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My simple blog of pictures of travel, friends, activities and the Universe we live in as we go slowly around the Sun.



September 30, 2024

Exact revenge

Trump’s promise to exact revenge won’t be hindered by mere laws

Story by Philip Bump

Former president Donald Trump was in Erie, Pa., over the weekend, where he offered a new proposal for curtailing the crime that he claims is plaguing the country at record levels: extrajudicial violence.

He began by claiming that Vice President Kamala Harris “created something in San Francisco”: a law where you can steal up to $950 of merchandise from a store. This, of course, isn’t true; state voters passed an initiative in 2014 that, among other things, made such theft a misdemeanor instead of a felony, in part to address prison overcrowding. Nonetheless, he had a solution.

“Now, if you had one really violent day,” Trump said, then detoured briefly into praise for one of his allies in Congress. “One rough hour — and I mean real rough — the word will get out and it will end immediately. End immediately. You know, it will end immediately.”

It’s not clear who would be engaging in this roughness. It falls into the same vague domain as his May 2020 social media post warning those engaged in violence that “when the looting starts, the shooting starts.” Did he mean that store owners would be shooting, and does he mean that store owners — or perhaps the local employees of national merchandisers — would be enforcing that “rough” hour of backlash? Or did he mean, in both cases, that law enforcement would be allowed to take the gloves off? At another point in his speech, he did say, “We have to let the police do their job.”

A Trump campaign spokesman claimed that Trump was joking, but the former president has endorsed forms of punitive policing in the past. During a speech on Long Island in 2017, a phalanx of officers standing behind him, Trump offered up the putatively joking suggestion that police should feel free to crack criminal suspects’ heads against the tops of police cars as they were being detained. Never mind that those suspects might not be guilty of any crimes; this was a way for Trump to present his unfailing and uncomplicated support for local police and opposition to criminals.

Trump has never presented any understanding of how policing balances the power of physical restraint and detention with the constraints of the law and civil rights. But, then, as president he never presented any appreciation for the ways in which the balance of powers constrained the power of the chief executive. Quite the opposite: His allies on Capitol Hill and the Supreme Court, rather than enforcing those constraints, helped erode them. One of Trump’s campaign promises is that he’ll do the same, at least for his allies.

During his presidency, there were multiple occasions on which he demonstrated his indifference to constraints on power that he preferred be unconstrained. When a man in the Pacific Northwest shot and killed a Trump supporter, for example, Trump praised federal law enforcement for not taking him in alive.

“The U.S. Marshals went in to get him. And in a short period of time, they ended in a gunfight. This guy was a violent criminal and the U.S. Marshals killed him,” he said at the time. “And I will tell you something: That’s the way it has to be. There has to be retribution when you have crime like this.”

This was during the unrest that followed the police killing of George Floyd in Minnesota in May 2020. It was one of several moments in Trump’s presidency when he reportedly pushed for the use of live ammunition against those he presented as threats.

Trump’s refusal to respect the emotionless way in which justice is designed to work obviously also manifests in his own brushes with the law. His reaction to the investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 election was to fire the head of the FBI and to cast federal law enforcement as corrupt and biased — because the exercise of police power against him was unacceptable. He rejects his subsequent indictments as biased. He pardoned allies swept up in the Russia probe (even after some admitted guilt) and offered clemency to other ideological allies who had been prosecuted. He pardoned soldiers accused of war crimes, casting them as victims of an unfair system rather than those found culpable by a fair and just one.

The idea of justice as being blind never seems to have appealed to Trump, any more than does the idea of an independent federal bureaucracy. In each case, he’d rather have the apparatus of power deployed in the way he wishes without constraint. This is what he promises his supporters: criminal investigations of prominent Democrats, a national sweep aimed at deporting immigrants regardless of status, government officials centered on reflecting his will.

Trump’s view of power is that of a guy who ran his own business for decades and relied on expensive teams of attorneys to help him skirt the law. He manifested this approach decades ago, with his full-page ad in New York tabloids demanding that the state reintroduce the death penalty for the teens arrested and accused of assaulting a jogger in Central Park. Those teens — known as the Central Park Five — were later exonerated. Trump to this day refuses to accept that his demand for execution was a mistake.

This is the entire point of the justice system: to work slowly in an effort to avoid mistakes before then bringing the weight of government power to bear. Trump, seemingly like many Americans, appears to believe that it is somehow weak. That removing prejudices in an effort to effect justice evenly means that too many criminals go unpunished.

But, of course, this is also in part because Trump’s definition of “criminal” is expansive. His claim that thieves were rolling into stores with calculators to stay under $950 — as he purported in Erie — is simply an extreme example of the country’s imaginary threats. He regularly presents the actions of his opponents as illegal and the lack of subsequent accountability (which is a function of those things not being illegal) as a failing. Just unshackle police or Trump’s allies for a little bit, let them kill a few people, and those things won’t happen anymore. That may actually be true, but it is very much not the sort of society in which many people would want to live — and not the sort of government that America was created to have.

It is worth noting that Trump has the support of numerous rank-and-file police organizations. His suggestions that police be allowed to exercise power without the constraints of protecting suspects’ rights or shielding the innocent have not deterred police unions from offering their endorsement. His relentless insistence on empowering police officers to act in the way they see fit has, instead, built robust support in a moment where policing and civil rights are still seen as being in tension.

At Trump rallies, the pro-police, “thin blue line” flag sits alongside signs reading “I’m voting for the convict” — meaning Trump. Because there’s a shared understanding between Trump and his supporters about which laws count and which ones don’t.

Still burning....

Russian Tanks Get Trapped in Their Own Defense Lines in Kursk Region

Story by Camilla Jessen

Arecent Russian counterattack in the Kursk region near the Ukrainian-held village of Plekhovo ended in a mishap for Moscow's troops.

According to a Forbes report on September 29, the 15th Pyatnashka Brigade found their armored vehicles stuck in their own defensive structures, which were originally designed to stop Ukrainian advances.

The Russian military column became ensnared in anti-tank traps and infantry trench complexes that their own engineers had built.

As the Russian forces struggled to maneuver through the obstacles, Ukraine's 129th Territorial Defense Brigade seized the opportunity, launching a wave of explosive drone strikes, further complicating the situation for the Russians.

The very defenses meant to slow down Ukrainian assaults ironically worked in favor of Kyiv’s forces.

The immobilized Russian units were unable to effectively counter the Ukrainian offensive, turning the defensive lines into a liability.

This incident followed an earlier surprise attack by Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region on August 6, which had already caught the Russians off guard and disrupted their defensive strategy.

Romania

Russians cross red line: Romania responds

Manon Pierre 

Romania isn't happy. On Friday, a Russian drone reportedly entered its airspace for a very short period of time.

The incident occured for less than 3 minutes in the skies over Romania, but enough to anger the Romanian ministry, which condemns the Russian attacks and describes them as “unjustified”. According to the ministry, this is a violation of international law.

On Friday night, Russian drones targeted Ukrainian civilian infrastructure, not far from the Romanian border. The Romanian authorities also specified that a Russian drone had “potentially” violated their airspace around 3am.

To monitor the area, Romania deployed two Spanish F-18 jets as well as two of its own F-16 jets between 1:52am and 3:22am.

Although no impact zone has been identified in Romania, the ministry has launched an investigation.

Debate...

Vance and Walz debate in New York City on Tuesday. Here’s what you need to know

Ximena Bustillo

Vice presidential candidates Ohio Sen. JD Vance (R) and Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz (D) will face off in a debate Tuesday for the 2024 election cycle.

This will be the only time the candidates meet on stage and simultaneously present their policy positions to the broader American public, which may be less familiar with them than with their partners on the presidential ticket.

The two hold similar roles in their respective campaigns: to appeal to working-class voters in the "Blue Wall" states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin this fall.

Here’s what you need to know about what is historically the only debate between the candidates for vice president.

When and how to watch?
This debate will be hosted by CBS News in New York City at 9 p.m. ET.

CBS Evening News anchor and managing editor Norah O’Donnell and Face the Nation moderator and chief foreign affairs correspondent Margaret Brennan will moderate the debate at the CBS Broadcast Center. The debate will air live on CBS, CBS News Streaming Network and Paramount+ and stream live without a cable login on CBSNews.com.

Follow NPR's live blog on Tuesday for the latest updates, analysis, fact-checking and color — and also watch the CBS News Vice Presidential Debate Simulcast. And you can listen to NPR’s special debate coverage on many public radio stations and in the NPR app.

Who are the running mates?
Former President Donald Trump announced Vance as his running mate on the first day of the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee this summer.

The first-term senator, who was once a critic of Trump, came to political relevance when he wrote the book Hillbilly Elegy, blaming Biden and Democrats for the struggles of the rural economy he grew up in. In the Senate, Vance has positioned himself against Republican leadership at times but on issues like abortion, immigration and election integrity, he's closely aligned with Trump.

Vice President Harris chose Walz just weeks after she was tapped to replace President Biden at the top of the ticket.

Walz got the nickname “Coach Walz” for being a former football coach and teacher. As governor, Walz secured several progressive wins in his state, including clean energy mandates, universal free school meals, family and medical leave benefits and abortion protections.

Since his nomination, Vance has had to address controversies that are likely to come up again during the debate, including couch-related jokes and criticisms of him calling prominent Democrats “childless cat ladies.” Vance has also come under fire for spreading the false claim that Haitian immigrants are eating pets in Ohio.

Walz, a two-term governor, has also faced questions about his response to riots in Minneapolis following the 2020 murder of George Floyd and widespread fraud during COVID-19 under a federal program intended to provide food assistance to students after schools closed. Audits have suggested lapses in oversight by the state Department of Education.

Walz has been getting help for the debate from Pete Buttigieg, the U.S. Transportation Secretary. Buttigieg helped Harris with her VP debate prep in 2020. It wasn't immediately clear whom Vance is preparing with.

