Ukraine to join NATO

Lithuania continues to battle for Ukraine to join NATO

Defense Minister Dovilė Šakalienė warns the world is under attack from a “new axis” of Russia, China, North Korea and Iran.

By Jacopo Barigazzi

From Washington to Warsaw there's a growing chorus of politicians who want to slam the door on Ukraine's hopes of joining NATO, but one of the alliance's most endangered member countries is adamant that Kyiv's hopes must not be dashed.

Lithuania “will never give up” on the idea that Ukraine has to be in NATO, Defense Minister Dovilė Šakalienė told POLITICO. 

Lithuania is seen as one of the countries most exposed to a possible Russian attack thanks to the Suwałki Gap, a sparsely populated stretch of land on the border with Lithuania and Poland that divides the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad and Russian ally Belarus.

Bruno Kahl, Germany's foreign intelligence chief, has warned that Russian leader Vladimir Putin could use "little green men" to attack vulnerable Baltic countries like Estonia — a repeat of the tactics used in 2014 to seize Crimea from Ukraine.

"We are quite certain, and we have intelligence showing it, that Ukraine is only a step on the journey west," Kahl told the Table Media news organization in an interview published this week, adding: "There are people in Moscow who no longer believe that Article 5 of NATO works. And they would like to test it."

U.S. President Donald Trump has ruled out allowing Ukraine to join NATO as part of his effort to broker a peace deal in the war by shifting U.S. policy toward Moscow. He is backed by pro-Kremlin NATO members Hungary and Slovakia, while Poland's newly elected President Karol Nawrocki has also said he won't allow Ukraine to join the alliance.

But Šakalienė insisted that the final decision on which country gets to join should rest with the alliance and not with Putin.

 “If anyone else besides the alliance decides who is the member of alliance, then the credibility of the alliance is seriously breached," she said.

A Trump-driven wariness toward Ukraine was visible in the internal debate within NATO as to whether Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy should be invited to this month's leaders' summit in The Hague. That was never an issue under the previous U.S. administration of Joe Biden, which was happy to invite Zelenskyy to top meetings, although it was similarly unenthusiastic about allowing Ukraine into the alliance.

Lithuania insisted that Zelenskyy be there. “I would not support not having him in The Hague," Šakalienė said.

Kyiv said on Tuesday that Zelenskyy had been invited to The Hague.

"For us, as a state, the content of this meeting is important, and it is important for us that the outcome of this summit sends a signal of strength and unity, including about Ukraine," said  Ukrainian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Heorhii Tykhyi.

Trump is no great fan of Zelenskyy, as underscored in their tumultuous February White House meeting. But alliance chief Mark Rutte wants to minimize conflicts with Trump and focus the summit on agreeing a new defense spending target for NATO members, boosting it to 5 percent of GDP from the current 2 percent goal.

Šakalienė said that target should be met in 2030, two years ahead of the 2032 date proposed by Rutte, echoing similar sentiments from other frontline countries that want to see a rapid increase in alliance spending to deter Russia.

"That would be a victory for all of us," she said.

Part of the boost in NATO defense spending must be directed toward arming Ukraine, she cautioned. The “regeneration of the Ukrainian army is based not on declarations but on real capabilities.”

Lithuania also wants NATO countries to rapidly reach the alliance's newly approved capability targets — top-secret objectives regarding military equipment that allies need to have and operate.

"Our region, the northeastern flank of NATO, feels that it must come sooner," Šakalienė said.

Despite growing worries about the U.S. commitment to NATO under Trump, Šakalienė insisted: “The message from the United States is very consistent, that critical support for Europe is going to be provided no matter what.” 

However, she said NATO is expected to set up a formal review process to inform allies about any U.S. troop withdrawals from Europe. She said that will start after The Hague and "it will probably be very fast.”

Russia's war against Ukraine is part of a broader destabilization effort, Šakalienė warned. “The new axis of Russia, China, North Korea and Iran are cooperating very efficiently in their plan to end the current world order," she said, calling on the expected one-page NATO leaders' declaration from The Hague to reflect the danger of the moment.

"The United States and its allies and partners may have to deter and, if needed, to defeat both Russia and China simultaneously," she said.