her former boyfriend and co-conspirator. As ABC News recently pointed out, prosecutors said in Maxwell’s 2022 pre-sentencing memorandum that she’d neither been forthcoming nor remorseful ahead of trial, accusing her of having “lied repeatedly about her crimes, exhibited an utter failure to accept responsibility, and demonstrated repeated disrespect for the law and the Court.” As Rothschild notes, “Even the fact that it’s possible Maxwell might get clemency or some kind of voided conviction is shaping up to be one of the biggest political scandals in American history.” 

Recent history, and Trump’s long-established patterns, suggest other possibilities for how he and his allies could try to divert attention from the Epstein case. One avenue that Trump’s prominent friends have already attempted is to simply declare the story to be over—something that’s so far had limited success. As Slate pointed out, multiple news outlets declared last week that Trump had successfully convinced his MAGA base to stop being mad at him about Epstein, including the New York Times, Politico, the Washington Post, and CNN. Every story cited the same prominent source: Trump ally and former White House official Steve Bannon. (In other words, and now more than ever, just because Bannon says something does not make it true.) This month, Trump himself called the Epstein controversy a “hoax” and “bullshit” and castigated his supporters for believing it, which also did not work to make it go away.

Another clear possibility is that the administration finds an internal scapegoat to blame the Epstein mess on. That would most likely be Attorney General Pam Bondi; as the face of the Justice Department, Bondi has been the target of the most focused MAGA outrage: the House GOP, including Speaker Mike Johnson, have already made clear that they’re dissatisfied with Bondi’s handling of the case. Deputy FBI Director Dan Bongino, a popular far-right podcaster turned political appointee, has also made clear that he’s been feuding with Bondi, reportedly threatening to quit several weeks ago if she wasn’t fired, a promise he has thus far not made good on. If the Trump administration chose to fire Bondi and appoint someone new who declares they are investigating the whole mess from scratch, it could at least quiet the headlines for several weeks or months.    

An unlikely fourth option is a large document dump, as the administration recently did with files relating to the assassinations of JFK and Dr. Martin Luther King Jr; the King files also further detail the FBI’s years-long surveillance of the civil rights leader before his murder, and were released despite objections from King’s children.

But there are reasons this probably hasn’t already been done, despite Bondi’s promises to release more, and her failed February stunt where conservative influencers were handed binders that turned out to contain previously released information from Epstein’s flight logs and address book. Releasing more information carries significant privacy risks, as well as legal ones. Any Epstein files would certainly contain the names of living people, who could then be threatened by vigilantes accusing them of sex crimes; it could also breach the privacy of Epstein victims who haven’t chosen to publicly come forward. Bondi has also said the Epstein files contain images and videos of child sexual exploitation material; releasing that would be a criminal offense and would also re-victimize the people depicted in them. And, of course broader disclosures could draw in the president: as Bondi reportedly told Trump in May, his name is mentioned in Epstein files, although it’s not clear in what form. 

The fifth and most likely option is a version of what is already playing out, to limited success: trying to find another scandal that will appeal to—and distract—the MAGA base. Since the Epstein scandal broke, Trump officials have promised to criminally investigate former CIA director John Brennan and former FBI director James Comey. More recently, Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard has started promoting a contorted scandal accusing the Obama administration of criminal conduct. Right-wing and conspiracy outlets like Infowars have tried to play along, touting headlines that President Obama will soon be charged with “treasonous conspiracy.” Thus far, though, there’s very little sign that the broader MAGA base is excited—or distracted—by these announcements.  

As these many and chaotic possibilities continue to unfold, Trump officials are struggling to keep the positive attention and loyalty of their base. Chief among them is Bongino, who announced in a cryptic tweet this week that shocking things are taking place behind the scenes—a promise that he and other administration officials have made multiple times.

“During my tenure here as the Deputy Director of the FBI, I have repeatedly relayed to you that things are happening that might not be immediately visible, but they are happening,” Bongino tweeted, in a statement that might have occasioned deja vu for his readers. “The Director and I are committed to stamping out public corruption and the political weaponization of both law enforcement and intelligence operations. It is a priority for us. But what I have learned in the course of our properly predicated and necessary investigations into these aforementioned matters, has shocked me down to my core. We cannot run a Republic like this. I’ll never be the same after learning what I’ve learned.”