The military records of both candidates are also likely to come up.

Vance criticized Walz for his military record, including for saying he carried weapons “in war” when he had not been in combat.

Walz, who served in the National Guard for 20 years and reenlisted after Sept. 11, only saw wartime deployment to Italy in 2003. Vance, who served in the Marines and did a six-month deployment to Iraq, also has not seen combat.

What are the rules for the debate?
The debate will last 90 minutes and both campaigns have agreed to a set of rules.

There will be no audience in attendance, and the candidates will each take a stand behind podiums. Candidates will have two minutes for closing statements. Vance won a virtual coin toss on Sept. 26 and elected to go second with his closing statement.

Vance and Walz will not be allowed to have prewritten notes or props, and topics and questions will not be shared in advance with campaigns. Unlike the presidential debates, microphones will remain on but CBS News reserves the right to turn them off.

According to CBS News, each candidate will get two minutes to answer each question, and the other candidate will get two minutes to respond. Then, each candidate gets one minute for further rebuttals. At the discretion of the moderators, candidates may get an additional minute each to continue a discussion.

What comes next?
This is likely to be the last debate before Election Day. Across several states, mail ballots have already started going out.

Harris challenged Trump to one more debate on Oct. 23 but Trump declined, saying it was “too late.”

Election Day is Nov. 5.

Darker rhetoric

Trump turns to darker rhetoric as voting begins

Danielle Kurtzleben

At a pair of weekend speeches, former President Donald Trump continued to escalate the insults, threats and lies that have become hallmarks of his political campaigns.

At a speech in Erie, Pennsylvania, Trump suggested that police violence could deter crime.

Trump falsely claimed that police in California, Harris’ home state, do not charge people for shoplifting merchandise valued under $950. Trump then said police should be allowed to be “rough” on criminals to send a message.

“One rough hour, and I mean real rough, the word will get out, and it will end immediately. End immediately. You know? It’ll end immediately,” he repeated.

He immediately turned to insulting President Biden and Democratic nominee for president, Vice President Harris.

“Crooked Joe Biden became mentally impaired. Sad. But Lyin’ Kamala Harris – honestly, I believe she was born that way,” he said, mispronouncing Harris’ first name. “There’s something wrong with Kamala, and I just don’t know what it is, but there is definitely something missing. And you know what? Everybody knows it.”

That’s an insult he had used earlier in the weekend, in a rally in Prairie du Chien, Wisconsin.

“Joe Biden became mentally impaired. Kamala was born that way,” he told the crowd. “She was born that way. And if you think about it, only a mentally disabled person could have allowed this to happen to our country,” he said, in reference to undocumented immigrants entering the country.

The new insults and threats come as voting has begun in some parts of Pennsylvania, kicking off what is thus far a tight presidential race. Trump and Harris are deadlocked in that state and other swing states. In that environment, Trump has chosen to maintain his harsh rhetoric, rather than to soften in an attempt to win over potentially swayable undecided voters.

In his Pennsylvania speech, Trump told the crowd to make sure their friends who might be open to him get out and vote.

“We also need you to find as many other new voters as you can. So go get them,” he said. “We have some voters – they’re for us, but they never voted. And they’re gonna want to vote. Just a little bit prodding, they’ll come out, and they’ll vote.”

That may be the winning strategy for a candidate who shows little interest in moderating either his policies or his authoritarian rhetoric. While many moderate voters may be firmly decided against him, there are tens of millions of nonvoters, some of whom are presumably sympathetic to Trump.

Trump regularly repeats the lie that he won the election in 2020 and he did the same over the weekend, sowing distrust in America’s election system just weeks out from the final day of voting on Election Day. He told the Erie crowd that Democrats “cheat in this state, especially in Philadelphia,” a heavily Democratic city, despite providing no evidence.

“We have to have a landslide because they cheat so damn much,” he later said, and then added, “If we win, when we win, we’re going to prosecute people that cheat on this election. And if we can, we’ll go back to the last one, too, if we’re allowed.”

From speech to speech, Trump repeats the same ideas, but also alters – and often amplifies – them over time. For example, prior to this weekend, he had several times referred to Harris as unintelligent. This weekend, he decided to cast her as mentally disabled.

An earlier American electorate may have found these kinds of statements disqualifying, but Trump has made them regular fixtures over nine years of campaigning.

From insulting John McCain for being a prisoner of war to the infamous Access Hollywood tape to calling his opponent “mentally impaired,” voters have regularly heard him say outrageous things, but his support among his base and with Republican voters as a whole has not changed substantially.

12 election lies

12 election lies Trump is using to set the stage to dispute a potential 2024 defeat

By Marshall Cohen and Daniel Dale

Former President Donald Trump has escalated his long-running assault on the integrity of US elections as the 2024 presidential campaign enters its final stretch, using a new series of lies about ballots, vote-counting and the election process to lay the groundwork to challenge a potential defeat in November.

Nonpartisan democracy experts say they’re seeing many of the same warning signs that were blinking red before Election Day four years ago, when Trump flooded the zone with election lies and conspiracy theories that he amplified after losing to Joe Biden. His campaign of deception culminated in the attack on the US Capitol on January 6, 2021.

“The threats have not abated; they have only increased,” said Lindsay Daniels, a senior director at the nonpartisan Democracy Fund, which works to strengthen US democracy. “We saw a lot of activity in 2020 around peddling false claims and frivolous lawsuits. We are already seeing signs now, stage-setting, that these things may be attempted again.”

Trump has made at least 12 distinct false claims over the last two months that raise baseless doubts about the validity of a potential victory by Vice President Kamala Harris. (Recent polls suggest the race is very close, and Trump could certainly still win.)

Trump, who wrongly insists the 2020 election was marred by massive fraud, said at a debate in June that he will accept the 2024 results regardless of who wins “if it’s a fair and legal and good election.” A majority of Trump supporters in battleground states like Michigan, Arizona, and Pennsylvania now say they’re “not at all confident” or only “just a little” confident the results will be accurately tallied, according to recent CNN polling.

Trump has lied about the legitimacy of the vote counts in key states, the reliability of mail-in and overseas ballots, the size of Harris’ crowds at rallies, and more. Here’s a fact check of these and other claims.

False claim: Harris can only win through cheating
For months, starting long before any votes were cast in the 2024 general election, Trump repeatedly claimed that he already has enough votes to win and simply needs to ensure Democrats don’t cheat — insinuating that the only way he could possibly lose is through fraud.

Trump said at an August rally in Arizona: “The only way they can do anything is if they cheat like hell, and we’ve been victims of that. … We don’t need the votes, we just want to make sure that they don’t cheat.” He said at an August rally in North Carolina: “Our primary focus is not to get out the vote, it’s to make sure they don’t cheat, because we have all the votes you need.”

And in a Friday speech in Michigan, he said, “If I lose - I’ll tell you what, it’s possible. Because they cheat. That’s the only way we’re gonna lose, because they cheat.”

Facts First: This is nonsense. It’s obviously entirely possible that Harris could legitimately win the presidential election. While it’s also entirely possible that Trump wins legitimately, he could not possibly know for sure at the time of these comments that he already had “all the votes you need.”

False claim: It was ‘unconstitutional’ for the Democrats to replace Biden with Harris
Trump has repeatedly claimed the fairness of the 2024 election was tarnished because Biden dropped out of the race in July and Harris subsequently became the Democratic presidential nominee. In August, he called Harris’ ascension “an unconstitutional coup” and claimed Biden’s “Presidency was Unconstitutionally STOLEN from him” by Harris.

Facts First: Trump’s claims are false. There was nothing unconstitutional or unlawful about Biden dropping out and Harris then being chosen by Democratic delegates as the party’s presidential nominee.

Biden quit the race before he had become the official Democratic nominee — the party makes the official nomination at its convention, which hadn’t happened yet. That means Biden dropped out before his name was placed on any state ballots.

CNN spoke in July with election authorities in 48 states, and not a single state authority, Republican or Democratic, said there were any legal issues with Harris getting on the general election ballot in place of Biden after she was formally nominated in August. She did not end up facing obstacles getting on the ballot in any state.

And while Biden certainly faced heavy Democratic pressure to leave the race after his poor performance in a debate against Trump in June, the decision to drop out was his alone; he could have kept running if he had chosen to do so. In other words, the candidate switch was the product of politics, not a forcible takeover.

False claim: Voting by non-citizens is a widespread problem in US elections
Trump and his allies have repeatedly raised concerns that the 2024 election will be tarnished by widespread voting by non-citizens and undocumented immigrants.

Republicans put this issue front and center in April, when Trump and House Speaker Mike Johnson unveiled legislation to require all voters across the country to prove their citizenship. Efforts to pass the bill fizzled earlier in September amid disunity within the Republican caucus.

Further fanning the flames, billionaire Trump supporter Elon Musk has championed the conspiracy theory that Democrats are “importing voters” so they can create a “one-party state.” At the presidential debate earlier this month, Trump similarly accused Harris and Democrats of plotting to tip the election with illegal voters.

“Our elections are bad, and a lot of these illegal immigrants coming in, they’re trying to get them to vote,” Trump said. “They can’t even speak English. They don’t even know what country they’re in practically. And these people are trying to get them to vote.”

Facts First: This specific Trump claim is false, and it’s also generally untrue to claim that voting by non-citizens is a widespread problem plaguing US elections. There is simply no evidence to back up that claim; it’s already illegal for non-citizens to vote in federal elections, and the various safeguards already in place are working effectively to stop it from happening en masse.

Both liberal and conservative think tanks have found only a tiny number of examples of non-citizens voting in elections where they are ineligible. The right-wing Heritage Foundation’s database of confirmed fraud cases lists less than 100 examples of non-citizens voting between 2002 and 2022, amid more than one billion lawfully cast ballots.

Further, nonpartisan experts on election law say such cases are almost always caught, thanks to layers of identity verification built into the registration and voting process.

