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A cautious peace for Afghanistan

By Secunder Kermani, BBC News, Kabul

US, Afghan and Taliban officials have all been careful to avoid calling today's agreement in Doha "a peace deal." But in Afghanistan, a sense of cautious optimism has been rising.

The Afghan war has been a bloody stalemate for years now, with the Taliban increasingly controlling or contesting more territory, yet unable to capture and hold major urban centres.

With this has come a growing realisation - by both the Taliban and the US - that neither side is capable of an outright military victory.

This deal now opens the door to wide-ranging talks between the militants and Afghan political leaders.

But these discussions will be much more challenging - somehow there will have to be a reconciliation between the Taliban's vision of an "Islamic Emirate" and the democratic modern Afghanistan that has been created since 2001.

The priority for many ordinary Afghans, at least in the short term, is a substantive reduction in violence. We'll find out in the coming weeks, when the warmer spring weather generally heralds the start of "fighting season", if that will happen.

What reaction has there been?

• UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres stressed "the importance of sustaining the nationwide reduction in violence, for the benefit of all Afghans"
• Nato Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg: "We went in together in 2001, we are going to adjust [troop levels] together and when the time is right, we are going to leave together, but we are only going to leave when conditions are right"
• UK Defence Secretary Ben Wallace: "I welcome this small but important step towards the chance for Afghans to live in peace, free from terrorism... We remain absolutely committed to building an Afghanistan that is a strong partner for decades to come"
• Donald Trump's former National Security Adviser, John Bolton, has criticised the deal, and said it endangered American lives by "legitimising" the Taliban

How did US-Taliban talks come about?

Since 2011, Qatar has hosted Taliban leaders who have moved there to discuss peace in Afghanistan. It has been a chequered process. A Taliban office was opened in 2013, and closed the same year amid rows over flags. Other attempts at talks stalled.

In December 2018, the militants announced they would meet US officials to try to find a "roadmap to peace". But the hard-line Islamist group continued to refuse to hold official talks with the Afghan government, whom they dismissed as American "puppets".

Following nine rounds of US-Taliban talks in Qatar, the two sides seemed close to an agreement.

Washington's top negotiator announced last September that the US would withdraw 5,400 troops from Afghanistan within 20 weeks as part of a deal agreed "in principle" with Taliban militants.

Days later, Mr Trump said the talks were "dead", after the group killed a US soldier. But within weeks the two sides resumed discussions behind the scenes.

A week ago the Taliban agreed to a "reduction of violence" - although Afghan officials say at least 22 soldiers and 14 civilians have been killed in Taliban attacks over that period.

Nearly 3,500 members of the international coalition forces have died in Afghanistan since the 2001 invasion.

The figures for Afghan civilians, militants and government forces are more difficult to quantify. In a February 2019 report, the UN said that more than 32,000 civilians had died. The Watson Institute at Brown University says 58,000 security personnel and 42,000 opposition combatants have been killed.