Botching chances.. No shit...

Trade insiders say Trump’s botching chances of a China deal

By ADAM BEHSUDI and DOUG PALMER

President Donald Trump says his belligerent, winner-takes-all negotiating tactics have “done well” for him over the years. But trade insiders say his aggressive moves with China are botching his chances for any long-term trade deal.

Though Trump over the weekend ratcheted down the rhetoric and insisted that talks with Beijing are back on, the White House Tuesday released no new details about upcoming negotiations. And Chinese officials continued to insist that they hadn’t sought a return to the table.

“It may have worked for his life as a New York businessman, but he has yet to conclude a deal that has significant gains for the United States,” said Jeff Moon, who was the top career-level China official at the U.S. Trade Representative’s office until just before the start of the Trump administration.

“Trump’s goals are to win, but he lacks any underlying values or long-term strategy,” Moon added.

A White House spokesperson disagreed in a written statement. There is "no doubt" what Trump considers a successful trade agreement, press spokesperson Judd Deere said in an email.

"President Trump is the first president to stand up to China and send a clear message that the United States will no longer tolerate unfair trade practices," Deere said. "We expect concrete results because that's what the American people expect and deserve."

Trump’s campaign of maximum pressure has manifested in a tit-for-tat tariff war with China that has left global markets reeling.

Last Friday, Trump said he would increase tariffs on almost all Chinese imports. The latest escalation came less than a month after he announced a new round of import penalties on a list of roughly $300 billion worth of Chinese goods that included children’s toys, clothing and smartphones.

The recent tariff actions have been the product of Trump’s outrage. The Aug. 1 decision to slap a 10 percent tariff on nearly all remaining Chinese imports came from his frustration that China failed to respond to U.S. demands in the latest round of talks in Shanghai in July. Last week’s decision came after China decided to retaliate against Trump’s tariff decision earlier in the month.

So far, Lighthizer and other senior administration officials have stood by Trump’s trade actions. Lighthizer generally supports Trump’s approach towards a country he considers an existential threat to U.S. economic dominance through the theft of American intellectual property and technology.

Supporters contend that Trump’s tough trade tactics and bellicose statements and tweets actually helped the United States reach a new trade deal with Canada and Mexico, a revised trade agreement with South Korea and a potential mini-agreement with Japan covering agriculture, autos and digital trade.

But trade insiders say Trump’s shoot-from-the-hip style has left officials working around decisions made quickly without regard for whether they'll make it harder to reach a deal with China.

“I think the president’s actions and words are making it increasingly difficult for a deal to come together,” said Wendy Cutler, a former senior U.S. trade negotiator who is now vice president of the Asia Society Policy Institute.

“He’s undermining the credibility of his negotiators,” she added.

One former U.S. trade negotiator who spoke on condition of anonymity said Trump deserved credit for his decision in 2018 to impose tariffs on an initial $50 billion worth of Chinese goods. That provided U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer far more leverage to address U.S. concerns about China’s unfair trade and intellectual property practices than previous U.S. negotiators have had.

But since then, Trump has “consistently undermined” his negotiators with his hardball tactics and contradictory statements, the former U.S. official said.

The president himself seemed to acknowledge Monday that Chinese President Xi Jinping has not responded to the tariff increases by conceding to U.S. demands.

“Now, when I raise and he raises, I raise and he raises, we can never catch up," Trump said. "We have to balance our trading relationship at least to an extent. And they were unwilling to do that."

Following a meeting of officials in Shanghai in July, the U.S. and China tentatively set plans to meet for another round of face-to-face talks in September in Washington. But the prospect for reaching an agreement looks increasingly remote, even though both sides seemed optimistic about clinching a deal back in the spring.

Chinese state media on Tuesday sought to undercut U.S. leverage in the trade talks, highlighting 20 directives the Chinese government released to boost domestic consumption. “China’s economy is increasingly driven internally, it’s more and more difficult for the US to press China to make concessions,” tweeted Hu Xijin, editor of the nationalist Chinese tabloid Global Times.

“The Chinese want to be seen as still willing to talk. They don’t want to be seen as walking away,” said James Green, who was the top trade official at the U.S. embassy in Beijing through the first year of the Trump administration.

It’s important for China to be viewed as the “reasonable party” amid Trump’s decisions to escalate the trade fight, he said.

Trump “doesn’t care about the specifics or the end outcome,” said Green, now a senior adviser at McLarty Associates. “What he cares about is driving the agenda.”

Few presidents have been as vocally engaged in negotiations as Trump. Most preferred instead to provide direction from behind the scenes and to let their trade officials do most of the talking.

In contrast, Trump comments almost daily on the state of the talks and has reacted publicly and furiously to any impediments China puts in the way of a deal.

“I don't think that the president's statements have been helpful,” said Anna Ashton, director of business advisory services at the US-China Business Council. “I think he's created a situation where he is a primary figure in the negotiations and an incredibly unpredictable one,”

Although Trump defends his erratic negotiating style, it’s difficult for the Chinese and others watching the talks to know how seriously to take any single statement or threat he makes.

Trump on Monday offered his usual flattery toward Xi, calling the leader “very outstanding in so many ways.” He also lauded what he viewed as a conciliatory statement from Vice Premier Liu He, China’s chief trade negotiator, although experts say the official’s remark didn’t reflect anything new.

But the week before, the president veered dangerously close to what could be considered a major affront to Beijing when questioned over Twitter whether Xi or Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell was “our bigger enemy.”

Cutler, the former senior U.S. negotiator, said unpredictability can be useful in negotiations but Trump has turned the tactic into a liability.

“The Chinese are still interested in a deal but not at any cost,” she said.

The next month will prove more irksome for Trump as China is unlikely to offer any concessions as it prepares for the 70th anniversary of the communist party on Oct. 1. The latest U.S. tariff increases are due to take effect on Sept. 1 and Oct. 1.

“Trump is basically punching against a brick wall,” said Moon, who added that the whole theme of events marking the birth of the communist party “is China’s rejuvenation after a period of foreign dominance.”