Here is CNN’s previous fact-check debunking false claims about non-citizens voting widely in federal elections. And here is CNN’s breakdown of the underlying data in key states, showing how Republicans have massively inflated the size of this problem.

Trump has a long history of blaming electoral losses on undocumented immigrants. When he won the presidency in 2016, he lost the popular vote by nearly 3 million — and to explain this away, he concocted the lie that “millions” of non-citizens had voted illegally.

False claim: The US Postal Service admitted it is ‘a poorly run mess’
In a social media post in mid-September, Trump claimed that the US Postal Service “admitted that it is a poorly run mess that is experiencing mail loss and delays at a level never seen before” and asked “how can we possibly be expected to allow or trust the U.S. Postal Service to run the 2024 Presidential Election?”

Facts First: Trump’s claim is false. There’s no evidence of the USPS ever admitting that it is a “poorly run mess.” Reacting to Trump’s comments at a September 19 press conference, Postmaster General Louis DeJoy said, “My response is like my response to everyone who says we’re not prepared for the election — it is that they’re wrong.”

DeJoy became postmaster general in June 2020 after being selected by the bipartisan USPS Board of Governors, whose members were all appointed by Trump. DeJoy has touted the fact that in 2020, USPS delivered 99% of all mail ballots within one week.

The National Association of Secretaries of State, an umbrella organization that represents election officials from both parties, started raising alarm bells earlier this month with a sharply worded letter to DeJoy expressing “ongoing concerns” about the postal service’s “ability to deliver election mail in a timely and accurate manner.”

In response, DeJoy said the USPS was undertaking “extraordinary measures” to make sure all mail ballots are delivered on time, including designated lines at post offices for people with ballots, extra deliveries and collections by letter-carriers, “after-hours” drop-offs to election offices, and keeping processing facilities open longer.

Asked by CNN for proof of the supposed USPS admission that it was a “poorly run mess,” a Trump campaign spokeswoman responded with two news articles that were not evidence.
The articles were about the recent letter that the election officials sent to DeJoy — which didn’t originate from USPS and wasn’t an admission of anything.

Trump has continued raising unfounded doubts about mail-in voting, predicting in a recent interview with a right-wing radio host that USPS “will lose hundreds of thousands of ballots, maybe purposely.”

There is no evidence of the USPS ever losing ballots on this scale, though isolated mishaps have occurred and been remedied in past election cycles. Furthermore, most mail-in ballots are trackable these days, with tracking tools offered in almost every state.

False claim: There is no identity verification for overseas and military voters
Trump rolled out a new lie in late September about military and overseas voting.

For this tiny slice of the national electorate, voters can receive and submit ballots over email, because they are civilians who live abroad or servicemembers that are stationed overseas.

These are often called “UOCAVA voters,” from the acronym for the federal law that set up this system: the Uniformed and Overseas Citizens Absentee Voting Act, which passed with bipartisan backing and was signed by Republican President Ronald Reagan in 1986.

The deadline for states to send out UOCAVA ballots was September 21. In a social media post two days later, Trump baselessly accused Democrats of using this program “to CHEAT” in the election. “They are going to use UOCAVA to get ballots, a program that emails ballots overseas without any citizenship check or verification of identity, whatsoever,” Trump claimed.

Facts First: It’s not true that UOCAVA ballots are sent to people with no verification “whatsoever” of their identity. These special ballots are only sent to registered voters who request them, and states require people to verify their identity when registering.

David Becker, founder and executive director of the nonpartisan Center for Election Innovation & Research, who regularly advises state and local election officials from both parties, blasted Trump on social media for “actively spreading false information about a bipartisan program.”

“Military and overseas ballots have gone out to registered, verified voters (as required by law) and they are secure,” Becker wrote the day after Trump’s claim. “I can tell you election officials of both parties take great pride in giving military and overseas voters a secure voice in our election, and it’s unfortunate to see a candidate spread lies about that process.”

Democrats Abroad, an arm of the Democratic Party, condemned Trump’s “absurd rant” in a statement to CNN, and said UOCAVA ballots “are only sent to people whose registration have been confirmed and validated by their local elections office.”

False claim: Harris spied on Trump’s campaign
Trump launched a new attack on Harris after news broke over the summer that Iranian hackers breached some Trump campaign email accounts and sent some of the stolen materials to journalists and Democratic campaign operatives.

“THE FBI CAUGHT IRAN SPYING ON MY CAMPAIGN, AND GIVING ALL OF THE INFORMATION TO THE KAMALA HARRIS CAMPAIGN. THEREFORE SHE AND HER CAMPAIGN WERE ILLEGALLY SPYING ON ME,” Trump posted on Truth Social in mid-September.

Facts First: Trump’s claim that the Harris campaign spied on him is baseless. Iran did breach the Trump campaign, but there’s no evidence anyone from the Harris campaign was involved in the breach, solicited hacked materials, or weaponized these materials in any way. The Harris campaign condemned Iran’s “unwelcome and unacceptable” election interference.

The federal government announced in August that Iranian hackers successfully targeted the Trump campaign, and that they also attempted to breach the Biden-Harris campaigns.

US intelligence agencies later disclosed that the Iranian hackers sent unsolicited messages containing some of stolen Trump materials to some people associated with the Biden campaign. This included “a few individuals” who are currently involved with Harris’ campaign, her team told CNN.

Despite Trump’s claims, there is no evidence the Iranian hackers provided the Harris campaign with “all of the information” they stole. The US spy agencies said “an excerpt” of some stolen material was provided. More importantly, the US spy agencies said “there is currently no information indicating those recipients replied” to the hackers.

The Harris campaign’s condemnation of Iran and refusal to use the stolen material  is a stark contrast to how Trump embraced Russia’s hack-and-leak against his Democratic opponent Hillary Clinton during the 2016 campaign. Even after the US announced that the leaks were part of a Kremlin plot to interfere with the US election, Trump and his campaign built a strategy to capitalize off Russia’s illegal actions and used the emails to attack Clinton on a near-daily basis.

False claim: California’s vote counts are dishonest
Trump has wrongly claimed for years that US vote counts are plagued by major fraud. In the last month, he has even declared that he would win Democratic-dominated California if there was an “honest” vote count. (California’s large population means that a candidate’s vote totals there have a significant influence on the national popular vote — which Trump has baselessly cast doubt on for years, even when he won the presidency in 2016.)

Trump said in September that “if I ran with an honest vote counter in California I would win California, but the votes are not counted honestly.” In late August, he said, “If Jesus came down and was the vote counter, I would win California, okay?”

Facts First: This is fiction. The votes are counted honestly in California, as they are in every other state. Trump loses California because it is an overwhelmingly Democratic state that no Republican presidential candidate has carried since 1988.

Trump lost the state in 2020, fair and square, by more 5 million votes and more than 29 percentage points. It’s ridiculous to suggest that fraudulent vote-counting was responsible for a margin that large.

Like several other states, California conducts post-election audits to verify the accuracy of the vote count. These audits use mathematical models and statistics to access the accuracy of the overall tally based on random samples of ballots.

False claim: Election officials use early voting to commit fraud
Trump has encouraged his supporters this year to make use of early voting. But at a rally in Pennsylvania last week, he suggested that the lag time between when an early ballot is cast and Election Day is used by nefarious actors to fraudulently manipulate the count.

“Now we have this stupid stuff where you can vote 45 days early. I wonder what the hell happens during that 45 — ‘Let’s move the … see these votes, we’ve got about a million votes in there, let’s move them, we’re fixing the air conditioner in the room,’ right? No, it’s terrible. What happened the last time was disgraceful, including right here. But we’re not going to let it happen again,” Trump said.

Facts First: This is another phony narrative. There is no indication that there was any counting fraud involving early ballots in 2020, in Pennsylvania or anywhere else. Early ballots are securely stored in election offices until they are counted. People who interfere with ballots during this period are subject to prosecution.

False claim: Trump won Minnesota in 2020
Trump declared in March and May that he won Minnesota in the 2020 election.
At a Minnesota rally in July, he claimed, “If they don’t cheat, we win this state easily, Okay? They cheat.” He added, “They’re the most crooked. They cheat. They cheated in the last election, and they’re going to cheat in this election, but we’re going to get them.”

Facts First: Trump’s claims are false.

He lost Minnesota by more than 7 percentage points in the 2020 election, fair and square, and he can certainly lose the state legitimately in 2024.

The state hasn’t chosen a Republican for president since 1972, and Trump has consistently trailed in opinion polls against Harris — whose running mate is the sitting Minnesota governor, Tim Walz.

False claim: A large percentage of mail-in ballots in Pennsylvania are fraudulent
Pennsylvania is one of the most important swing states in the 2024 election. Trump claimed in a social media post in September that an “election expert” interviewed by right-wing commentator Tucker Carlson had suggested a large percentage of mail-in ballots in Pennsylvania are fraudulent.

“An interview by Tucker Carlson of an election expert indicates that 20% of the Mail-In Ballots in Pennsylvania are fraudulent. Here we go again! Where is the U.S. Attorney General and FBI to INVESTIGATE? Where is the Pennsylvania Republican Party? We will WIN Pennsylvania by a lot, unless the Dems are allowed to CHEAT,” he wrote.

Facts First: There is no valid basis for the claim that 20% of mail-in ballots in Pennsylvania — or any other state — are fraudulent. This claim appears to be based on a flawed 2023 poll by a right-wing pollster, not the discovery of any actual problems with ballots in Pennsylvania or anywhere else from 2020, 2022 or this year.

The 2020 election was fair and secure in Pennsylvania, as it was in the rest of the country, according to officials from both parties who affirmed the results. There was a tiny smattering of voter fraud in the state in 2020 —– some of it committed by Trump supporters — but not even close to enough to have affected the outcome.