Bongino’s promise of new revelations at some unspecified future point seemed designed to reassure his impatient followers. While that may have worked before, it’s less clear that it’ll have its intended effect this time—leaving Trump and his administration, again, desperately looking for a new way out.

It's so cheap....

Rooftop Solar Is a Miracle. Why Are We Killing It With Red Tape?

Trump wants to end solar power—and too many blue states are helping.

Bill McKibben

Earlier this summer, Tara McDermott, who’s in charge of policy communications for a New York state solar developer called EmPower Solar, was telling me a woeful tale a lot like others I’d been hearing lately. A customer whom I’ll call Pam had tried to put solar panels on top of her home in Mount Vernon to save money and help the planet. EmPower submitted its first permit application to the city in September 2023 and then went back and forth with them for months as the city asked for revisions, updated proof of insurance, and other documentation from Pam. Eventually, one of McDermott’s colleagues got fed up and reached out to the mayor for assistance—in fact, he drove to City Hall and asked to see her. Upon being told that she wasn’t in her office, he said he’d sit there and wait for her return.

“It turns out the mayor was indeed there in her office and couldn’t leave without passing him,” McDermott recalled, warming to her tale. “So they called the police on my guy to remove him from the space—they deemed him a threat.”

Eventually, after some negotiation, two cops were detailed to accompany the EmPower employee upstairs to the building department, and they all sat there for two hours while staff worked on the permit for the solar panels. But not, unfortunately, the permit for the electric wiring that goes with it. Before that step could happen, Pam’s loan agreement expired. “There are no options left and she probably can’t go solar. And we’ve spent hundreds of hours on this one house,” McDermott told me.

This tale was absurd enough on its own. But then she said something else, almost in passing: “Our CEO went to southern Spain two years ago during all this, just staying with some friends at their house there. And they wanted solar, and he was the solar guy, so they asked him. They all went to the local store, something like Best Buy, and they picked the system he recommended and signed up, and by the time he left Spain two weeks later, it was already installed and running. This wasn’t DIY or under the radar. They did it legally. Imagine that world.”

In many countries, people don’t have to imagine it. A million and a half Germans have installed “balcony solar”—they simply went to the big-box store, bought a giant panel for a few hundred euros, hung it from their apartment railing, and produced up to a quarter of their household’s power needs. Other European countries have followed suit. Ditto Australia, where Saul Griffith, author of the new book Plug In!, notes that permits can be had in a single day using a smartphone app—“the tradie [contractor] often does this for you. In Australia, it takes two or three days once you’ve made the decision to do it to get the system up and running.”

But not in America, where President Donald Trump and his Republican allies are pulling out all the stops to destroy renewable power. They’ve shut down big offshore wind projects, they’re limiting projects on public lands, and the “Big Beautiful Bill” not only rolled back tax credits for large-scale renewable projects, it took direct aim at precisely the kind of rooftop solar work that thousands of small contractors like EmPower produce. Upon news that the bill would phase out tax credits for residential solar by the end of 2025, the already depressed stock price of Sunrun, the country’s biggest residential solar provider, fell 40 percent; PV Magazine, the industry trade journal, headlined its story “U.S. Residential Solar on the Brink of Collapse.”

That’s a very real possibility—we’ve seen the same thing once before, when the Reagan administration withdrew federal support for solar installers and, almost overnight, the solar workforce plummeted. The cuts the GOP-controlled Congress pushed through in July could take out as many as 400,000 jobs, per recent estimates. Notably, these latest efforts come after the two hottest years in human history and at a moment when, worldwide, solar power is growing faster than any energy source in history—putting both the planet and the country’s technological leadership at risk.

So giving in to Trump’s attack is not an option. Instead, we need to figure out how to keep rooftop solar growing even without the federal tax credits that have spurred it in the recent past. Doing that will require, among other things, unclogging the peculiarly American system of local permitting that has played a huge role in making “going solar” far more expensive than it needs to be. If Pam’s system had gone up in an afternoon with far less paperwork, we’d be in a very different place—a place where the “abundance” debate meets the climate crisis and offers a real way out.

