Gubernatorial field

Hochul dominates gubernatorial field in early poll

By SALLY GOLDENBERG

Gov. Kathy Hochul is maintaining a healthy lead over her toughest challenger, state Attorney General Tish James, in her bid to win a term in her own right next year, according to a new Data for Progress poll shared with POLITICO.

Hochul leads James 36-22 when the poll includes former Gov. Andrew Cuomo, who resigned in August and has made no moves to reclaim his old seat. When he is omitted from the poll, the 15 percent support he received is fairly evenly divided among Hochul, James and others trailing the frontrunners.

Without Cuomo in the mix, Hochul leads James by a 39-24 margin, with 9 percent of respondents supporting city Public Advocate Jumaane Williams, who announced his entrance into the race last week. Long Island Rep. Tom Suozzi and New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio — neither of whom have officially announced campaigns — receive 7 percent and 5 percent, respectively. Another 16 percent are not committed to anyone.

In a head-to-head matchup between Hochul and James, the sitting governor would win 46-35 with 19 percent undecided.

Hochul would enjoy a more comfortable margin in a one-on-one fight with Williams, who came within striking distance of defeating her in the lieutenant governor’s race in 2018. In that contest, she would beat him 55-to-24, with 21 percent undecided.

Both Hochul, who automatically became governor when Cuomo quit, and James would make history as New York’s first elected female governor. James would be the nation’s first Black woman to lead a state. She and Williams would also be New York’s first elected Black governor — David Paterson, who is African American, slid into the role when Eliot Spitzer resigned in 2008 but Paterson never ran for a term of his own.

The female frontrunners each have 60 percent favorability ratings, compared to 42 percent for Williams. Respondents gave Suozzi a 23-12 favorability rating, with two-thirds saying they don’t know enough about him to form an opinion. His interest in the job may be waning if incoming Mayor Eric Adams appoints him as a deputy mayor, as he recently indicated he might.

Two politicians included in the poll — Cuomo and de Blasio — have the unenviable distinction of negative reviews outweighing positive ones. The outgoing mayor, who has already begun to hit up prospective donors, is viewed unfavorably by 60 percent of those polled, compared to 34 percent who gave him a thumbs up. Just 6 percent reported not knowing enough to form an opinion.

Data for Progress — a left-leaning think tank that fairly accurately polled the recent mayor’s race — surveyed 528 New Yorkers likely to vote in the Democratic primary next June, oversampling New York City residents to account for anticipated high turnout in the five boroughs.

The text message- and web-based poll was commissioned by political consultant Neal Kwatra on behalf of a donor whom he declined to identify. Kwatra said he is not working for any of the gubernatorial candidates and the Hotel Trades Council, for whom he consults, has yet to endorse. Hochul recently appealed to the influential union by steering much of her $450 million tourism program into helping unemployed hotel workers.

“Kathy Hochul has been incredibly efficient and effective out of the gate at using the bully pulpit of her office,” Kwatra said. “She has a very high favorability early on across the board with a ‘get stuff done/can do’ brand that is earning this upstate pol downstate plaudits.”

He said Williams and de Blasio “seem to constrain the attorney general’s ability to consolidate support in New York City,” despite her dominance among Black voters in the survey. In a head-to-head faceoff with Hochul, James would win among African Americans 55-26 percent. The split is almost exactly reversed among white voters.

The poll found the race to replace James as attorney general wide open, with former candidate Zephyr Teachout leading the crowded field but nearly half the respondents undecided.

Meanwhile, outgoing City Comptroller Scott Stringer, who lost the mayor’s race, would be locked in a dead heat against state Comptroller Tom DiNapoli should he choose to challenge him in the primary, the poll found.

Stringer, who represents the voter-rich Upper West Side of Manhattan, told POLITICO he is “gratified” by the results but added, "Maybe for the first time in a long time I don't have a game plan."