Pennsylvania’s Department of State said in a September email to CNN: “Voting by mail is safe and secure, and no evidence exists of widespread mail voting fraud in Pennsylvania.
Mail ballot fraud has been proven to be exceptionally rare. Claims of systemic voter fraud are devoid of any supporting evidence and have consistently been rejected by judges, government agencies, and election experts across the political spectrum.”

So what was Trump referring to?

Trump and his campaign didn’t specify what interview he was talking about. But in April, Carlson interviewed someone who spoke of a 2023 poll conducted by a right-wing firm, Rasmussen Reports, that has itself promoted false election claims. Among likely voters in that poll who said they had been absentee or mail-in voters in 2020, 21% claimed to have filled out a ballot for a friend or family member and 17% claimed they had voted in a state where they were no longer a permanent resident.

There are lots of reasons not to treat this poll as evidence of mass fraud in Pennsylvania.

First, this was a national poll, not a Pennsylvania poll. Second, the pollster is viewed skeptically by many polling experts. Third, people making claims to a pollster about their past behavior does not prove that they actually did what they said.

Fourth, as FactCheck.org pointed out earlier this month, it’s legal to fill out a ballot for a voter with disabilities who has asked for the assistance — so someone saying they filled out someone else’s ballot isn’t necessarily a confession of fraud. Fifth, as FactCheck.org also noted, the wording of the residency question was ambiguous enough that people could have thought it was asking about legal behavior — such as having voted in 2020 in a different state from the one they currently lived in three years later.

False claim: Harris fabricated an image to inflate her crowd size
Since 2020, various Trump supporters have claimed that Biden’s unimpressive crowd sizes are proof that Biden’s 2020 vote total, about 81 million, was fraudulently inflated. (Trump earned about 74 million votes in 2020.)

In August, Trump launched an attack on Harris’ crowd sizes. He claimed on social media that Harris should be disqualified from the race because, he claimed, she had faked an image of a large crowd at her rally at a Michigan airport. He wrote: “There was nobody at the plane, and she ‘A.I.’d’ it, and showed a massive ‘crowd’ of so-called followers, BUT THEY DIDN’T EXIST!”

He also wrote, “This is the way the Democrats win Elections, by CHEATING - And they’re even worse at the Ballot Box. She should be disqualified because the creation of a fake image is ELECTION INTERFERENCE. Anyone who does that will cheat at ANYTHING!”

Facts First: Trump’s claims are false. Harris did not create a fake image of the Michigan crowd using artificial intelligence or anything else. As genuine photos and videos showed, and reporters on scene confirmed, she had a real crowd of thousands of people at the airport event.

The false claim that the Harris campaign was pushing fake images of this Michigan crowd had been circulated by some far-right influencers before Trump adopted it.

Asked by CNN in August why he made the false claim, Trump said he “can’t say what was there, who was there” and could only speak about his own large crowds. But he made another false claim about Harris’ crowds at the presidential debate against Harris in September, wrongly saying, “People don’t go to her rallies.”

False claim: Biden or Harris orchestrated Trump’s legal cases
Trump has repeatedly claimed this year that “all” of the legal cases against him, including local and state cases, were all orchestrated by Biden for the purpose of “election interference,” to help Democrats win the election.

In July, when Biden dropped out of the race and Harris became the Democratic candidate, Trump began claiming she was the one behind the cases.

Facts First: These claims are false. There is no evidence that Biden personally orchestrated any of these cases. Trump never presented any evidence for that claim, let alone for suddenly making the vice president the target of the claim after months of directing it at the president.

There is no sign that either Biden or Harris had any role in bringing charges against Trump in Manhattan, New York (where Trump was convicted of 34 felony counts of falsifying business records) or Fulton County, Georgia (where an election subversion case against Trump is on hold over a battle about whether the district attorney should be disqualified). Those prosecutions have been led by elected local prosecutors, both Democrats, who do not even report to the federal government.

Trump’s two federal criminal cases, one about election subversion and one about Trump’s retention of classified documents after his presidency, were brought by a special counsel, Jack Smith. A judge dismissed the classified documents case in July, but Smith is appealing.

Smith was appointed by Attorney General Merrick Garland, a Biden appointee, but that is far from proof that Biden orchestrated the prosecutions – and certainly not proof that Harris did. Garland has said he would resign if Biden ever asked him to take action against Trump, but expressed confidence that Biden would never put him in that position.

Continued drop

New FBI statistics show continued drop in US crime in first six months of 2024

By Josh Campbell and Eric Bradner

Crime in the United States dropped throughout the first six months of 2024, according to preliminary figures released Monday by the FBI, continuing a trend in falling crime rates the bureau recently noted for 2023.

The new numbers show murders from January to June dropped 23% compared with the same period in 2023, while violent crime fell 10% and reported rapes decreased by 18%. Aggravated assaults during that period decreased 8% year over year, according to the data, while robberies fell 14% and reported property crime was down 13%.

Monday’s release is certain to be viewed closely by the campaigns of former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris, as crime has been a prominent political issue in the 2024 presidential election. Trump has made crime — specifically violent crimes committed by undocumented immigrants — a core focus of his campaign and frequently highlights specific attacks on Americans.

Signs at Trump’s event in Wisconsin on Saturday included pictures of non-citizens arrested for allegedly committing violent crimes. A pair of monitors flashed the slogan, “End the invasion of small town America.” Another in a rotating series of slides showed an image of migrants in a crowded classroom with the message: “Open Borders = Packed Classrooms.”

“Hundreds of people have been murdered because of her action at the border, and thousands more will follow in rapid succession. She should be impeached and prosecuted for her actions,” the former president said, referring to Harris.

Trump has also frequently made false claims, including saying over the weekend that criminal offenders who had entered the United States over decades, including during Trump’s term, all arrived while Harris and President Joe Biden were in office.

And Trump wrongly claimed that the statistics are specifically about people who are now living freely in the US; the figures actually include people who are currently in jails and prisons serving criminal sentences.

Harris, meanwhile, often invokes her own history as a prosecutor, pointing to her time as California attorney general and efforts to prosecute transnational criminal organizations.

She has contrasted that with Trump, who was convicted in New York in May on 34 counts of falsifying business records and faces criminal charges in Georgia and on the federal level stemming from his efforts to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election.

In a trip to the US-Mexico border in Arizona last week, Harris also criticized Trump for his role in tanking a bipartisan border security bill on Capitol Hill earlier this year. And she pledged to do more to reduce illegal border crossings and “pursue more severe criminal charges against repeat violators.”

The preliminary figures in the FBI’s Quarterly Uniform Crime Report, which covers January through June, come with important limitations. For one, the bureau relies upon data voluntarily submitted by policing agencies.

The numbers released Monday were gathered from more than 14,800 of the just over 19,300 law enforcement agencies from across the country, according to the bureau. The new preliminary figures do not include data from Los Angeles and may only include partial figures from Chicago.

Crime analysts also say quarterly data is imprecise, as law enforcement agencies have the remainder of the year to audit and correct any reporting errors before final annual figures are published by the FBI.

Jeff Asher, criminal justice analyst and co-founder of consulting firm AH Datalytics, previously told CNN, “We have other data sources that point to the same trends, but the degree of those declines is probably being overstated due to the methodology being employed by the FBI.”

The latest preliminary snapshot of falling crime rates in 2024 comes a week after the FBI issued a more fulsome report outlining its finalized numbers for 2023, which showed a drop in crime last year across numerous categories.

The 2023 report, which included figures from every major city in the nation, showed a dramatic 12% drop in murder and nonnegligent manslaughter, as well as a 3% fall in violent crime.

Assassinations

Netanyahu rides wave of euphoria over assassinations as his political fortunes turn around

Analysis by Mick Krever

On October 7, Israeli Prime Minister’s Benjamin Netanyahu’s self-styled image as “Mister Security” seemed irrevocably shattered by the deadliest day for Jews since the Holocaust. The Jewish homeland and its leader had failed to protect the people. How could he possibly survive?

The polls told us as much. He had formed an extremist coalition government in November 2022 on the back of the 32 seats his Likud party secured in the 120-seat Knesset. After Hamas’ attack, a string of opinion polls suggested that were elections held, Likud would get just 17 seats, putting the government’s long-term survival in jeopardy.

Nearly a year later, Netanyahu has staged a remarkable turnaround. Though Likud would still struggle to form a government were elections held today, a brutal campaign of airstrikes in Lebanon and assassinations across the Middle East in recent weeks have buoyed the prime minister to heights unimaginable in the immediate aftermath of Hamas’ attacks almost a year ago.

A poll released Sunday by Israel’s Channel 12 showed that Likud would win 25 seats were elections to be held today, making it the largest party. Netanyahu enjoys 38% support, according to the survey.

“The regional confrontations are good for Netanyahu,” veteran pollster and analyst Dahlia Scheindlin told CNN. “They seem quite clearly to be the contributing factor to his recovery.”

Israel’s aggressive military maneuvers against its enemies, she said, have helped restored a sense of agency and strength destroyed by Hamas’ October 7 attack. The war in Gaza is popular in Israel, but it brings with it complex questions around long-term occupation, relations with the Palestinians, and most importantly for Israelis, the fact that 101 hostages are still held there.

Israel’s military attacks elsewhere are seen at home as more black and white. “It’s clear enemies of Israel,” she said, referring to those whom Israel says it is targeting. “There’s no ambiguity around this question of occupation, et cetera.”

The aggressive military campaign began in April, when an airstrike on Iran’s embassy complex in Syria killed a top commander in Iran’s elite Revolutionary Guards. Israel did not comment but was widely understood to be responsible. That was followed by a July airstrike on Beirut that killed Hezbollah’s most senior military official, Fu’ad Shukr. The next day, an explosion in a Tehran government guest house killed Hamas’ political leader, Ismail Haniyeh.