Let’s go back to Australia for a moment. Down under, Griffith says, “rooftop solar installs at about 55 cents a watt, meaning electricity that ends up costing 2 or 3 cents a kilowatt-hour. In the US, it averages about $2.50 a watt, and in San Francisco, I paid $5.80 per watt.” That means it takes much longer to recoup the cost of a project and far fewer people are willing to take it on. About a third of Australian homes now have rooftop solar—seven times more than in America. The glacial speed of our local permitting plays a huge role. Contractors have to keep “rolling trucks” to revisit your roof and redraw plans. By some estimates, a one-week delay can result in a 10 percent client cancellation rate, which means solar developers have to spend ever more money on customer acquisition. (You’ve seen the ads.) Meanwhile, interest accrues on any loans taken out to finance such projects—it all adds up.

The slow permitting is not the only problem—once the panels are on the roof, utilities often drag their feet in connecting them to the grid, part of the fossil fuel industry’s ongoing war against renewables. Some areas have made meaningful progress with this “interconnection” problem, and the work to push utilities to move faster continues, often at the level of state public utility commissions and the seven “independent system operators,” or ISOs, that run the nation’s grid. But these big power players can’t do much about, say, the Mount Vernon building inspector. America’s commitment to local control enables a tangle of entities to set the pace of solar growth.

Happily, because many of those jurisdictions are firmly in blue hands, there’s still plenty to be done, even with Washington doing its damnedest to sabotage clean energy. Democratic leaders seem to be warming to the abundance agenda—at least they’re finally talking about whether America can be reconfigured to once more build ambitious projects. But even if we could wave a magic wand and get projects like high-speed rail or clean-power transmission corridors moving, such monumental efforts will take a while and, as with former President Joe Biden’s spending on clean energy, voters might never notice the improvement—or know who deserves the credit.

But up on your own roof? You notice that. If you could easily get a permit to install a low-cost machine that could save you money, and, oh yes, also help ward off the civilizational challenge that is climate change, you might start thinking a little differently about government. Forget YIMBYs for a moment—we’re talking YOMRs. You’ve got a right to the sunshine that falls on your home, whether you’re a renter with a balcony or a homeowner. Free the electron! We’re used to thinking of roofs as protection from rain—but the sun can also provide a shower of dollars and cents, and some bureaucrat shouldn’t force you to stay at the mercy of Big Utility. Why should the Chinese and the Australians and the Germans get access to the sun while you’re denied it? I mean, what the hell—we’re bathed in free energy every daylight hour and we need a bunch of permits to use it? What’s American about that?

“It’s so cheap to build a solar panel now,” says Nick Josefowitz, who runs the advocacy group Permit Power. “It’s cheaper than producing a plank of wood. It’s one of the great engineering miracles of our lifetimes. But we’ve swaddled this engineering miracle in rolls and rolls of red tape to make it too expensive for American families.” Although they’re reluctant to say it publicly, some industry people I spoke with said that it was possible to imagine a robust solar industry without any government subsidies (see Australia)—so long as bureaucracy got out of the way.

Want to prove government can still work? Looking for ways to balance American individualism with concern for the collective good we call “the environment”? Ready to shake off the fossil fuel oligarchy that helped lead this country into its political morass? To the ladders!

Rooftop solar is not the only source of clean energy, of course. Utility-scale solar—big solar farms—accounts for twice as much generation in this country and a lot of the startling takeoff in clean energy around the world. But adding big projects to the grid can be complicated—you need new transmission lines and substations, which the Biden administration was working to provide and the Trump administration is now busy blocking. Fossil fuel industry players and some utilities have also deployed astroturf groups to block such projects; according to Heatmap News, this partly explains why, in at least 20 percent of US counties, it’s now essentially impossible to deploy large-scale clean energy.

So rooftop solar is a nice complement to the grid, both physically and politically. There’s enough wasted space up above our heads to supply a significant portion of the nation’s energy needs—one study found that we could generate 45 percent of our electricity this way; at the moment, we only harvest about 2 percent. Often, that rooftop array supplies power to the grid and, increasingly, it also fills batteries in the basement, which can not only power the house at night or charge an EV, but also make that house far more adaptable in times of crisis. Mary Powell, CEO of Sunrun, said that during the Los Angeles fires, when the power company cut the juice for hundreds of thousands of people out of fear its wires would spark more blazes, “our homes became the safe haven, the place where people could recharge their phones to get the news alerts. This is critical infrastructure.”

