Revenue surge

The one Bay Area transit agency seeing a major ridership, revenue surge

First set of data illustrates Caltrain's new electric era

By Bill Buchanan

Since beginning to go electric in August, Caltrain has seen a surge in riders and gained $400,000 in fares in October compared with the same time the year before. New trains and improved service appear to be the attraction for riders, but the success hasn’t been without complications. 

More than 753,000 passengers rode its trains during October, Caltrain said earlier this month in a news release, the first month of fully electric service between San Francisco and San Jose after the conversion from diesel-powered trains this summer. That’s up 54% from the year before, according to the release, and the average weekday ridership of nearly 27,000 showed 38% growth from October 2023.

The top reason for the big numbers appears to be the modern trainsets and the faster, more frequent service, Caltrain spokesperson Randol White told SFGATE. He downplayed the return-to-office edicts from major employers like Salesforce and Amazon, adding that they don’t seem to be a major factor — at least so far.

“We’re generally observing growth throughout the system rather than clustered around certain stations,” White said. “So we expect the new service is the primary draw.”

Enthusiasm for the service is easy to find up and down the tracks. San Bruno City Councilmember Tom Hamilton said people love the new trains. “They love being able to use the [onboard] wi-fi and tables and all that stuff,” he said.

Caltrain is particularly jazzed by the big gains on weekends — up 169% on Saturdays and 142% on Sundays. That ridership is “higher than it was pre-COVID,” White said. “Caltrain’s new half-hourly service is clearly attracting a lot more people to the system.”

Caltrain finished converting its San Francisco-to-San Jose service to the new trainsets on Sept. 21. (Diesel trains still operate on the unelectrified segment from San Jose to Gilroy.)

The biggest challenge after switching from old trains to new sets was an uptick in “vandalism, trespasser incidents and heat restrictions,” according to White, plus the hurdles that come with moving from a diesel system to an electric one.

Incidents especially harmed schedules in September, when only 78% of all trains were on time. That was the worst performance in a year; Caltrain’s standard is 95%. 

White said there was an immediate course correction the following month. 

“As of October, we have seen improvements on both fronts,” he said, adding that crews can fix technical issues “far faster than they could a few months ago, and we’re seeing fewer major incidents leading to substantial delays.” On-time performance for November is just shy of 93% so far.

September’s surge in vandalism and trespassing was dramatic. A power outage caused problems on Sept. 23, Caltrain’s first all-electric weekday. Trespassing caused 3,959 minutes of train delays for the month, up about one-third from August. Delays from vandalism rocketed to 578 minutes, from just 7 minutes the month before.

Attention from the media and the public may have contributed to trespassing by attracting crowds of people curious to see the new trains, but who were perhaps less savvy about safe railroad operations. In a more devious reason, the publicized shift to electricity also likely alerted copper thieves to new targets. 

“A substantial amount of news coverage about Caltrain’s electrification may have attracted more trespassers than usual, as we’ve seen a decrease since,” White said. “Vandalism may have followed a similar pattern, with additional interest due to more infrastructure containing copper wire.”

The trains draw power from overhead wires and to combat vandals, Caltrain started installing copper-free equipment, White said.

The number of fatalities on the tracks — one of Caltrain’s longtime public issues — continues to be a concern. While the agency announced earlier this year it was no longer publicizing deaths by suicide, to discourage copycats, there were 13 recorded deaths this year up to July 1. Since Aug. 1, Caltrain has had seven more fatalities, said spokesperson Dan Lieberman — six since it began including some electric service in August.

“Caltrain is continuing to improve its infrastructure to prevent members of the public from accessing our tracks,” he said, “from grade crossing improvements to implementing new technologies.”

Electric trains can stop faster than the diesel trains can, which could save lives when people or vehicles stray onto the rails. Even so, trains now run faster and more often than before Sept. 21. Caltrain continues to advocate for safety.  

“It’s best if people cross railroad tracks only at designated crossings,” White said. “This is still a 345-ton vehicle traveling up to 79 miles per hour.”

The increased ridership has also boosted fare revenue, which for October totaled $4.68 million, up 9.3% from a year earlier. That’s promising for the service, although not enough to head off the financial problems that Caltrain and other Bay Area transit systems expect, as weekday travel remains well below prepandemic levels. Caltrain anticipates operating deficits of $36 million in fiscal year 2026, $45 million in fiscal year 2027, and it grows from there.

“The recent growth in our ridership is cause for optimism,” White said, though it’s unlikely to “increase so dramatically as to completely negate the upcoming fiscal cliff.”