Five Democratic primaries

‘Seismic’: Where the Ocasio-Cortez earthquake might hit next

Five Democratic primaries will help show the state of the progressive insurgency.

By ELENA SCHNEIDER

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez's dramatic June primary upset in New York City injected hope and energy into underdog Democratic primary campaigns across the country. But it’s unclear whether the conditions are in place for other liberal insurgents to pull off similar stunners.

Voters in 19 states will choose nominees in House primaries over the next six weeks, and Ocasio-Cortez has given her advice — and endorsement — to a handful of similar candidates, including Brent Welder, who is running in a Kansas battleground district, and Ayanna Pressley, who is challenging a Democratic incumbent in Massachusetts.

Not every contest neatly fits the Ocasio-Cortez model. This year’s remaining primaries include a handful of progressive-versus-moderate contests as well as some insurgent campaigns that divide more along local political than partywide ideological lines.

But even if left-wing candidates don't win their primaries, Ocasio-Cortez’s shocking defeat of House Democratic Caucus Chairman Joe Crowley has already pushed the eventual nominees to the left, with some adopting policies like Medicare for all.

“Ocasio-Cortez's victory is seismic,” said Ben Tulchin, a Democratic pollster who worked on Sen. Bernie Sanders' 2016 presidential campaign. “Now you have a half-dozen issue positions that candidates are embracing, even moderate candidates are embracing, that wouldn't have happened without progressive candidates in these primaries pushing for it.”

Here are five primaries to watch for potential upsets and to track the progressive insurgency.

Massachusetts' 7th District

Boston City Councilwoman Ayanna Pressley is hoping that local Democrats embrace her run against veteran Rep. Mike Capuano the same way that Ocasio-Cortez's backers boosted her past Crowley.

"Her win was emboldening for many people to make the decision to get off the fence and to be supportive, [because] a victory is now at least plausible, when for many, previously, they were really seeing how uphill it is," Pressley said in an interview with POLITICO. "Our democracy is at a crossroads, and I know some find my candidacy disruptive and uncomfortable and even traitorous, but I think it's incredibly loyal."

Pressley said her campaign saw a bump in its social media following and fundraising, bringing in $20,000, immediately after Ocasio-Cortez's victory and endorsement. This week, Pressley got a boost from Attorney General Maura Healey, who endorsed her campaign and sent a fundraising email on her behalf, The Boston Globe reported.

But finding room to the left of Capuano is difficult. Pressley has called for defunding the Immigration and Customs Enforcement agency, a move that's gained currency among liberal activists. Capuano, for his part, voted "present" on the motion to voice support for ICE last week. "Mike is one of the most progressive members of the House and a fighter who takes on Donald Trump every single day," Capuano spokeswoman Audrey Coulter said in a statement.

And Capuano was preparing for a tough primary battle even before Crowley's defeat. Pressley acknowledged that the congressman, unlike Crowley, "has not been asleep at the wheel and it's been competitive since the very beginning," she said.

Kansas' 3rd District

Brent Welder also seeks to take advantage of Ocasio-Cortez's tailwind. The attorney and Sanders backer rallied alongside Ocasio-Cortez and the Vermont senator last weekend, hoping to gin up turnout in this three-way primary to take on Rep. Kevin Yoder (R-Kan.). Ocasio-Cortez and Sanders have also sent out fundraising emails on his behalf, and Welder led his Democratic opponents in fundraising.

But local operatives believe that the primary is a jump ball between Welder, teacher Tom Niermann and attorney Sharice Davids, all of whom are making strong appeals to progressives. (Andrea Ramsey, an attorney and early front-runner, dropped out because of allegations of sexual harassment.)

Niermann is running TV ads on gun safety in schools and "presents himself as the most electable because he attracts a lot of moderate Republicans and doesn't scare away Yoder voters," said Chris Reeves, a Democratic National Committeeman from Kansas. Davids, an openly gay Native American, has highlighted her compelling personal story, releasing a 65-second video that describes her as a "fighter" and shows her training in a boxing ring.

"When there's a field of men, there's a real desire, in Democratic primaries, to pick a woman," Reeves said. "When Andrea Ramsey dropped out, there was a real void, and Sharice was able to pick a lot of that up."

Arizona's 2nd District

Matt Heinz, a doctor and three-time congressional candidate, is blasting former Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick over her environmental record, attacking her in TV ads for "[blocking] Obama's clean air laws" and "protecting corporate profits, not progressive values," a strategy aimed at outflanking his party-endorsed opponent on her left.

Heinz drew a comparison between his own race and Ocasio-Cortez, calling it "another match-up with an establishment-supported candidate who's been in and out of office for a long time against a more identifiably progressive candidate."

A similar playbook has worked before in 2018. Kara Eastman, a Nebraska social worker, scored a Democratic primary upset over Brad Ashford, a moderate former congressman, in an Omaha-based battleground district earlier this year. But Eastman, unlike Heinz, was a first-time candidate. Heinz served in the state legislature and ran for Congress in 2012 and 2016.

Kirkpatrick, who left her House seat for a Senate bid in 2016, holds an edge in fundraising, along with support from groups like EMILY's List.

"Matt Heinz is running a Fox News-style negative campaign, won't explain his NRA vote [in the Legislature] and doesn't live in the district," said Rodd McLeod, a Democratic strategist who's working with Kirkpatrick's campaign.

Florida's 5th District

The race between former Jacksonville Mayor Alvin Brown and Rep. Al Lawson, who hails from Tallahassee, is as much about geography as it is about ideology.

Brown, who calls himself a "pragmatic progressive" and represented the district's largest population center as mayor, has gone after the congressman for his record on guns, tagging him as "the NRA's favorite congressman" for a 2005 vote in the Florida legislature to pass the controversial "Stand Your Ground" laws.

"People are tired of the status quo," Brown said.

But Phillip Singleton, a spokesman for Lawson's campaign, said Brown "wasn't a progressive until he left Jacksonville," noting that the ex-mayor did not take a position on a local effort to expand city ordinance protections to include gay, lesbian, bisexual and transgender people. Lawson told POLITICO Florida in March that he "served in the Florida legislature for 28 years and never got the support of the NRA."

"This is straight-up regional, parochial politics," said one Florida Democratic consultant who is not working on the race. "Alvin is not a career progressive and Lawson is not a soft Republican."

Brown and Lawson are both raising cash to battle it out with ads ahead of the Aug. 28 primary.

Michigan's 13th District

Rashida Tlaib, a former state legislator, said that like Ocasio-Cortez, she's "standing up against the establishment" in the open race to replace former Rep. John Conyers in the Detroit-based district.

"Here in Detroit politics, we have what you call 'wait your turn,'" said Tlaib, who has racked up progressive endorsements from groups like Justice Democrats and the Progressive Change Campaign Committee. "I won't do that."

Tlaib has several primary opponents for the deep-blue seat, including Detroit City Council President Brenda Jones and Westland Mayor Bill Wild. State Sen. Ian Conyers, great-nephew of the congressman, is also running, but he did not receive his great-uncle's endorsement.

Local operatives said the differences in the primary are less about policy and more about profile.

"This being a moderate-versus-progressive donnybrook is just not true," said Joe DiSano, a Democratic consultant based in Michigan. "There's not a dime's worth of daylight between these candidates on the issues. Maybe there is stylistically, but not on the issues."

A recent survey from Target-Insyght, a Michigan-based polling firm, found the race a dead heat, with Tlaib, Jones and Wild all polling within a point of one another.