And the line between rooftop and utility-scale solar has begun to blur; new software allows the aggregation of thousands of home batteries into “virtual power plants” that can be dispatched by a utility to lessen the load on the grid. In California, Sunrun has knit together a network of 75,000 home batteries—together, they could supply enough power to run, say, all of Ventura County (pop. 830,000). In Vermont, where I live, the biggest single power plant on our grid is the network of interconnected batteries that can be called up in a pinch by Green Mountain Power. The nation’s biggest virtual power plant is now being built in Texas by stringing together hundreds of thousands of customers who use Google Nest thermostats. These networks are not just resilient—a single power plant can fail on a hot day, but not 10,000 basement batteries—they also save big money. By reducing the need for utilities to build new power plants to account for “peak loads,” the Department of Energy estimated in 2023 that battery networks could save customers at least $10 billion a year.

So, dramatically expanding the amount of solar on the roof would be an unmitigated good. As Solar United Neighbors—a nonprofit that has helped more than 11,000 families go solar, concentrating on low-income neighborhoods—puts it, “demanding utility accountability and deploying distributed solar in under-resourced communities and communities of color can catalyze a shift toward a new, equitable, distributed clean energy system.” But all of that depends, first and foremost, on making rooftop solar cheap so that more and more families and landlords can afford it. And that, in turn, depends in part on dramatically reducing the thicket of regulations that get in the way of easy deployment.

It’s hard for people to imagine, I think, that permitting costs could make such a difference—surely it’s a marginal part of the cost, compared to, you know, the panels. But the truth is that low-cost manufacturing pioneered by the Chinese has driven hardware costs to bizarre lows. Even before Trump upped the tariffs on foreign panels, Americans were paying three times as much as Australians for rooftop solar, and that’s explained almost entirely by the “soft costs” of permitting, marketing, and installation.

Andrew Birch, who had previously lived in Australia, remembers the hopeful days of his startup two decades ago. “We started Sungevity in the US because we thought it would be this free open market where we could sell online easily,” he says. “It turned out to be just the opposite.” When visitors would stop by to see his new operation, it seemed almost magical. “We’d take them to see the sales floor, which was full of people at computers, talking to customers. Even then, you could see a house on Google Earth and calculate quickly how much power solar could provide—our agents could design a system in a few keystrokes. Our visitors were impressed. But then I’d have to say, ‘Let’s go to the other building’—where we had another whole team, doubling the size of the company, doing customer management and permit creation work. It takes an average of three months to set up a system, and five to six months in the Northeast. And all of that head count and work adds $1.50 a watt.”

The soft costs are literally more expensive than the hardware—it’s like spending a thousand bucks for an iPhone and then another thousand for the apps. “You have to arrange a site visit and drive a truck out there,” Birch says. “You have to climb up on the roof to get the rafter spacing, do incredibly elaborate electrical drawings. Then you roll another truck to the permit office. They might have different views about how to interpret the drawings, which means change orders, which means another resell to the customer.” All of this would be bad enough if there were a single regulator to respond to, as in most countries. But in America there are something like 20,000 separate jurisdictions—cities, towns, counties—that approve building plans. Each is different. A solar contractor in a metro area might have to deal with a dozen or more permitting offices.

Sungevity died during the first Trump administration, but Birch hasn’t given up the fight. He now runs OpenSolar, “the world’s first free, end-to-end platform designed to help solar professionals grow their businesses and streamline their operations.” But those installers still run into permit blockage, which is why Birch spends much of his time proselytizing for another piece of software: It’s called SolarAPP+, and it was originally developed by the federal government’s National Renewable Energy Laboratory precisely to make permitting easier. In the several hundred jurisdictions that have adopted the tool, installers go through a checklist—what model of solar panel, what kind of inverters, how they plan to tie into the house’s electrical system—and the app spits out a permit so they can get to work; when they’re finished, an inspector can come out or, in some cases, simply review photos the installers send. Other countries have dispensed with permits altogether (in Australia, spot inspections keep installers on their toes), but in the US, SolarAPP+ is probably as streamlined as we’re likely to get. And where it’s in place, it seems to work. Louis Woofenden, a Tucson-based solar installer, says he can now get permits in a day as opposed to about five weeks in the past. As a result, he can far more easily quote prices to potential customers: “And there’s something to being able to say, ‘I have an installation slot in six weeks,’ not three months.”

Matthew McAllister, who runs the SolarAPP Foundation, says about 5 percent of the nation’s residential rooftop projects now get one of its automated permits—it topped 1,000 permits a week for the first time this past spring. “Our goal by the end of the decade is to be able to process half of applications, which would be enough to really influence soft costs and prices.”

