Ohio special election

Trump, Pelosi dominate Ohio special election

The final special congressional election before November could hinge on voters’ views of national party leaders as much as the two candidates on the ballot.

By ELENA SCHNEIDER

The home stretch of Tuesday’s special House election here has turned into not just a barometer of the national political environment heading into the midterms, but a referendum on the parties’ two top leaders: Donald Trump and Nancy Pelosi.

The president’s decision this week to inject himself into a district — split between rural voters who support him and well-educated suburbanites who are trending away from him — effectively puts him on the ballot alongside GOP hopeful Troy Balderson. And Republicans are going all out to bind Democrat Danny O’Connor to Pelosi, their favorite liberal bogeywoman.

The increasingly national complexion of the race has heightened interest in a contest that has tightened in the last month. As the final special House election ahead of the November midterms, the contest is also seen as one of the few indicators of a potential Democratic wave.

Trump will travel to the district on Saturday to campaign for Balderson, according to a senior party official, amid Republican fears that the race is narrowing. National Republican groups have already poured more than $3.3 million in TV ad spending to boost the GOP nominee, as well as appearances from other top-flight surrogates, including Vice President Mike Pence and a robocall recorded by Donald Trump Jr.

But Republicans, haunted by their defeat in a special election in Pennsylvania in March, are still worried that an energized Democratic base, bleeding support among independents in the suburbs and O’Connor’s wide lead in candidate fundraising puts this GOP-held district at risk. A new Monmouth University poll released Wednesday shows the race in a dead heat in the final days, far closer than the previous survey in early June, when Balderson had a discernible advantage.

Monmouth’s director of polling, Patrick Murray, said the “race has definitely tightened in the past month,” noting it’s a “similar trend” to the Pennsylvania special election in which Democrat Conor Lamb beat Republican Rick Saccone in a district that backed Trump by 20 percentage points in 2016.

Trump’s margin of victory in this Ohio district, 11 percentage points, is roughly half what it was in Pennsylvania — and even as Ohio swung sharply toward Trump statewide, his margin of victory in the district was roughly equal to Mitt Romney’s margin four years earlier, when he lost the state.

What Trump perhaps can deliver is a much-needed shot in the arm for GOP voters in the district. According to the Monmouth poll, roughly two-thirds of Democratic voters, 66 percent, express a high level of interest in the race, compared with 55 percent of Republicans.

But Trump’s involvement carries some risks for Balderson. The president's approval rating in the district is only 46 percent, according to the Monmouth poll, compared with 49 percent who disapprove. And a majority of independents, 59 percent, disapprove — one reason the poll shows O’Connor with an 18-point lead among independent voters.

While Trump is planning to parachute into the district this weekend, the latest pro-Balderson ad from the Congressional Leadership Fund — the well-heeled super PAC with ties to House Speaker Paul Ryan — actually features one of Trump’s political nemeses: Ohio Gov. John Kasich. Kasich calls Balderson “a partner of mine” in the state Legislature and says, “Troy shares our common-sense values on the important issues that face us today.”

Attracting both Trump and Kasich Republicans is a necessity for Balderson.

“The Democrats picked the right kind of candidate to appeal to those middle-of-the-road voters, the Kasich, anti-Trump voters, as he’s been able to run center-left, like Conor Lamb did,” said an Ohio GOP operative, granted anonymity to discuss the race candidly. “But Troy, based on his record in the Legislature, can keep them in the fold.”

Balderson, who emerged from a nasty primary battle in May, touts his position as the candidate of both Trump and Kasich. At a recent visit to Donald’s Donuts in Zanesville, Ohio, he told two dozen volunteers that he’s united the Republican Party in a way that’s not often been done before: “I’ve actually brought two of the opposites together, and it’s pretty amazing to be able to do that.”

Added state Rep. Brian Hill, a GOP supporter: “Democrats think they have a chance because they think they’ve caught Republicans being complacent here, but we’re not. Those endorsements will help the base get excited.”

While Balderson tends to his base, O’Connor has been trying to win over the independents and Republicans necessary to compete in solid-red territory in the Columbus suburbs. He has rejected popular liberal platforms, like a single-payer health care system and abolishing the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement agency.

O’Connor also repeated Lamb’s tactic of promising to reject Pelosi as leader, airing his first and closing TV ads on calling for a “new generation of leadership.”

But in an interview with MSNBC’s Chris Matthews last week, O’Connor flubbed his answer on the Democratic leader. Seven times, O’Connor was asked whether he would back Pelosi for speaker. Over and over, he repeats: “We need new leadership,” before relenting when Matthews asks about a vote on the floor: “I would support whoever the Democratic Party put forward” — in other words, Pelosi, if it came to that.

O'Connor's gaffe over Pelosi is indicative of the delicate dance performed by more than two dozen Democratic challengers on the ballot this fall who have said they won’t be voting for Pelosi. In order to flip the House, Democrats are relying on candidates who say they wouldn't support handing the speaker's gavel back to Pelosi in Republican-held seats in places like Kansas, New Jersey and North Carolina.

Republicans have seized on O’Connor’s interview as they try to blunt his momentum in a once-safe GOP seat that's now much closer than operatives expected. The Congressional Leadership Fund immediately hit him with TV ads that splice together clips of O’Connor’s comments, drilling him on his support for Pelosi.

It could be a blueprint for Republicans, who have been stymied this year by Democrats' ability to deflect GOP attempts to link their candidates with Pelosi, who is unpopular in many of these districts after years of Republican attacks.

“We had two jobs: Turn Danny O’Connor into a Democrat, and get our voters out," said Rep. Steve Stivers (R-Ohio), chairman of the NRCC. "And over the last week, Danny has proven to everyone he’s a Democrat, when he went on TV and said I’ll vote whoever the Democrats put up for speaker. The interview exposed who he is.”

And CLF’s executive director, Corry Bliss, said it’s “not credible, nor believable, for Democratic candidates — who are, one, funded by Pelosi and two, agree with her on every single issue — to claim that they don’t support her in order to get elected.”

O’Connor, for his part, insisted that his comments were “misconstrued” by Republicans and that everyday voters “care more about who the [Ohio State University football team's] quarterback is this fall more than who the next speaker is going to be,” he said in an interview.

He’s had one big advantage over his GOP rival: fundraising. O’Connor brought in nearly four times as much cash in the final weeks of the race, according to their final FEC reports submitted last week. Spending from Republican outside groups has helped shore up Balderson, while the DCCC has kicked in only $690,000.

O’Connor knows his race on Tuesday is being closely watched as a bellwether for the midterm elections — even though the same two candidates will square off on the ballot Nov. 6.

“If we’re going to retake the House, we have to win here,” O’Connor said. “My shoulders don’t feel heavy at all,” he added with a laugh.

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