Relentless bombing campaign

Earlier this month pagers and walkie-talkies used by Hezbollah in Lebanon exploded across the country, killing dozens and maiming thousands – marking a new phase in that conflict, which began when Hezbollah attacked Israel on October 8, in solidarity with Hamas and the Palestinians in Gaza. Around 60,000 civilians have since been forced from their northern Israeli homes by Hezbollah’s rocket attacks.

Israel has for weeks now operated a relentless bombing campaign across Lebanon against Hezbollah’s infrastructure and leadership. Massive airstrikes in southern Beirut have killed a string of Hezbollah leaders, including its elusive and powerful secretary-general, Hassan Nasrallah, as well as more than 1,000 people in Lebanon. It has also forced about 20% of the population – about 1 million people – from their homes, according to aid agencies and the Lebanese government.

The families of hostages in Gaza, meanwhile, lead the charge in accusing Netanyahu of prioritizing his political survival over the national interest – an accusation he strenuously denies.

And yet it is undeniable that at a time when Israel is waging war in Gaza, Lebanon and Yemen, the prime minister continues to devote significant attention to domestic political machinations.

On Sunday he brought a former rival, Gideon Sa’ar, into his government as a minister without portfolio. The fact that Sa’ar has no ministerial responsibilities underlines the fact that his appointment was largely political.

“When I ordered the assassination of Hassan Nasrallah, we all knew that an entire nation was behind this decision,” Netanyahu said Sunday evening alongside Sa’ar. “The cohesion of the ranks is a necessary condition for us to stand firm in these testing days, and for us to achieve the goals we have set.”

Netanyahu had for weeks been intending to fire his defense minister, Yoav Gallant, in favor of Sa’ar. But that scheme drew withering criticism from national security veterans and was finally quashed when Israel escalated the war in Lebanon.

Broader political support

Nadav Shtrauchler, a political strategist who has worked closely with Netanyahu, told CNN that bringing Sa’ar into government was intended to have three effects.

First, he said, bringing in Sa’ar – a veteran right-wing politician – would give Netanyahu leverage over far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, who was previously convicted for inciting terrorism. Ben-Gvir is not Netanyahu’s “cup of tea, and he’s not reliable,” Shtrauchler said.

Second, Sa’ar could help protect Netanyahu from the ultra-Orthodox parties who have the power to bring down the government. Those parties – with whom Sa’ar is said to be close – want to pass a law exempting ultra-Orthodox men from mandatory military service, a change that would threaten Netanyahu’s coalition. The defense minister opposes the move, but Netanyahu “thinks that Gideon Sa’ar can be with him and soften Gallant,” Shtrauchler said.

Finally, he told CNN, broader political support is important as the war with Hezbollah escalates, and the possibility of a ground invasion looms.

Israel widens attacks on Iran-backed militant groups

It is of course impossible to say to what degree political considerations are playing into Netanyahu’s decision to escalate the war in Lebanon, though returning the Israeli civilians to their homes in the north is a real policy imperative.

“It wouldn’t surprise me if part of one of his considerations was so that Israelis feel like – after a year of having been through this horrible shock and trauma and surprise – that they have responded,” Scheindlin, the pollster and analyst, said. “That makes Israelis feel that they have a kind of catharsis, a sort of closure.”

Netanyahu’s most viable rival has long been Benny Gantz, a military heavyweight who for years served as Israel Defense Forces’ chief of the general staff, with his party polling second in recent opinion polls. His backing for Israel’s escalating attacks around the region underlines the degree to which Netanyahu has neutered his opposition.

“I would like to congratulate the political echelon, led by the prime minister and the minister of defense, who made the decision on the action in Lebanon,” Gantz said on Sunday. “Better late than never.”

Netanyahu is the beneficiary. But it is undeniable that a deep depression affects this country, despite a wave of euphoria in the wake of Nasrallah’s assassination that saw TV reporters toasting his death on national television.

“There’s no real joy in Israel now,” Scheindlin said. “Even a sense of satisfaction for the moment or even a momentary euphoria – nothing’s going to take away the reality that this is a very somber time, especially because of the hostages.”

115 dead

At least 115 dead in the Southeast following Helene, officials say

The death toll from Helene has risen to at least 115. Here is the breakdown of deaths by state, according to CNN’s tally:

North Carolina: 47
South Carolina: 26
Georgia: 25
Florida: 11
Tennessee: 4
Virginia: 2

Survived?

This Florida Neighborhood Has Survived Many a Flood. But Helene?

After a record storm surge battered the Shore Acres community in St. Petersburg, many residents are having second thoughts.

Jake Bittle

Domonique Tomlinson didn’t know much about the Shore Acres neighborhood of St. Petersburg, Florida, when she bought a house here four years ago, but she learned fast. Just a few weeks after she moved into her single-story teal home, a high tide overwhelmed her street’s drainage system and pushed water into her house. The same thing happened again during Hurricane Idalia in 2023; she lost furniture and belongings worth thousands of dollars. Then there was just the everyday flooding to contend with. It happened more times than she could count, when she had to wade through calf-high water on her street to get to her teaching job, wiping herself with Lysol when she got to work.

Tomlinson and her husband were racing to install plywood flood panels and sandbags on Wednesday as Shore Acres prepared for a historic storm surge from Category 4 Hurricane Helene. As she loaded a Peloton into her car, she said she was fed up with flooding over and over again.

The following night, Helene delivered the largest storm surge on record to Shore Acres, pushing water not only into Tomlinson’s house, but into the houses of neighbors who had never flooded. Waiting out the storm on higher ground in downtown St. Petersburg, she kept up with reports from her neighbors who had stayed behind: The entire streetscape vanished as saltwater seeped in through sandbags and flood panels, filling up kitchens and living rooms.

“It’s just a really sad situation,” she told Grist. “We won’t rebuild, it’s not worth it.” 

“The realtors did not disclose that. We knew that the street flooded, but we had no idea the history of the house.”

Even before Helene, Shore Acres looked like a casualty of sea level rise and faulty development. The waterfront neighborhood had begun to flood multiple times a month, even when it wasn’t raining, and residents were paying some of the highest flood insurance rates in the country, with the median annual premium in the neighborhood set to reach around $5,000. The city was racing to mitigate the flooding, but almost every street in the neighborhood had at least one “For Sale” or “For Rent” sign on it. 

But Helene may turn out to be the neighborhood’s coup de grace: The hurricane pushed well over 6 feet of storm surge into Shore Acres on Thursday, the highest on record for the community. Based on early reports, the wall of water flooded hundreds of homes with 4 feet of water or more, dealing another hit to its already shaky real estate market. And as sea levels and flood insurance rates continue to rise throughout the eastern United States, from Florida to New England, Shore Acres may turn out to be not an outlier but a bellwether for future fragility in the real estate market and coastal economies more broadly. 

Shore Acres is one of numerous areas in the coastal United States that were built for a different climate than that of today: The area expanded in the 1950s on what one developer called “a pretty sorry piece of land” made up of pine forest and marsh, and much of it sits just a few feet above sea level. The area has always seen occasional flooding during the highest tides, but now parts of it go underwater several times a year as autumn tides slosh over bulwarks and gurgle up through storm drains. 

Even on sunny days, standing water is now a frequent occurrence in the neighborhood. When cars drive too fast through flooded streets, they create wakes that can splash up into driveways and damage other vehicles, or even rush into homes.

Tracy Stockwell, who moved to the neighborhood last year from Atlanta, has erected a series of signs and barriers in front of his house that read “Wake Stop” and “Slow Down, Watch Your Wake.” He said drivers have splashed through standing water multiple times and flooded his house—something he had no idea was possible when he bought it.

“The realtors did not disclose that,” he said, while preparing to ride out the storm on his second floor. “We knew that the street flooded, but we had no idea the history of the house.” Earlier this year, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, a Republican, signed a law that required home sellers to disclose past flood insurance claims, but the law doesn’t go into effect until next month.

As the flooding in the neighborhood gets worse, residents have seen their flood insurance rates skyrocket under a new federal policy. The Federal Emergency Management Agency, or FEMA, which administers the national flood insurance program that serves around 5 million US households, began to roll out this policy in 2022. The median cost of flood insurance in the neighborhood is around $2,000 per year, more than double the national rate, and may double again to around $5,000 as FEMA raises rates to phase in the new program. Many residents already pay far more than that.

Some neighbors have been able to save money on insurance costs by elevating their homes on stilts above flood level. Federal regulations require a homeowner to do this if their house suffers damage equivalent to more than half its value. But elevating a home requires a lengthy permitting process and can cost hundreds of thousands of dollars; moreover, FEMA’s new insurance pricing system offers a lower discount for doing this work than the old system did.

For people who can’t afford to elevate or can’t keep up with rising insurance rates, the only option is to leave, and as of Wednesday there were at least two dozen “For Sale” signs in the neighborhood. 

Even so, some local boosters are projecting confidence in the real estate market.

“I think people understand now that flooding is going to occur,” said Kevin Batdorf, a real estate agent and the head of the Shore Acres Civic Association. “Flooding in Shore Acres is well known. It’s not something that is a secret. Some people have sold, and the houses are selling, because we live in a great neighborhood.” He went on to say that the neighborhood has seen small selloffs in the past after flood events, but that the market always calms down after a few months as new people move in. 

But as Helene bore down, even those with deep connections to Shore Acres weren’t sure about their long-term future there. Tomlinson has said she won’t rebuild, and Stockwell said he planned to at least consider selling his home. They imagined their neighbors would be contemplating the same.

“That guy left, and that person left, and that person’s selling,” said David Witt, a furniture store manager, as he pointed at the houses on his street. He and his wife moved a few years ago into his wife’s childhood home, which is raised a few feet off the ground, and they’ve come within an inch of flooding several times. They are both attached to the home, Witt said as he lined his door with sandbags, but they aren’t sure if they want to stay for good.