His organization has mapped out the 1,000 jurisdictions it thinks are likely to install the most solar, and is reaching out to building departments one by one—in the last year, New Orleans and Palm Beach County in Florida have come on board. “One thing we’re always working on is to communicate that we’re a very lightweight software tool,” he says. “A level above a Chrome extension, not an IT replacement. It integrates with their existing software.”

Legislatures in California, Maryland, and most recently New Jersey have instructed their local communities to switch to SolarAPP+, and other states are considering it, but it’s always a battle. The Colorado legislature gutted a proposal this past spring to switch its communities to the technology, even though it had the potential to dramatically increase installations and save Coloradans $1 billion on their energy bills by 2030. “Local officials may think, ‘I’ll lose my job,’” Birch says. “We tell them: You’ll do five times as many solar permits. If you’re just inspecting 1 in 5, you’ll do as much work, and the city will get five times the fees.”

But that doesn’t mean it’s an easy sell to jurisdictions used to Doing Things a Certain Way. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory, which developed SolarAPP+, has two campuses in Colorado; Boulder County is a hotspot for climate scientists and has seen terrifying wildfires in recent years. (If you want to scare yourself silly, check out footage of families fleeing a Chuck E. Cheese near a horrendous 2021 blaze.) And yet in March, the county opposed a state bill to require the use of SolarAPP+. Ron Flax, Boulder County’s chief building official, says he’s a “huge fan” of the app, but “making it mandatory is always a little bit controversial. Any bill that tells a jurisdiction you must do X, Y, or Z—well, they value their freedom of choice.” His inspectors, he says, “still find things.” Some years ago, they had installers who weren’t grounding panels correctly—“We don’t have a well-established apprenticeship program for trades in the US; the actual craftsmen, these are not well-paid folks”—but today, he admits, zoning regulations are a bigger headache.

In any case, one senses that Flax would be just fine if Boulder residents didn’t want so many solar panels. Building mostly utility-scale solar would be “optimal,” he told me. “If my baseline electric grid is made up of mostly renewables, then I really don’t want a lot of rooftop solar,” he explained. “It’s more efficient to do that at a grid scale.”

That kind of attitude—which effectively tables the idea of distributed power generation networks—seems particularly common in progressive communities. Like Boulder, San Francisco is jam-packed with people who care about the climate, but their former mayor and current governor, Gavin Newsom, has emerged as perhaps the country’s most significant obstacle to rooftop solar, deferring to utilities and unions by reducing the price that homeowners can get for the power they sell to the grid; he even vetoed a bill last year that would have made it easier for schools and hospitals to install solar. (“We’re expending so much time, emotional and intellectual energy in Sacramento just not having the space harmed more,” says Sunrun’s Powell.) The Bay Area may be the single hardest place on Earth to permit rooftop projects. Jeanine Cotter, who runs a local solar business, gives an example: “In San Francisco, where land is expensive, we build right to the lot lines, and so one way to get light in a house is with skylights. Our code says you need 3 feet of clearance around every skylight. But if you have a small roof and skylights, well, the ability to play Tetris with solar panels—it just gets harder.”

Grace Kennedy-Panda and her sister co-own a Bay Area solar business started by their father in the 1980s. She says the regulations—and fees—change constantly: “Permitting a solar-battery system even recently was $200, and now it can cost three or four thousand dollars. There’s not a whole lot of clarity we can give our customers.”

Even installing appliances that in some jurisdictions have become pretty standard can be a bureaucratic rat nest in the Bay Area. Consider electric heat pumps, which replace gas or oil furnaces and are an easy way to cut both energy use and emissions. Getting them permitted is onerous in many Bay Area cities, building decarbonization policy expert Sam Fishman says. Gas furnaces and water heaters are greenlit quickly because building departments are used to them, but put a heat pump water heater in a garage, and you might be subject to requirements that really only make sense for gas appliances, such as raising it on a stand or installing bollards to make sure a car can’t run into it. “There’s an assumption that things need to be done in a perfect, buttoned-up way,” he says. “Checking too many things and going through so much process only adds the most tiny margin of safety and health improvement and is actually costing thousands of dollars.”

