Omnipolicy

We're all 'omnipolicy' experts now

By NAHAL TOOSI

President Donald Trump’s Covid-19 diagnosis is drawing headlines around the world, altering the domestic political picture and raising national security concerns. It also reinforces a trend I’ve noticed becoming more pronounced: the lines that separated our policy realms are increasingly being erased. There’s no such thing as “foreign policy,” versus “health policy” versus “economic policy,” versus “domestic policy” versus “energy policy” anymore. It’s all collapsing into one ginormous, terrifying thing I’m going to call “omnipolicy.”

I know what you’re thinking: “It’s always been this way! Let me tell you about a thing called globalization.” But no, not really. Or at least, that’s not been the paradigm — not in the United States, anyway. The defense folks couldn’t tell you much about what the trade people were doing. Climate issues haven’t been at the center of U.S. national security the way they probably should be. Neither have domestic or economic issues, despite lip service from any number of presidential candidates.

From his first day in office, Trump has sped up the amalgamation of policy spheres, not least because of his focus on China, an “issue” that seems to encompass all of the individual policies listed above. It’s impossible to talk about Trump’s foreign policy without thinking of trade. Less noticed, but key: the Trump administration puts energy issues near the heart of its foreign policy. Then, there’s the coronavirus pandemic, which puts international health policy at the forefront of everything, whether Trump likes it or not. The trend toward an omnipolicy will likely continue even if Trump loses next month. Just look at Joe Biden’s foreign policy platform: in it, he includes things like raising the minimum wage and reforming the criminal justice system.

Breaking down policy silos is a goal of progressives trying to influence a potential President Biden, one of several phenomena I explore in a POLITICO Magazine story out this week. The more I reported, the more I wondered if any of us are really ready for a much more integrated policy future. Let’s just hope that the rise of omnipolicy does not mean the rise of the “omni-expert.”

Hi again! This is Nahal Toosi, POLITICO’s foreign affairs correspondent, filling in once more for the sublime Ryan Heath. Thank you for listening to my TED talk, above. This week, I thought I’d try a little experiment: I’ve been struck by how people in the world (ok fine, people on Twitter) keep saying, “Well, that wasn’t on my 2020 Bingo card!” whenever something wacky happens. So I asked a bunch of folks to tell me what they’d put on their 2021 Bingo cards a) If Trump wins this November or b) if Biden wins.

But before we get to the predictions, it’s worth remembering that no matter who wins next month, the business of running the world continues. I obtained some U.S. government documents in recent days that lay out some of what the Trump administration is planning for over the next two months. The below are some of the most interesting items. These are all tentative and may be changed, but they’re worth penciling into your calendars:

Oct. 14: Saudi Arabia’s foreign minister is expected to visit Washington, D.C., to meet with Secretary of State Mike Pompeo.

Oct. 21-22: A virtual U.S.-Turkey Liquified Natural Gas forum is in the works.

Oct. 25-30: Pompeo is slated to visit India, Sri Lanka, the Maldives and Indonesia.

Nov. 9: A U.S.-Egypt strategic dialogue may take place in Washington.

Nov. 16-17: A virtual 2020 Ministerial to Advance Religious Freedom or Belief is scheduled. Religious freedom is one of the few human rights issues the Trump administration emphasizes. These gatherings are a key part of that initiative.

Nov. 18-20: A virtual Global Health Security Agenda ministerial meeting is planned. Will the United States show up?

Nov. 20: Uzbekistan’s foreign minister may visit Washington, apparently to attend U.S.-Uzbekistan bilateral consultations.

2021 BINGO CARD PREDICTIONS

IF TRUMP WINS:

He will engage directly with the Palestinians; by that stage, Palestinian leaders may have no choice but to hear him out. — Jonathan Schanzer

He will deliver a diplomatic normalization agreement between Saudi Arabia and Israel. — Hagar Hajjar Chemali

The U.S. will leave NATO, Iraq will openly move into Iran’s orbit, and China will be the most influential voice at the United Nations. — Ivo Daalder

Someone will carry out an explosive nuclear test. — Alexandra Bell

There will be leaks, from barely concealed Russian sources, about the Trump Tower Moscow project that are designed to embarrass Trump, stoke U.S. partisan divisions and build an aura of Russian power toward America. — Jeff Rathke

The U.S. and Japan will complete a comprehensive, bilateral, economic free trade deal and intelligence-sharing structure pushed by new leadership in Tokyo and a White House desire for a major second term win. — Joshua Walker

IF BIDEN WINS:

He will follow Trump’s footsteps in pursuing normalization deals between Israel and more Arab states. He can do this while also seeking an opening with the Palestinians. — Jonathan Schanzer

He will re-launch a coalition to pursue a diplomatic solution to the conflict in Syria. — Hagar Hajjar Chemali

A new, more stringent climate agreement will supplant the Paris accords. — Ivo Daalder

It will spur an in-depth, possibly contentious, and long overdue conversation about presidential nuclear launch authority and whether imbuing one person with the power to destroy the planet is in keeping with our democracy. — Alexandra Bell

There will be a U.S.-German intelligence-sharing agreement that will serve to resolve friction over alleged U.S. eavesdropping on German leaders and set the stage for an intensified German-American focus on China. — Jeff Rathke

The United States will re-enter Trans Pacific Partnership negotiations and secure a major multilateral trade deal in Asia, gaining access to a growing economic region and fulfilling an Obama-era priority. — Joshua Walker

My own 2021 Bingo predictions? If Trump wins: He’ll declare that the Chinese government is committing genocide against Uighur Muslims, but will NOT say the same thing about the military’s vicious crackdown on Rohingya Muslims in Myanmar. Why? Because genocide declarations are increasingly more about politics than international law. Both the Uighur and the Rohingya cases may fit the legal definition of genocide. But the U.S. views China as a rival, while it’s trying to woo Myanmar away from China’s orbit. Why anger Myanmar’s leaders with a genocide allegation? If Biden wins: He’ll do the same thing.

Let us know if you have your own predictions. There remain lots of open spaces on our imaginary Bingo cards.