There have been at least three other large floods in Shore Acres in the past 13 months, beginning with last year’s Hurricane Idalia and continuing this year with a no-name winter storm and Hurricane Debbie in August. The flood from Idalia damaged more than 1,200 homes in the neighborhood—close to half of all its structures. The neighborhood accounted for more than 80 percent of the damage St. Petersburg suffered during that storm. Helene traced a similar path to Idalia, scraping up the Gulf Coast and making landfall in the Florida Panhandle, but brought a storm surge several feet higher.

The city of St. Petersburg has invested millions of dollars over the past year to mitigate its flooding issue, installing backflow preventers that stop storm drains from overflowing onto streets when tides are high. It will soon begin construction on a $16 million pump station on the area’s lowest-lying street, Connecticut Avenue, replicating a strategy used in Miami Beach and New Orleans with money from the state government.

Batdorf, the civic association leader, said residents are working with the city to speed up these improvements and speed up grant programs that help residents elevate their homes.

“There’s so much more the city could do,” he said, “and there are other communities that have solved the issue of flooding.” He said that despite the city’s progress on installing backflow preventers, the sunny-day flooding issue hasn’t gotten better. Furthermore, there’s nothing the city of St. Petersburg could have done on its own to stop a storm the size of Helene. To mitigate such a surge would likely require a multibillion-dollar barrier of the kind the Army Corps of Engineers has contemplated building in Miami and New York City. 

“They’ve always had flooding here,” Witt said, “but it’s never been this bad.”

Reeling in the Wake

The Southeast Is Reeling in the Wake of Hurricane Helene

The intense storm, which has left more than 60 people dead, is a product of climate change, the FEMA administrator said Sunday.

Julianne McShane

Hurricane Helene wreaked havoc across the Southeast over the past several days, leaving more than 60 people dead and providing a chilling example of how climate change is worsening storms.

Since the hurricane made landfall in northern Florida on Thursday, it killed at least 64 people, including 1-month-old twins and their 27-year-old mother in Georgia, and a couple in their 70s and a 6-year-old relative who drowned in North Carolina, the Associated Press reported Sunday. North Carolina was particularly hard hit, with western parts of the state receiving more than two feet of rainfall, leading to the closure of about 300 roads, according to federal authorities.

The storm also brought more than a foot of rain to parts of Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina, as well as massive power outages, including, at one point, in 40 percent of South Carolina, the AP reports. As of Sunday afternoon, there were more than 2.2 million power outages across the Southeast, with more than 870,000 in South Carolina and more than 600,000 in Georgia, according to PowerOutage.us.

In a statement Saturday, President Joe Biden said he was “deeply saddened by the loss of life and devastation” that Helene wrought, adding, “As we turn toward recovery efforts, we will make certain that no resource is spared to ensure that families, businesses, schools, hospitals, and entire communities can quickly begin their road to rebuilding.”

Before the storm made landfall, Biden approved emergency aid requests from the governors of Alabama, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, and South Carolina, and sent 1,500 federal personnel to the region, according to information the White House released Friday. On Sunday, the Federal Emergency Management Agency announced that Biden had approved major disaster declarations for North Carolina and Florida, unlocking more aid for both states.

“Doug and I are thinking of those who tragically lost their lives and we are keeping all those who loved them in our prayers during the difficult days ahead,” Vice President Kamala Harris said in a statement Saturday, adding that she had been briefed on the situation by FEMA officials and would continue receiving regular updates.

On CBS’s Face the Nation on Sunday, FEMA Administrator Deanne Criswell blamed climate change for the storm’s rapid intensification—and warned that the devastation was a harbinger of what’s to come in our increasingly warming planet. “In the past, when we would look at damage from hurricanes, it was primarily wind damage, with some water damage, but now we’re seeing so much more water damage, and I think that is a result of the warm waters, which is a result of climate change,” Criswell said.

Hillbilly

Pride and Prejudice in JD Vance Country

I spent years investigating the story of Vance’s ancestral region. It’s not what “Hillbilly Elegy” would have you believe.

Arlie Russell Hochschild

Editor’s note: Eight years ago, on the eve of the 2016 election, Mother Jones published a story by Arlie Russell Hochschild, a renowned sociologist who had spent five years interviewing a group of white Southern conservatives to understand what drives the way they see America, politics, and Donald Trump.

Trump was not the focus of Hochschild’s research, but she soon discovered that he was there in the background, tapping into the “deep story” her interviewees told about themselves and their community. They saw themselves, she wrote, as waiting patiently in line for their shot at the American Dream—but others, whom they saw as undeserving and who were often Black or immigrants, were cutting in line. “The government has become an instrument for redistributing your money to the undeserving,” they believed. “It’s not your government anymore; it’s theirs.”

It didn’t matter if that story was factually true (Hochschild documented that it was not): It drove how people felt and how they would ultimately vote. It gave them an explanation for why the success they had been told was their birthright seemed elusive, why their families might even need benefits like food stamps or disability income that they had been told only the weak would accept.

“Trump solves a white male problem of pride,” Hochschild wrote. “Benefits? If you need them, okay. He masculinizes it. You can be ‘high energy’ macho—and yet may need to apply for a government benefit. As one auto mechanic told me, ‘Why not? Trump’s for that. If you use food stamps because you’re working a low-wage job, you don’t want someone looking down their nose at you.’”

Trump would not, of course, deliver on these voters’ economic needs. But he would deliver on their need for pride. And it’s that issue that Hochschild returns to in her new book, Stolen Pride, set in the heart of what Trump calls the forgotten America—the town of Pikeville, Kentucky.

In 2017, when Hochschild’s research for this book began, Pikeville was the site of a neo-Nazi march that became a prelude for the deadly rally in Charlottesville, Virginia. The march was a focal point for Hochschild’s interviews with everyone from an imprisoned white supremacist gang member to a self-described “trailer trash” TikTok creator. In Pikeville, the deep story was all about what Hochschild came to call the pride economy.

“We live in both a material economy and a pride economy, and while we pay close attention to shifts in the material economy, we often neglect or underestimate the importance of the pride economy. Just as the fortunes of Appalachian Kentucky have risen and fallen with the fate of coal, so has its standing in the pride economy…

“And our place in the material economy is often linked to that in the pride economy. If we become poor, we have two problems. First, we are poor (a material matter), and second, we are made to feel ashamed of being poor (a matter of pride). If we lose our job, we are jobless (a material loss) and then ashamed of being jobless (an emotional loss). Many also feel shame at receiving government help to compensate that loss. If we live in a once-proud region that has fallen on hard times, we first suffer loss, then shame at the loss—and, as we shall see, often anger at the real or imagined shamers.”

In places like rural Kentucky, that sense of shame and lost pride is connected to what Hochschild identifies as the paradox of the American Dream: A self-sufficient, middle-class life has become harder to attain in many rural, conservative communities—but people in those communities are more likely to blame themselves for this.

“From roughly 1970 on, the United States gradually divided into two economies—the winners and losers of globalization. Rising in opportunity have been cities and regions with diversified economies, often the site of newer, less vulnerable industries, which typically hired college-educated workers in service and tech fields. Declining in opportunity have been rural and semi-rural areas, offering blue-collar jobs in older manufacturing industries more vulnerable to offshoring and automation. These also include regions where jobs are based on extracting oil, coal, and other minerals, the demand for which fluctuates with world demand.

“The urban middle class, which leans Democratic, has become a so-called mobility incubator, while many rural blue-collar areas, now leaning Republican, have become mobility traps. Between 2008 and 2017, one study found, the nation’s Democratic congressional districts saw median household income rise from $54,000 to $61,000, while incomes in Republican districts fell from $55,000 to $53,000…The second part of the paradox lies in core ideas about hard work and individual responsibility for one’s economic fate.

“When asked in a national survey why it is that a person ends up being poor, 31 percent of Republicans (party members or those who lean that way) say it is due to ‘circumstances beyond their control,’ in contrast to 69 percent of Democrats. Similarly, 71 percent of Republicans but only 22 percent of Democrats think ‘people are rich because they work hard.’…Thus, people growing up in the two kinds of economy experience different degrees of moral pinch between the cultural terms set for earning pride and the economic opportunity to do so.”

It’s this moral pinch—being caught in a declining regional economy while being told you have yourself to blame for your economic struggles—that the people Hochschild interviews describe from a variety of angles. For some, it fuels hate; for many, resentment; for all, a kind of bewilderment.

Like Hochschild’s 2016 book, these stories are even more timely now than they were when she conducted the interviews, in part because of Trump’s running mate selection of JD Vance, whose fame began with his book, Hillbilly Elegy. But where Vance concludes that the fix for places like Appalachia is to exclude others from the economy—both the material and the pride kind—Hochschild’s interviewees offer more nuanced views. All but one reject the white supremacists marching through their town. But many also are drawn to the way Trump and Vance make them feel seen. She talks with TikTok creator David Maynard, born literally yards away from Vance’s ancestral hometown of Jackson, Kentucky, and his wife, Shea, who show her the places where they grew up, fell in love, and built a life together. It’s a “reverse Hillbilly Elegy,” Hochschild writes, a story of wrestling with the paradox of the American Dream.

“If I’m a Moore’s Trailer Park white trash person, the only narrative I have tells me that I’m white, so I’m privileged,” Maynard tells Hochschild. “That’s the something I have and that must put me ahead. But what if it doesn’t put me ahead? I’m left with nothing because I’m lazy and stupid. There’s no excuse. If you’re white and poor, people think, ‘What’s wrong with you that you’re stuck at the bottom?’”

Another of Hochschild’s interviewees, Tommy Ratliff, digs deeper into that sentiment: “I could have become a white nationalist,” he tells her. Why that’s so, and how he didn’t, is the subject of the chapter excerpted below. —Monika Bauerlein

“In college,” Tommy Ratliff told me, “we had a guest speaker who gave us a lecture on the American Dream. He told us all we had to do was to work real hard, stick to a plan, and open a bank account. We should save a little money each month for our kids’ future education. At the time, I was earning $9.50 an hour behind the counter at a hobby shop and had to repay a loan I took out to pay for college and child support. Part of me just felt like telling the guy, ‘Shut up.’”