The extra costs are high enough that many locals install heat pump appliances without pulling permits—but the rebate programs for low-income residents, who benefit the most from these money-saving appliances, all require copies. The problem has reached the point where the California legislature is weighing a “heat pump access act” to standardize and streamline permitting.

All this red tape might be necessary if it were in response to some epidemic of fires caused by badly installed solar panels. But that epidemic doesn’t exist—not in Australia, not in Germany, not in California. I’ve spent some of my life as a volunteer firefighter, and I can tell you what causes blazes: not heat pumps or solar panels but space heaters, which are what many poor people use to heat their homes. Think about California, where big gas explosions have caused carnage, and whose massive wildfires are clearly linked to global warming—against which solar panels are the best weapon. Even worse, the sparks that set off these blazes often come from drooping utility transmission lines brushing up against dry foliage—whereas more rooftop solar means fewer new peaker plants and dangerous transmission lines. “We’re over-indexing certain kinds of fire prevention,” Cotter says. “The individual house versus the mass catastrophe. We feel much more comfortable piping natural gas, which we ignite to cook our foods and heat our homes. We know it’s not safe for our planet, nor for the people around it that have to breathe the fumes. But we’re okay doing that because we’ve been doing it for 100 years.”

If all of this sounds like a place where an anti-regulatory right might find common ground with an environmentally minded left, well, there are signs of it happening. The deep-red Utah legislature this past winter became the first in the country to allow balcony solar. In the Southeast, a group called Conservatives for Clean Energy has pushed Republican legislators forward on solar power. Its biggest victory came in Florida, where it helped convince Gov. Ron DeSantis to veto anti-solar legislation—in the three years since, the Sunshine State has seen a respectable boom in solar installations. “That allowed us to say, ‘Here’s a Republican governor who helped us save rooftop solar,’” says Mark Fleming, head of CCE and a former aide to former Rep. Patrick McHenry (R-N.C.). The group focuses on economic arguments—in many rural counties in the Southeast, solar projects are among the biggest taxpayers—but especially when it comes to rooftop solar, its case is partly ideological. “There’s a private property rights thing—an ‘I’ll do what I want on my land’ kind of argument,” Fleming says.

Polling has long found that solar power is popular across the political spectrum. My sense, having lived most of my life in dirt-road districts, both red and blue, is that conservatives are often deeply attracted to the idea of producing their own power. If you have your own energy source up on the shingles, then your home really is your castle. But unless you absolutely reject government authority, you still need those permits. One of Fleming’s board members at CCE, Stew Miller, has run a solar installation company in North Carolina’s Research Triangle for 16 years. “Raleigh has instant permitting, which is great,” he said. “But other jurisdictions want us to take 100 photos, even though they may only look at four or five of them. When you’re up on a roof and it’s 95 degrees and they want a picture of every single panel—it gets to be very tedious. Our crews just resent it.”

Right now, the world wants to go solar—but the Trump administration is bucking that trend. A few weeks before the November election, Trump declared that solar was “all steel and glass and wires and looks like hell.” (Somewhat mystifyingly, he added, “And you see rabbits, they get caught in it.”)

One possibility is that America will simply sit out the global solar boom in the same way Cubans, thanks to endless embargoes, still drive ’57 Chevys. Perhaps, having self-embargoed from the clean energy future, America will someday be a living museum of coal-fired power plants and basement furnaces.

If we aren’t going to be left behind, we’re going to have to push. Engineers and scientists have done their job, dropping the price of clean energy 90 percent in a decade. Now environmentalists, entrepreneurs, YIMBYs, advocates for clean air, and local communities have our own job to do: convincing everyone else that rooftop solar is no longer “alternative” energy. As costs have plummeted, solar has gone from being the Whole Foods of energy to the Costco of power—available in bulk, on the shelf, and cheap in most of the world.

If you’re feeling helpless against the administration’s attacks on the environment, you might want to join a big fall day of action, Sun Day, which will celebrate clean power, and push for solutions like SolarAPP+. We need to take on utilities, shake up the public utility commissions, and start to get Congress back on the side of the future. I’m hoping that a nationwide celebration of clean energy might prompt the same kind of momentum we’ve seen from housing advocates over the last few years, who’ve made headway pushing for zoning codes to finally be reformed. “We’ve got the hardware solved,” says OpenSolar’s Andrew Birch. “We’ve got the sunshine. Now it’s all about getting rid of the friction.”