Surge of retirements

Republicans rattled after surge of retirements

The retirements could complicate the GOP's attempt to retake the House.

By MELANIE ZANONA

The House GOP has been smacked by a wave of retirements over the past few weeks — but some Republicans fear the worst is yet to come.

With the GOP relegated to the minority for the first time in eight years, a mix of veteran and vulnerable members have decided to call it quits instead of sticking around to see whether the party wins back power in 2020.

Over the past two weeks alone, five Republicans — including a member of the Republican leadership team — said they would not seek reelection. And that comes after Rep. Susan Brooks of Indiana, who leads recruitment efforts for the House GOP’s campaign arm and is one of the few Republican women left in the House, shocked her colleagues by announcing her retirement earlier this summer.

“Will there be more retirements? Most certainly there will be, for a range of reasons,” said Rep. Paul Mitchell (R-Mich.), who announced his own retirement last week.

Most of the seats being vacated thus far are in ruby-red districts, which Republicans will have no problems keeping. But at least two of the races have become more competitive in the wake of the retirement announcements, and more vulnerable members could jump ship if they don’t want to duke it out another term — especially if they are pessimistic about the GOP’s prospects in 2020.

“I believe there will be more to come,” said Rep. Tom Reed (R-N.Y.), co-chair of the bipartisan Problem Solvers Caucus. “Being in the minority weighs on members’ decision-making. … It is a new reality for many.”

Now, with members back home with their families and constituents for the long August recess, Capitol Hill is buzzing about who will be the next lawmaker to hang up their voting card.

Among those on the retirement watch list include older members, like Hal Rogers of Kentucky, Jim Sensenbrenner of Wisconsin and Don Young of Alaska; moderates, like Fred Upton of Michigan and Greg Walden of Oregon; lawmakers facing tougher races, like Texans Michael McCaul and Kenny Marchant, and Ann Wagner of Missouri; and the two members under indictment, Duncan Hunter of California and Chris Collins of New York.

History suggests that an uptick in retirements is common for the minority party after a shift in power. More than a dozen House Democrats left Congress after the 2010 tea party wave that swept Republicans back to power — and seven House Republicans have already announced their departures from politics, just seven months into the cycle.

“Unfortunately, I am afraid there may be more coming,” said Sarah Chamberlain, president and CEO of the Republican Main Street Partnership, which supports centrist Republicans in swing districts.

The pile-up of retirements could complicate the GOP’s path back to the majority after a bruising midterm election. Almost immediately after Rep. Pete Olson (R-Texas) announced he would not seek reelection last week, election forecasters shifted the race from “lean Republican” to “toss-up.”

Olson, who came to Congress in 2009, would have faced a competitive reelection battle in his district in the Houston suburbs, where he just narrowly fended off a Democratic challenger last year. And Democrats are dumping resources into Texas this cycle, hoping to build on their gains in the midterms.

“Texas is the biggest battleground state. Republicans know it,” said Abhi Rahman, communications director for the Texas Democratic Party. “We wouldn’t be surprised if there were more retirements because Republicans know their 2020 prospects in Texas are doomed.”

Brooks’ decision to leave Congress has also created an opening for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, which is targeting her seat in the northern Indianapolis suburbs for the first time this year. And Rep. Rob Woodall of Georgia, who narrowly won reelection in his suburban Atlanta district last fall, announced his retirement back in February.

“If it’s an open race, it is tougher to defend if it’s a toss-up or lean-Republican” district, said Mitchell. “It can change the dynamic pretty dramatically.”

The rest of the retirements, however, are in reliably Republican districts. But the exits have still been painful for the party. The other members calling it quits include veteran Rep. Mike Conaway of Texas, the top Republican on the House Agriculture Committee; Rep. Martha Roby of Alabama, one of just 13 Republican women in the House; Rep. Rob Bishop of Utah, ranking member on the Natural Resources Committee; and Mitchell, a two-term lawmaker and the sophomore class representative.

“Retirements are inevitable. They happen every cycle,” said Michael McAdams, national press secretary for the National Republican Congressional Committee.

But, he added, “whenever you lose a member, that’s tough.”

While many of the retiring members have cited family and personal reasons for their exits, some of their colleagues suspect another factor is at play: being on the back bench is no fun, especially after being in power for so many years. Around two-thirds of the GOP conference has never served in the minority, where Republicans have had to turn over control of the House floor, give up plush office spaces, slash their committee budgets and lose other perks.

And clawing back the majority could be an uphill climb after suburban women and moderates fled the party in a revolt over President Donald Trump, who will be at the top of the ticket next year.

“A lot of our members recognize it’s a challenging cycle,” said a senior GOP aide. “I would be shocked if we don’t have more retirements.”

Republicans also say the GOP’s self-imposed term limits for committee chairs could be fueling some of the retirements. The party implemented rules that limit committee leaders to three consecutive terms, which some worry encourages lawmakers to jump ship once their terms are up. Conaway and Bishop, for example, are both approaching the end of their tenures on their respective committees.

But other Republicans say it’s still better than the alternative. The term limits give younger members an opportunity to climb the leadership ranks, unlike Democrats, who have seen a bottle-neck of power on their side.

“It’s a feature, not a bug. We lose great Members at the end of their career, but we retain the young and ambitious at the beginning,” tweeted Parker Poling, the NRCC’s executive director.

Mitchell, however, pointed to an entirely different reason for his retirement: He is fed up with the increasing polarization in Congress and with some of Trump’s divisive rhetoric and tweets, which Republicans are asked about on a near-daily basis.

“It is demoralizing to watch the gridlock that happens,” Mitchell said. “Absolutely demoralizing.”