A tall man with long, wavy brown hair fanned across broad shoulders, gentle and direct in manner, Tommy was wearing his favorite black T-shirt, which said, “Not perfect, just forgiven.”

“Maybe I could earn my way to the American Dream if nothing else went wrong. That’s if I don’t get sick, if I don’t need a new heat pump, if my electric bill weren’t $400 a month, if my ex-wife didn’t get hooked on drugs, if my parents weren’t alcoholics, if my disturbed brother didn’t move in with me and raid my refrigerator while I was at work. Sure, the American Dream is all yours if nothing goes wrong. But things go wrong.”

Tommy explained what that meant as we walked through maple, redbud, and pines around his natal family’s quietly sheltered valley enclave. We walked by the home of his Uncle Roy, now widowed and seldom home. Roy had gotten Tommy out of scrapes, bought him a car, lent him money. Roy’s wife, Tommy’s aunt, became the “one I was closest to” when words became slurred and voices were raised in his own home next door.

We passed a shed used by Tommy’s paternal grandfather, now deceased, a former miner and World War II vet who had been at Iwo Jima as American GIs raised the flag. He had been decorated with a Purple Heart, long proudly kept like a holy icon in a glass cabinet in his grandfather’s hallway. A nearby shed held his grandfather’s beekeeping equipment and a wooden cane he had made in his retirement, together with a long wooden chain miraculously carved from a single piece of wood.

Visiting the small hillside cemetery near the end of a logging road where Tommy’s ancestors were laid to rest, we ran into Tommy’s Aunt Loretta washing family gravestones and restaking the VFW flag by his grandfather’s grave. A retired nurse, Loretta enjoyed Civil War reenactments but was uninterested in Pikeville’s upcoming white nationalist march. “Those guys come and go. I don’t pay them mind,” she said.

“The very idea that I had a place on a class ladder came to me slowly,” Tommy mused. “First, I thought of my family as middle class, and I was proud of that. As a kid, class was a matter of the kinds of toys I got at Christmas. Don’t get me wrong. I was happy to get what I got—GoBots, Action Max, Conan the Barbarian, Turok, the Warlord. But the kids at school had better-made versions of the toys I got. So, in toys, I felt somewhere below the middle.” Then when Tommy’s mother’s Texan relatives came to visit, he said, “I could see they looked around and thought my mom had married down and felt sorry for us. One cousin asked me, ‘What do you think a redneck is?’ and I wondered why she asked me that. Did she think I was one?”

We walked along a dirt path to a gurgling stream in back of Uncle Roy’s and Aunt Loretta’s homes—a wondrous wooded childhood haunt, filled with pine, poplars, birch, and pawpaw trees, that Tommy had long ago christened “Fairyland,” a term he still used with reverence.

“After 14 or 15, I used to spend a lot of time in this forest,” Tommy recalled, looking around at the trees as if at the faces of dear friends. “George [a childhood pal] and I would fight monsters and trolls and orcs and talking animals, like we saw in films about Narnia. We wore rounded strips of tree bark as body armor and used sticks as swords. I’d catch salamanders, frogs, and crawdads from the stream and let them go. We didn’t fish or hunt; we thought everything should be left the way it is. If you listened really close to the crickets and frogs sing to each other at night, first a song would come from one bank of the stream, then we’d hear an answer from the other. In the winter, we’d walk up the frozen streambed on the ice, then slide all the way down.” Listening to Tommy, I was reminded of a passage in Wendell Berry’s Jayber Crow: “Aunt Beulah could hear the dust motes collide in a sunbeam.”

“Growing up, my world was real small—Elkhorn, Dorton, Belcher, Millard, Lick Creek, places around our holler. I didn’t know what was going on outside my family and neighbors and these places,” Tommy said. “Elkhorn only had one red light, but it was a city compared to Dorton, nothing there except the school and a pizza place. Dorton was tough. In a lot of hollers, people only come out once a month [to shop or visit] and don’t like outsiders. Nearly everyone in my world—my parents, my two brothers, my best friend George, my neighbors and schoolmates, and the action figures we played with—were all white.”

When, after finishing high school and working a few jobs, Tommy enrolled at Clinch Valley College in Wise, Virginia, he made his world smaller still. “Dad never liked me or my brothers to talk. If we were at dinner, he told us, ‘Don’t talk.’ If we were in the car, it was ‘Don’t talk.’ If we had company, ‘Don’t talk.’” So at Clinch Valley, Tommy sat in the back of a large classroom, was assigned to no discussion group or advisor, feared going to his professor’s office hours, and never talked. At the end of the first semester, Tommy flunked out, imagining that he, not the college, had failed.

“I’m not sure if I wasn’t paying attention or if it wasn’t taught. But before college, honestly, I wasn’t very sure how Blacks got to America,” Tommy told me. “I learned about slavery from seeing Amistad [a film about a slave ship rebellion in 1839] and 12 Years a Slave [about a free Black man kidnapped and sold into slavery], and about the Holocaust from Schindler’s List.”

Tommy also learned about Black life through television: “For a while, we didn’t own a TV. Dad would rent one in his name and when the bill got too high, Mom would put it in her name. I watched The Cosby Show and thought those kids were a whole lot better off than I was. They got an allowance, and all they had to do was save it. Their parents didn’t yell or drink. They lived in a nice house, and the dad was fine with them talking.”

Yet in one program about Black family life, Tommy suddenly recognized his own. “I watched and loved every episode of Good Times,” a 1970s sitcom about a Black family in Chicago that struggled with such things as job losses, a car breakdown, and an eviction notice. “In one scene,” Tommy recalled, “the wife, Florida, is talking to her girlfriend, who confides, ‘I can always tell when it’s Saturday morning because I wake up with a black eye.’”

“What got me wasn’t the story. It was that people laughed at it. Florida’s friend laughed. Florida laughed. On the TV soundtrack, the audience laughed. As a kid, I remember wondering: Why did they all laugh? At night, I’d crawl into bed with my older brother. I could hear my dad downstairs drunk, yelling and cursing at Mom, hitting her, shoving her against the wall, and shouting, ‘That didn’t hurt!’ Mom was yelling at Dad, ‘Stop it!’ I was scared. I wanted to cry.”

As Tommy grew up, his parents’ lives spiraled. “In the 1980s, when I was in high school, Dad lost his job guarding a mine and got a job as a supervisor in a lumberyard. When the lumberyard closed, Dad worked for my Uncle Roy’s road crew cutting grass along public roads with a dozer at minimum wage. That’s when we fell behind in taxes. When my father fell off the dozer and injured his back, his doctor discovered he had cancer.” As funds ran down, Tommy said, “we went from three cars to one, which we could barely keep running. We applied for food stamps, which bothered my dad terribly. I wondered: Had we become that class of family? We felt ashamed.”

Then Tommy’s parents began to drink themselves farther downward. “Dad drank Early Times whiskey with Tab and Mom drank vodka with Sprite—all day long. By 6:00 p.m., I’d try to leave. They argued. Mom would cry. Dad would get mad at her crying. That’s when I heard him shout, ‘That doesn’t hurt.’”

The family house fell into disrepair and his parents moved out of it into a trailer, then asked to move in with one troubled son after another until, one by one, they died.

In the wake of his parents’ decline, Tommy’s own ordeal unfolded. An acquaintance asked him if she could move into his trailer to save on rent. The two became involved, she became pregnant, and at 19, Tommy married and briefly imagined he was glimpsing a life of satisfaction and pride. “I got baptized at the Free Will Baptist Church in a creek one midnight in December, total immersion. One man held my back, another my head. It was cold and I got sick. When I got better, I got a union job at Kellogg’s biscuit factory. We moved near her folks in Jenkins, and I thought, ‘For my American Dream, this is good enough,’ and it would have been if she’d been the right woman.”

But she was not. The baby was too much for her. The house was left in disarray. Tommy’s addicted brother moved into a spare room. Returning late from his job at Kellogg’s, Tommy had a head-on collision. When, after his medical leave, he tried to return to his job, Kellogg’s fired him.

Jobless, with a wife and child to support, with $225 due monthly for rent and $100 for power, Tommy began scavenging aluminum cans out of ditches to recycle, $25 per bunch. Other luckless neighbors competed for the good cans. “I knew people looked down on me because I knew how I looked at other people scrounging cans. But part of me still thought, ‘I’m not that kind of person.’ I’d spend a few hours visiting with Uncle Roy before I got around to asking to borrow money. He’d know why I came, which was embarrassing. I’d borrow his car if mine broke down or I was driving mine with dead tags. I looked for work, but you had to pass the drug tests first, and for a while, I was trying muscle relaxants, Valium, Ativan. Then it got to half a case of beer, then more.” After Tommy’s marriage dissolved, his loving and nondrinking in-laws took in Tommy’s son. Now, with Tommy on his own, his heavy drinking grew worse, from occasionally to every day, from with someone else to alone, to alone and a lot.

Drinking had its own pride system, Tommy discovered. “At the top were guys who could hold a lot without getting sloppy drunk, pay for the drinks, and share the high. In the middle ranks were angry drunks. There was a rule to never talk politics, so angry drunks would be mad at ‘the man keepin’ us down.’ At the very bottom of the hierarchy were the crying drunks. I was a crying drunk.”

Our walk through Fairyland was taking us to a cluster of branches, a long-ago-collapsed teepee Tommy and his pal George had once built as boys in a moment of childhood triumph, and Tommy began to relate the hardest moment of his life. “We all have different bottoms,” he reflected softly. “I reached my bottom when I overheard my dad—whom I’d always assumed was my real dad—call me his stepson. I was shocked; I’m not his real, biological son? Maybe that’s why he never liked me, seemed prejudiced against me. I’m the wrong blood and can’t do a thing about it.

“The world went dark. I gave up. All I saw was a wall of night. I had failed. That was my bottom. I was drinking alone, a quart of whiskey a day. I dreamt of driving fast into oncoming traffic. I had an appointment with a doctor to check on the beginning stage of cirrhosis of my liver. I was heading toward my own death.”

One of Tommy’s favorite musical artists was Jelly Roll, a white, Tennessee-born rapper who put Tommy’s feelings into words:

All my friends are losers.
All of us are users,
There are no excuses, the game is so ruthless. The truth is the bottom is where we belong.

In Deaths of Despair and the Future of Capitalism, Anne Case and Angus Deaton report a surprising finding: Although the United States had long been among the world leaders in extending its citizens’ life spans, since the turn of the 21st century, there has been an unexpected rise in premature deaths of white people in the prime of life, ages 45 to 54. The main causes are death by drug overdose, suicide, or alcoholic liver disease, which together claimed the lives of 600,000 people between 1999 and 2017. Especially hard hit have been white, blue-collar men without a bachelor’s degree.

Such men were not dying in heroic wars, battling fierce storms at sea, or toiling in coal mines. One by one, they were—and are—dying in solitary shame. In the obituary section of the Appalachian News-Express, I began to notice death notices showing young faces, sometimes listing young ages, but nearly always omitting the cause of death.

Tommy could name a number of local suicides. “The younger brother of a fifth-grade friend of mine shot another and then himself in the head. One guy drove drunk into a tree. My own brother Scott drove drunk off the road, and I believe that was a suicide. At one point, you could have almost counted me.”

Tommy remembers reading Christian Picciolini’s White American Youth: My Descent Into America’s Most Violent Hate Movement—And How I Got Out, the autobiography of a boy who was converted by a neo-Nazi. Picciolini was 14, smoking pot with a pal in a Chicago back alley, he writes, when a man in a muscle car drove up, stopped, and got out. The friend fled, but the man confronted the young Picciolini, took the joint out of his mouth, and said, “Don’t you know that’s exactly what the communists and Jews want you to do, so they can keep you docile?” By 16, now clean of drugs and with a purpose, Picciolini had become the leader of a group of Chicago-area skinheads, which he then merged with the yet more violent white supremacist Hammerskins.

“If I had been 14 and smoking in an alley and a man showed interest in me,” Tommy mused, “what if he dressed in camo, wore his ball cap back to front, and took me in? What if I began spending time at his house to get out of mine? And if my dad was beating me hard, and my parents were drinking, and I felt like they didn’t really know me or care? I ask myself: What would have happened? I could have felt the guy in the muscle car really cared about me.

“And what if that guy told me, ‘Your dad lost his job at the lumber mill because immigrants were coming in, or because a Jew closed it down’? I might have said, ‘Oh yeah,’” Tommy continued. “Or when I was going out with Missy [a mixed-race girl whom he invited to senior prom], what if he’d said, ‘Missy dumped you for that other guy. Black girls do that’? I might have said, ‘Oh yeah.’ Or when I flunked out of Clinch Valley community college and I couldn’t go home—my stepdad had converted my bedroom into his hobby room to make fishing lures—the man could have said, ‘Colleges are run by commies.’ I might have said, ‘Oh yeah.’”

In these ways, Tommy speculated, an extremist might offer recruits a raft of imagined villains onto whom to project blame and relieve the pain of shame. David Maynard had focused on a missing national narrative that might protect poor whites from the shame of failing to achieve the American Dream. Tommy was focused on something else: the shamed person’s vulnerability to those offering to blame a world of “outside” enemies.

On the third day of Tommy’s detox, he walked outside and seated himself on a patio chair, miserable. “My head was hung low, and I was staring at the ground between my legs. Then I suddenly noticed a trail of ants. Each ant was carrying a tiny load—a crumb, a bit of leaf, a piece of dirt. Then I saw it: One ant was carrying another ant as big as he was. That dead ant was useless, not doing its part, being a load instead of carrying a load. I thought, ‘See that dead ant? That’s me, right there. I could be that carrier ant. I do not want to be that dead, carried ant.’ That was one of the greatest moments in my life. That carrier ant brought me back.”

The Latin term prode, “to be of use,” is the origin of the word pride. Tommy’s grandfather had been honored for his bravery in the mines and on the battlefront. He was a carrier ant. For Tommy, it would be through helping others out of drink and drugs that he was to carry a load himself.

Tommy had hit bottom: shame. But he had rejected the temptation to shift blame to all the racial targets offered up to him and had come to see how blame, placed like a covering over disappointing life events, might falsely seem to relieve his pain. He was to find his way forward to creative repair. By the time I was walking with Tommy through Fairyland, he had happily remarried to a medical researcher and earned a bachelor’s degree, graduating on the dean’s list. He’d also taken a job at the Southgate Rehabilitation Program, where he counseled recovering addicts.

Imagining the leader of the upcoming march, Tommy reflected, “That guy’s selling white nationalism as a quick fix to make a guy who’s down on himself feel like he’s strong and going places. With racism, that guy would just be handing anyone like I was another drink.”

In 1996, Purdue Pharma had 318 sales representatives. Four years later, the number had risen to 671. It dispatched 78 sales representatives to Kentucky alone. In 2000, Kentucky had only 1 percent of the US population, but it had a higher than usual proportion of coal miners who had suffered injuries and needed pain relief, and it was one of the regulation-averse states Purdue focused on. For each drug purchase, such states called for only two receipts documenting the purchase—one for the pharmacist, a second for Purdue. More closely regulated states, mostly blue states, called for three copies—the third going to a state medical official monitoring the prescribing of controlled substances.

The requirement of that third copy had an astonishing effect. As later research would reveal, distribution of Purdue’s opioid pain medication OxyContin was 50 percent higher in the loosely regulated states (requiring two copies per drug purchase), such as Kentucky, Tennessee, and West Virginia, than it was in more tightly regulated states (requiring three copies per purchase), such as New York, California, and Illinois.

Within these “freer” states, Purdue targeted doctors who were already prescribing large amounts of opioids and the pharmacists from whom those high-prescribing doctors ordered drugs. Health care professionals were given OxyContin fishing hats, stuffed plush toys, and music CDs (Get in the Swing with OxyContin). Purdue offered free, limited-time prescriptions for a seven- to 30-day supply of OxyContin—a drug that, it was found later, produced similar withdrawal cravings and symptoms as heroin. Crucially, Purdue offered its salespeople large bonuses for increasing OxyContin sales. In addition to the average sales representative’s annual 2001 salary of $55,000, annual bonuses ranged from $15,000 to nearly $240,000.

In 1996, when the company first introduced OxyContin, sales were $48 million. By 2000, sales had hit $1.1 billion.

In 2021, the rate of deaths from drugs in the United States was 32 per 100,000. In Pike County, the rate was 91 per 100,000. Between 2016 and 2018, Kentucky had the nation’s highest rate of children living with relatives other than their parents—9 percent. Another 5 percent were in foster care.

Through Tommy Ratliff, I met one of the men he counseled, James Browning, and I asked James how drugs had affected his sense of pride. He answered with a clarity he credited to his recovery. “I felt shame about some things that happened to me when I was a kid. To hide from my shame, I turned to drugs. Then I was ashamed of being on drugs. So I was part of a shame cycle. I took drugs to suppress shame, then felt shame for taking drugs. I disappointed my mom. I destroyed my marriage. I hurt my kids. But with Tom Ratliff’s help, for the first time in my life, I recovered from my fear of shame.”

Looking back at his descent into drugs, James observed how he had slipped down a hidden status hierarchy among fellow users, parallel to that Tommy Ratliff had discovered among the inebriated. “At the top of the hierarchy was the guy who can manage his drug habit and not get caught, and at first, I was that guy. I thought drugs were an adventure. I tried marijuana at 14, moved to pain pills in high school, and said to myself, ‘I’m just doing pills.’ Then when I was a husband and father and could hold down a job, I was proud of managing my habit. Then I was a divorced father. When my ex-wife wanted to move eight hours’ drive away to live near her sister, I moved into a drug house with five buddies and began my homelessness.

“We worked out our own way of judging ourselves and other addicts,” James commented. “When I was snorting oxycodone and hydrocodone, I told myself, ‘I’m just snorting. I’m holding down a job. I’m not a junkie.’ And that worked for a while. But then I got dopesick and I wasn’t holding down a job. And a guy came around, obviously a heroin pusher, and said, ‘Hey, I can make you feel better.’ But we looked down on heroin, and my buddies and I told him we were broke and ran the guy off. But in a few weeks, I was dopesick again and the pusher came back saying, ‘I’ll give it to you free.’ We took some heroin and felt better for a while.

“Then I told myself, ‘I’m snorting heroin, not shooting it.’ I snorted heroin for four or five years telling myself, ‘If you snort, you’re okay, but if you shoot up, you’re a junkie.’ But then I found the effect was stronger if it was shot into me. I didn’t like needles, so I asked a girl to shoot it into me, and I wasn’t shooting it myself, so that was better. But then two years later, the day came when I shot myself up. I became a junkie.”

Shortly after James had arrived at an emergency room unconscious from his fourth heroin overdose, the phone rang in the apartment of his sister, Ashley, a graduate student at the University of Tennessee. “I’d received emergency calls three times before, and every time my phone rang,” she would tell me later, “I dreaded it would be the call: ‘James is dead.’”

This time, the medics had found James without a pulse. But they had done CPR and revived him. “I just sobbed,” Ashley recalled. “I took a breath, got online, and spoke to James: ‘James, are you ready this time?’ He said, ‘I’m so sorry, Ashley; yes, I’m ready.’” In treatment, James recalls, “Tom told us about how he hit his own bottom and saw the line of ants, each carrying its tiny burden, one live ant carrying a dead ant. I understood. Tom Ratliff became the carrier ant willing to carry the dead—or nearly dead—ant. Me.”